Mouvement Réformateur
Voting Intentions
Last result: 21.4% (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 20.7% | 19.1–22.4% | 18.6–22.9% | 18.3–23.3% | 17.5–24.1% |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
20.8% | 19.2–22.5% | 18.8–23.0% | 18.4–23.4% | 17.7–24.3% |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20.5% | 18.9–22.2% | 18.5–22.7% | 18.1–23.1% | 17.4–24.0% |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
19.9% | 18.4–21.6% | 17.9–22.1% | 17.6–22.5% | 16.8–23.3% |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
20.6% | 18.3–23.3% | 17.7–24.0% | 17.1–24.7% | 16.0–26.0% |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19.7% | 18.2–21.4% | 17.7–21.9% | 17.3–22.3% | 16.6–23.1% |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19.8% | 18.2–21.5% | 17.8–22.0% | 17.4–22.4% | 16.7–23.2% |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
18.5% | 17.0–20.1% | 16.6–20.6% | 16.2–21.0% | 15.5–21.8% |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
19.7% | 17.6–22.1% | 17.0–22.8% | 16.5–23.4% | 15.5–24.6% |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20.4% | 18.8–22.1% | 18.4–22.6% | 18.0–23.0% | 17.3–23.8% |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22.0% | 20.4–23.8% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.6–24.7% | 18.8–25.6% |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19.2% | 17.7–20.9% | 17.3–21.4% | 16.9–21.8% | 16.2–22.6% |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20.1% | 18.6–21.8% | 18.1–22.3% | 17.8–22.7% | 17.0–23.5% |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22.3% | 20.6–24.1% | 20.1–24.6% | 19.8–25.0% | 19.0–25.9% |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20.3% | 18.7–22.1% | 18.2–22.6% | 17.8–23.0% | 17.1–23.9% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
18.8% | 17.2–20.4% | 16.8–20.9% | 16.4–21.3% | 15.7–22.1% |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20.1% | 18.5–21.9% | 18.1–22.4% | 17.7–22.8% | 17.0–23.7% |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20.5% | 18.9–22.2% | 18.5–22.7% | 18.1–23.1% | 17.4–24.0% |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19.2% | 17.6–20.9% | 17.2–21.3% | 16.9–21.7% | 16.2–22.6% |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
23.9% | 20.9–27.4% | 20.0–28.4% | 19.3–29.3% | 17.9–31.0% |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20.5% | 18.9–22.2% | 18.5–22.7% | 18.1–23.1% | 17.3–24.0% |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19.6% | 18.0–21.3% | 17.6–21.8% | 17.2–22.2% | 16.5–23.1% |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20.5% | 19.0–22.3% | 18.5–22.8% | 18.1–23.2% | 17.4–24.0% |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22.6% | 20.9–24.4% | 20.5–24.9% | 20.1–25.3% | 19.3–26.2% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Mouvement Réformateur.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 14% | 96% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 27% | 82% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 29% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 21.5–22.5% | 18% | 26% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 6% | 8% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 20 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 18 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
18 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
17 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
18 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 14–21 | 13–22 |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
18 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 14–20 | 14–21 |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
16 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–20 |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
18 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 13–22 |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–21 |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–22 |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
18 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 14–21 | 14–21 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–20 |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
21 | 18–25 | 18–26 | 17–26 | 15–28 |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
18 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–21 |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 17–26 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Mouvement Réformateur.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 16 | 7% | 96% | |
| 17 | 15% | 89% | |
| 18 | 26% | 74% | Median |
| 19 | 20% | 49% | |
| 20 | 15% | 29% | Last Result |
| 21 | 13% | 13% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |