Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 5–9 September 2014

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30.9% 31.1% 28.9–33.4% 28.2–34.1% 27.7–34.7% 26.6–35.8%
MR 26.7% 26.6% 24.5–28.9% 23.9–29.5% 23.4–30.1% 22.5–31.2%
cdH 15.2% 12.7% 11.2–14.5% 10.8–15.0% 10.4–15.5% 9.7–16.3%
Ecolo 8.6% 8.4% 7.2–10.0% 6.9–10.4% 6.6–10.8% 6.0–11.6%
PTB 5.8% 8.1% 6.9–9.6% 6.6–10.1% 6.3–10.5% 5.8–11.2%
Parti Populaire 4.9% 5.0% 4.1–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.6–7.0% 3.2–7.6%
DéFI 2.5% 1.8% 1.3–2.6% 1.1–2.9% 1.0–3.1% 0.8–3.5%
La Droite 1.4% 1.6% 1.2–2.5% 1.0–2.7% 0.9–2.9% 0.7–3.3%
PIRATE 0.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.1% 0.4–2.5%
Wallonie d’Abord 0.4% 0.7% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%
Debout les Belges 0.8% 0.7% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%
FW 0.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%
R.W.F. 0.5% 0.4% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.1–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30 28 25–31 24–31 23–31 23–34
MR 25 24 20–25 20–26 20–26 18–27
cdH 13 11 8–12 8–12 7–12 6–13
Ecolo 4 6 5–6 4–7 4–7 2–9
PTB 2 6 4–7 4–8 4–8 3–8
Parti Populaire 1 1 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–5
DéFI 0 0 0 0 0 0
La Droite 0 0 0 0 0 0
PIRATE 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Wallonie d’Abord 0 0 0 0 0 0
Debout les Belges 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
FW 0 0 0 0 0 0
R.W.F. 0 0 0 0 0 0

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 7% 97%  
25 4% 91%  
26 1.3% 87%  
27 33% 86%  
28 20% 53% Median
29 16% 34%  
30 6% 18% Last Result
31 10% 11%  
32 0.9% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.6%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.8% 99.9%  
19 1.0% 99.0%  
20 9% 98%  
21 14% 89%  
22 5% 75%  
23 18% 70%  
24 16% 52% Median
25 30% 35% Last Result
26 4% 5%  
27 0.8% 1.3%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 1.4% 98%  
8 12% 97%  
9 13% 85%  
10 7% 72%  
11 23% 65% Median
12 41% 42%  
13 1.3% 2% Last Result
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 1.1% 99.8%  
3 0.5% 98.7%  
4 8% 98% Last Result
5 26% 90%  
6 56% 65% Median
7 6% 8%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.6%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 2% 100%  
4 32% 98%  
5 7% 66%  
6 30% 59% Median
7 23% 29%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100%  
1 35% 72% Last Result, Median
2 16% 37%  
3 16% 21%  
4 3% 5%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

La Droite

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

PIRATE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PIRATE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 69% 72% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Wallonie d’Abord

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wallonie d’Abord page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Debout les Belges

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout les Belges page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 1.0%  
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

FW

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FW page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

R.W.F.

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the R.W.F. page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS – MR – Ecolo 59 57 100% 54–60 54–61 54–61 53–62
PS – MR 55 52 100% 48–54 48–55 47–56 47–57
PS – cdH – Ecolo 47 44 99.9% 41–46 40–46 40–48 39–50
PS – cdH – PTB 45 44 99.9% 41–47 41–48 40–48 39–49
MR – cdH – Ecolo 42 39 77% 36–42 36–42 35–43 34–44
PS – Ecolo – PTB 36 39 69% 36–43 35–43 35–43 34–45
PS – cdH 43 39 80% 35–40 35–41 34–42 33–44
MR – cdH 38 33 2% 31–37 31–37 30–37 29–38
PS – PTB 32 33 2% 31–37 30–37 29–37 28–38
MR – Ecolo 29 29 0% 26–31 26–31 26–32 24–33

PS – MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.8% 99.5%  
54 21% 98.8%  
55 7% 78%  
56 16% 71%  
57 26% 55%  
58 11% 29% Median
59 5% 18% Last Result
60 7% 12%  
61 4% 5%  
62 0.9% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

PS – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.6%  
48 18% 97%  
49 10% 80%  
50 9% 70%  
51 7% 61%  
52 35% 54% Median
53 6% 19%  
54 7% 13%  
55 3% 6% Last Result
56 3% 3%  
57 0.6% 0.7%  
58 0% 0%  

PS – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9% Majority
39 0.9% 99.8%  
40 7% 99.0%  
41 2% 92%  
42 13% 90%  
43 7% 76%  
44 26% 70%  
45 21% 44% Median
46 18% 23%  
47 2% 5% Last Result
48 1.3% 3%  
49 0.7% 1.3%  
50 0.2% 0.7%  
51 0.5% 0.5%  
52 0% 0%  

PS – cdH – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9% Majority
39 1.1% 99.6%  
40 3% 98.5%  
41 5% 95%  
42 8% 90%  
43 27% 82%  
44 12% 55%  
45 23% 43% Last Result, Median
46 8% 19%  
47 6% 11%  
48 4% 5%  
49 0.7% 0.9%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

MR – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.9% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.0%  
36 10% 97%  
37 11% 87%  
38 14% 77% Majority
39 15% 62%  
40 6% 48%  
41 9% 42% Median
42 30% 33% Last Result
43 1.4% 3%  
44 1.1% 1.3%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

PS – Ecolo – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.9% 99.8%  
35 4% 98.9%  
36 21% 94% Last Result
37 5% 74%  
38 11% 69% Majority
39 17% 58%  
40 9% 41% Median
41 10% 32%  
42 11% 21%  
43 9% 10%  
44 0.3% 1.1%  
45 0.8% 0.8%  
46 0% 0%  

PS – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 4% 99.4%  
35 6% 95%  
36 7% 90%  
37 3% 82%  
38 17% 80% Majority
39 40% 62% Median
40 17% 22%  
41 3% 6%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 1.2% Last Result
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0% 0%  

MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.8%  
30 2% 98%  
31 11% 96%  
32 24% 85%  
33 14% 61%  
34 3% 47%  
35 9% 44% Median
36 16% 35%  
37 17% 19%  
38 2% 2% Last Result, Majority
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

PS – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.8%  
29 2% 98.8%  
30 6% 97%  
31 19% 91%  
32 14% 71% Last Result
33 13% 57%  
34 6% 44% Median
35 12% 38%  
36 14% 26%  
37 9% 11%  
38 2% 2% Majority
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.7%  
25 0.3% 98.5%  
26 10% 98%  
27 20% 88%  
28 5% 68%  
29 14% 63% Last Result
30 33% 50% Median
31 13% 17%  
32 2% 4%  
33 0.9% 1.3%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations