MR
Voting Intentions
Last result: 26.7% (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 20.5% | 17.4–23.9% | 16.8–24.5% | 16.4–25.0% | 15.6–25.9% |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22.7% | 21.1–24.5% | 20.6–25.0% | 20.2–25.4% | 19.4–26.3% |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
18.3% | 16.8–20.0% | 16.4–20.4% | 16.0–20.9% | 15.4–21.7% |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19.4% | 17.9–21.1% | 17.4–21.6% | 17.1–22.0% | 16.3–22.8% |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
19.9% | 18.3–21.6% | 17.9–22.0% | 17.5–22.5% | 16.8–23.3% |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20.7% | 19.2–22.5% | 18.7–22.9% | 18.3–23.4% | 17.6–24.2% |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20.6% | 19.0–22.3% | 18.6–22.8% | 18.2–23.2% | 17.5–24.1% |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
24.1% | 22.5–25.9% | 22.0–26.4% | 21.6–26.9% | 20.8–27.7% |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
21.2% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.1–23.4% | 18.7–23.8% | 18.0–24.7% |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
22.1% | 20.5–23.9% | 20.0–24.4% | 19.6–24.8% | 18.9–25.7% |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
21.4% | 19.8–23.0% | 19.4–23.5% | 19.0–23.9% | 18.3–24.8% |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
21.4% | 19.7–23.1% | 19.3–23.6% | 18.9–24.1% | 18.1–24.9% |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
23.2% | 21.1–25.5% | 20.5–26.1% | 20.1–26.7% | 19.1–27.8% |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
22.4% | 20.4–24.5% | 19.9–25.1% | 19.4–25.7% | 18.5–26.7% |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
20.7% | 19.1–22.4% | 18.7–22.9% | 18.3–23.3% | 17.5–24.1% |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
19.4% | 17.8–21.1% | 17.3–21.6% | 17.0–22.0% | 16.2–22.8% |
| 28–24 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
22.8% | 20.8–25.0% | 20.2–25.6% | 19.7–26.1% | 18.8–27.2% |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
22.3% | 20.6–24.1% | 20.2–24.6% | 19.8–25.0% | 19.0–25.9% |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
22.4% | 20.5–24.6% | 19.9–25.2% | 19.5–25.7% | 18.5–26.8% |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
20.1% | 18.6–21.8% | 18.1–22.3% | 17.8–22.7% | 17.0–23.6% |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
23.9% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.7–26.2% | 21.3–26.7% | 20.5–27.6% |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
23.1% | 21.5–24.9% | 21.0–25.4% | 20.6–25.8% | 19.9–26.6% |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
24.7% | 23.0–26.6% | 22.5–27.2% | 22.0–27.6% | 21.2–28.6% |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
23.3% | 21.7–25.1% | 21.2–25.6% | 20.8–26.0% | 20.0–26.9% |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
24.3% | 22.2–26.5% | 21.6–27.2% | 21.1–27.7% | 20.1–28.8% |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
25.4% | 23.4–27.7% | 22.8–28.3% | 22.3–28.9% | 21.4–29.9% |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
26.1% | 24.3–27.9% | 23.8–28.5% | 23.4–28.9% | 22.5–29.9% |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
25.2% | 23.2–27.5% | 22.6–28.1% | 22.1–28.6% | 21.1–29.7% |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
26.0% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.6–29.6% |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
25.3% | 23.6–27.0% | 23.1–27.5% | 22.7–28.0% | 21.9–28.9% |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
24.0% | 21.9–26.2% | 21.4–26.8% | 20.9–27.4% | 19.9–28.5% |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
26.6% | 24.5–28.9% | 23.9–29.5% | 23.4–30.1% | 22.5–31.2% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for MR.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 9% | 97% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 16% | 88% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 14% | 72% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 8% | 58% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 9% | 50% | Median |
| 21.5–22.5% | 13% | 41% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 14% | 28% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 9% | 14% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 27.5–28.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 25 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 18 | 15–22 | 14–22 | 14–22 | 13–23 |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 16–23 |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
15 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 12–20 |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
18 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
16 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–20 |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
18 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–22 |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
22 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 18–25 |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 16–22 |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
20 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
19 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 15–23 |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
20 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 16–23 |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
21 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 16–26 |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 16–25 |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
19 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 15–22 |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
18 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| 28–24 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
21 | 20–24 | 19–26 | 17–26 | 16–27 |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
20 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
22 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 16–25 |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
20 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
22 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
22 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–26 | 19–26 |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
23 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 20–26 | 19–26 |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
23 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–26 | 19–26 |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
22 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
23 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–26 | 19–27 |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
25 | 23–26 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 21–28 |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
23 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 20–28 |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
24 | 23–26 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 21–28 |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
22 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–27 |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
24 | 20–25 | 20–26 | 20–26 | 18–27 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for MR.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 27% | 94% | |
| 16 | 8% | 66% | |
| 17 | 5% | 58% | |
| 18 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 19 | 12% | 48% | |
| 20 | 12% | 36% | |
| 21 | 14% | 24% | |
| 22 | 10% | 10% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |