cdH
Voting Intentions
Last result: 15.2% (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 9.5% | 8.4–10.8% | 8.0–11.2% | 7.8–11.5% | 7.3–12.2% |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9.7% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.3–11.4% | 8.0–11.7% | 7.5–12.3% |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
9.3% | 8.2–10.5% | 7.9–10.9% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.9% |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
10.8% | 9.6–12.1% | 9.3–12.5% | 9.0–12.8% | 8.4–13.5% |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
10.4% | 9.3–11.8% | 9.0–12.1% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.2–13.1% |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11.3% | 10.1–12.7% | 9.7–13.0% | 9.4–13.4% | 8.9–14.1% |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
10.1% | 9.0–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% | 8.4–12.1% | 7.9–12.8% |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11.1% | 10.0–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.8–13.9% |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
7.2% | 6.3–8.4% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.8–9.0% | 5.3–9.6% |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
8.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.8–10.2% | 6.3–10.8% |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8.7% | 7.7–9.9% | 7.4–10.3% | 7.2–10.6% | 6.7–11.2% |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8.8% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.4–10.4% | 7.1–10.7% | 6.6–11.4% |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
9.8% | 8.4–11.4% | 8.0–11.9% | 7.7–12.3% | 7.1–13.2% |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11.9% | 10.5–13.7% | 10.0–14.2% | 9.7–14.6% | 9.0–15.5% |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
10.1% | 9.0–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% | 8.4–12.1% | 7.8–12.8% |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
11.2% | 10.0–12.7% | 9.7–13.0% | 9.4–13.4% | 8.8–14.1% |
| 28–24 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
10.0% | 8.7–11.7% | 8.3–12.1% | 7.9–12.6% | 7.3–13.4% |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
9.8% | 8.6–11.1% | 8.3–11.5% | 8.1–11.8% | 7.5–12.5% |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11.7% | 10.3–13.5% | 9.9–13.9% | 9.5–14.4% | 8.9–15.2% |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
12.0% | 10.7–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.1% | 9.5–14.8% |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
12.8% | 11.5–14.3% | 11.2–14.7% | 10.9–15.1% | 10.3–15.8% |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
11.1% | 10.0–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.8–13.9% |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
13.5% | 12.1–15.1% | 11.8–15.5% | 11.4–15.9% | 10.8–16.7% |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
13.3% | 12.0–14.7% | 11.6–15.2% | 11.3–15.5% | 10.7–16.2% |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
13.5% | 11.9–15.4% | 11.5–15.9% | 11.1–16.4% | 10.4–17.3% |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
12.8% | 11.3–14.6% | 10.9–15.1% | 10.5–15.5% | 9.8–16.4% |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
13.1% | 11.8–14.6% | 11.4–15.1% | 11.1–15.4% | 10.5–16.2% |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
14.3% | 12.7–16.2% | 12.3–16.7% | 11.9–17.1% | 11.1–18.1% |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
13.9% | 12.6–15.4% | 12.3–15.8% | 11.9–16.2% | 11.3–16.9% |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
12.6% | 11.4–14.0% | 11.1–14.4% | 10.8–14.8% | 10.2–15.5% |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
13.4% | 11.9–15.3% | 11.4–15.8% | 11.0–16.3% | 10.3–17.2% |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
12.7% | 11.2–14.5% | 10.8–15.0% | 10.4–15.5% | 9.7–16.3% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for cdH.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 13% | 98.7% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 37% | 86% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 34% | 49% | Median |
| 10.5–11.5% | 13% | 15% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 13 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
6 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
10 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
8 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
10 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 | 6–12 |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 6–12 |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
7 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 6–13 |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
7 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10 | 9–11 | 7–12 | 6–12 | 6–12 |
| 28–24 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 5–11 | 5–12 |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
9 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
10 | 9–12 | 7–12 | 6–13 | 6–13 |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 7–13 |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 6–13 |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 6–14 |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–15 |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
12 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 9–15 |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–14 |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
12 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 6–13 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for cdH.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 15% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 54% | 85% | Median |
| 7 | 13% | 31% | |
| 8 | 7% | 18% | |
| 9 | 7% | 11% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |