PS

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 30.9% (General Election of 25 May 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 26.6% 23.6–29.7% 23.0–30.4% 22.5–30.9% 21.7–31.9%
6–14 May 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 28.5% 26.7–30.4% 26.2–30.9% 25.8–31.4% 25.0–32.3%
25 March–14 April 2019 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 24.7% 23.0–26.5% 22.5–27.0% 22.1–27.5% 21.3–28.3%
5–11 February 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.2–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–28.0%
19 November–8 December 2018 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 25.4% 23.7–27.2% 23.2–27.7% 22.8–28.2% 22.0–29.1%
27 November–3 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.8–27.3% 22.3–27.7% 21.6–28.6%
20–27 September 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 23.6% 21.9–25.4% 21.5–25.9% 21.1–26.3% 20.3–27.2%
29 May–6 June 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 23.4% 21.7–25.2% 21.3–25.7% 20.9–26.1% 20.1–27.0%
26 February–17 March 2018 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 23.2% 21.5–24.9% 21.0–25.4% 20.7–25.8% 19.9–26.7%
27 February–6 March 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 23.9% 22.2–25.7% 21.7–26.2% 21.3–26.7% 20.6–27.6%
27 November–4 December 2017 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 19.5% 18.0–21.2% 17.5–21.7% 17.2–22.1% 16.5–22.9%
11 September–5 October 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 21.5% 19.9–23.1% 19.5–23.6% 19.1–24.0% 18.4–24.8%
25 August–3 September 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 20.7% 19.1–22.5% 18.7–23.0% 18.3–23.4% 17.5–24.3%
23–27 June 2017 Dedicated
MR		 16.0% 14.3–18.0% 13.7–18.6% 13.3–19.1% 12.5–20.1%
16–20 March 2017 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 21.4% 19.4–23.5% 18.9–24.1% 18.4–24.6% 17.5–25.7%
16–17 February 2017 iVox
Sudpresse		 21.3% 19.7–23.0% 19.2–23.5% 18.9–23.9% 18.1–24.8%
10–17 January 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 23.6% 21.9–25.5% 21.4–26.0% 21.0–26.4% 20.3–27.3%
28–24 November 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 24.1% 22.1–26.4% 21.5–27.0% 21.0–27.5% 20.1–28.6%
19–25 September 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 24.7% 23.0–26.6% 22.5–27.1% 22.1–27.5% 21.3–28.4%
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 25.1% 23.0–27.3% 22.5–27.9% 22.0–28.5% 21.0–29.6%
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 25.8% 24.1–27.7% 23.6–28.2% 23.2–28.6% 22.4–29.5%
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 26.4% 24.6–28.3% 24.1–28.8% 23.7–29.2% 22.9–30.2%
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 26.7% 25.0–28.5% 24.5–29.0% 24.1–29.5% 23.3–30.4%
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 27.3% 25.4–29.2% 24.9–29.8% 24.4–30.2% 23.6–31.2%
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.7% 22.6–29.6%
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 29.7% 27.5–32.1% 26.8–32.8% 26.3–33.4% 25.3–34.5%
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 29.7% 27.5–32.0% 26.9–32.7% 26.4–33.3% 25.4–34.4%
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 25.8% 24.1–27.7% 23.6–28.3% 23.2–28.7% 22.3–29.6%
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 28.8% 26.6–31.1% 26.0–31.7% 25.5–32.3% 24.5–33.4%
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 27.4% 25.7–29.3% 25.2–29.8% 24.8–30.2% 24.0–31.1%
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 30.1% 28.3–32.0% 27.8–32.5% 27.4–33.0% 26.6–33.9%
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 30.1% 27.8–32.4% 27.2–33.1% 26.7–33.7% 25.6–34.9%
5–9 September 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 31.1% 28.9–33.4% 28.2–34.1% 27.7–34.7% 26.6–35.8%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for PS.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19.5–20.5% 0% 100%  
20.5–21.5% 0.4% 100%  
21.5–22.5% 2% 99.6%  
22.5–23.5% 7% 97%  
23.5–24.5% 13% 91%  
24.5–25.5% 14% 78%  
25.5–26.5% 12% 63%  
26.5–27.5% 12% 51% Median
27.5–28.5% 14% 39%  
28.5–29.5% 13% 25%  
29.5–30.5% 8% 12%  
30.5–31.5% 3% 4% Last Result
31.5–32.5% 0.8% 0.9%  
32.5–33.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
33.5–34.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 30 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 23 21–26 20–28 19–28 18–29
6–14 May 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 25 23–28 23–28 22–29 21–29
25 March–14 April 2019 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 21 20–23 19–24 19–25 18–26
5–11 February 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 22 21–24 20–25 19–25 19–27
19 November–8 December 2018 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 21 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–27
27 November–3 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 21 21–24 20–24 19–25 19–26
20–27 September 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 21 19–23 19–23 18–24 17–25
29 May–6 June 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25
26 February–17 March 2018 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 21 18–22 18–22 18–23 17–23
27 February–6 March 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 21 19–23 19–23 18–24 18–25
27 November–4 December 2017 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 17 16–19 15–20 15–20 15–21
11 September–5 October 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 19 17–21 17–21 17–21 16–22
25 August–3 September 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 18 17–21 16–21 16–21 15–22
23–27 June 2017 Dedicated
MR		 15 12–16 12–16 11–16 9–18
16–20 March 2017 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 19 18–20 17–21 16–21 16–23
16–17 February 2017 iVox
Sudpresse		 18 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–21
10–17 January 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 21 20–24 19–24 18–25 18–26
28–24 November 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 21 19–23 19–24 19–25 17–27
19–25 September 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 23 21–25 20–26 19–27 19–27
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 22 21–25 21–27 21–27 19–27
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 24 22–26 21–27 21–28 21–29
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 24 21–26 21–26 21–27 20–28
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–30
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 24 22–27 22–27 21–28 21–29
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 25 24–27 23–28 22–28 21–29
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 27 25–29 24–30 24–31 22–31
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 27 25–29 24–30 23–31 22–31
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 24 22–25 21–26 21–27 21–28
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 27 24–29 23–30 23–30 22–31
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 25 23–28 23–28 23–28 22–29
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 28 27–31 26–31 26–31 24–32
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 28 26–31 25–31 24–32 23–33
5–9 September 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 28 25–31 24–31 23–31 23–34

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for PS.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 1.0% 100%  
19 2% 99.0%  
20 4% 97%  
21 19% 93%  
22 13% 74%  
23 18% 61% Median
24 11% 43%  
25 16% 32%  
26 6% 15%  
27 4% 9%  
28 4% 5%  
29 1.3% 1.4%  
30 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
31 0% 0%