Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 29 November–6 December 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 23.8% | 22.1–25.6% | 21.6–26.1% | 21.2–26.6% | 20.5–27.5% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 20.5% | 19.0–22.3% | 18.5–22.8% | 18.1–23.2% | 17.4–24.0% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 17.2% | 15.7–18.8% | 15.3–19.3% | 15.0–19.7% | 14.3–20.5% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 16.5% | 15.0–18.1% | 14.6–18.5% | 14.3–18.9% | 13.6–19.7% |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 11.0% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.5% | 7.2–10.8% | 6.8–11.4% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.5–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–21 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 14 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 15 | 13–16 | 11–17 | 10–17 | 10–17 |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 10 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 19 | 10% | 97% | |
| 20 | 25% | 87% | |
| 21 | 39% | 62% | Median |
| 22 | 16% | 23% | |
| 23 | 6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 24 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 16 | 4% | 97% | |
| 17 | 10% | 93% | |
| 18 | 30% | 83% | |
| 19 | 33% | 52% | Median |
| 20 | 11% | 20% | Last Result |
| 21 | 8% | 8% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 13 | 17% | 98% | |
| 14 | 47% | 81% | Median |
| 15 | 17% | 33% | |
| 16 | 10% | 16% | |
| 17 | 4% | 7% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 2% | 97% | |
| 12 | 4% | 95% | |
| 13 | 5% | 91% | |
| 14 | 10% | 86% | |
| 15 | 61% | 76% | Median |
| 16 | 10% | 15% | |
| 17 | 5% | 5% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Centre démocrate humaniste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 15% | 95% | |
| 6 | 55% | 80% | Median |
| 7 | 15% | 25% | |
| 8 | 7% | 10% | |
| 9 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 20% | |
| 2 | 2% | 13% | |
| 3 | 6% | 11% | |
| 4 | 5% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 54 | 100% | 52–56 | 51–56 | 50–57 | 49–59 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 45 | 50 | 100% | 48–52 | 47–52 | 46–53 | 45–54 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 45 | 41 | 99.3% | 39–44 | 39–44 | 38–45 | 37–46 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste | 43 | 42 | 98.5% | 40–43 | 39–44 | 38–44 | 36–46 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 42 | 39 | 86% | 37–41 | 37–42 | 36–43 | 35–44 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 39 | 84% | 37–41 | 37–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 35 | 8% | 33–37 | 33–38 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 36 | 6% | 33–37 | 32–38 | 31–38 | 30–39 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 33 | 0.8% | 31–35 | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–38 |
| Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 22 | 29 | 0% | 27–31 | 26–32 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste | 33 | 27 | 0% | 25–29 | 25–30 | 24–30 | 23–32 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste | 30 | 25 | 0% | 23–27 | 22–27 | 21–28 | 21–29 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 51 | 5% | 96% | |
| 52 | 10% | 90% | |
| 53 | 21% | 81% | |
| 54 | 34% | 60% | Median |
| 55 | 15% | 26% | Last Result |
| 56 | 7% | 11% | |
| 57 | 3% | 4% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 46 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 47 | 5% | 97% | |
| 48 | 10% | 92% | |
| 49 | 15% | 81% | |
| 50 | 35% | 67% | Median |
| 51 | 21% | 31% | |
| 52 | 6% | 10% | |
| 53 | 3% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 2% | 99.3% | Majority |
| 39 | 13% | 97% | |
| 40 | 14% | 84% | |
| 41 | 29% | 70% | Median |
| 42 | 20% | 41% | |
| 43 | 10% | 21% | |
| 44 | 6% | 11% | |
| 45 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 46 | 2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.5% | Majority |
| 39 | 4% | 97% | |
| 40 | 12% | 92% | |
| 41 | 19% | 80% | |
| 42 | 42% | 62% | Median |
| 43 | 13% | 20% | Last Result |
| 44 | 4% | 6% | |
| 45 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 10% | 95% | |
| 38 | 17% | 86% | Majority |
| 39 | 36% | 68% | Median |
| 40 | 18% | 33% | |
| 41 | 8% | 15% | |
| 42 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 43 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 37 | 11% | 96% | |
| 38 | 17% | 84% | Majority |
| 39 | 21% | 67% | |
| 40 | 19% | 47% | Median |
| 41 | 20% | 28% | |
| 42 | 6% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 10% | 96% | |
| 34 | 15% | 86% | |
| 35 | 34% | 71% | Last Result, Median |
| 36 | 21% | 37% | |
| 37 | 8% | 16% | |
| 38 | 5% | 8% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 32 | 2% | 97% | |
| 33 | 5% | 95% | Last Result |
| 34 | 11% | 90% | |
| 35 | 20% | 79% | |
| 36 | 40% | 59% | Median |
| 37 | 13% | 19% | |
| 38 | 5% | 6% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98% | |
| 31 | 8% | 94% | |
| 32 | 19% | 86% | Last Result |
| 33 | 39% | 68% | Median |
| 34 | 17% | 28% | |
| 35 | 8% | 12% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 26 | 3% | 97% | |
| 27 | 7% | 94% | |
| 28 | 20% | 87% | |
| 29 | 31% | 67% | Median |
| 30 | 20% | 37% | |
| 31 | 11% | 17% | |
| 32 | 4% | 6% | |
| 33 | 2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 25 | 11% | 96% | |
| 26 | 23% | 86% | |
| 27 | 36% | 62% | Median |
| 28 | 14% | 26% | |
| 29 | 7% | 13% | |
| 30 | 3% | 6% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 5% | 97% | |
| 23 | 9% | 92% | |
| 24 | 28% | 83% | |
| 25 | 32% | 55% | Median |
| 26 | 13% | 23% | |
| 27 | 7% | 11% | |
| 28 | 3% | 4% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 29 November–6 December 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 983
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.65%