PTB

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 5.8% (General Election of 25 May 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 12.0% 8.5–15.8% 8.1–16.4% 7.8–16.8% 7.3–17.6%
6–14 May 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
25 March–14 April 2019 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 14.8% 13.5–16.4% 13.1–16.8% 12.8–17.2% 12.1–17.9%
5–11 February 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 10.7% 9.5–12.0% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.7% 8.4–13.4%
19 November–8 December 2018 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.2% 11.4–17.0%
27 November–3 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 13.1% 11.8–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.3% 10.5–16.0%
20–27 September 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.6–16.1%
29 May–6 June 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
26 February–17 March 2018 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 10.6% 9.5–12.0% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.7% 8.4–13.4%
27 February–6 March 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 17.3% 15.8–18.9% 15.4–19.4% 15.1–19.8% 14.4–20.6%
27 November–4 December 2017 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 18.9% 17.4–20.6% 17.0–21.1% 16.6–21.5% 15.9–22.3%
11 September–5 October 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 14.8% 13.5–16.2% 13.1–16.7% 12.8–17.0% 12.2–17.8%
25 August–3 September 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 17.5% 16.0–19.2% 15.6–19.6% 15.2–20.0% 14.5–20.9%
23–27 June 2017 Dedicated
MR		 25.0% 22.8–27.3% 22.2–27.9% 21.7–28.5% 20.7–29.6%
16–20 March 2017 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 20.0% 18.2–22.1% 17.6–22.7% 17.2–23.2% 16.3–24.2%
16–17 February 2017 iVox
Sudpresse		 17.4% 15.9–19.0% 15.5–19.5% 15.2–19.9% 14.5–20.7%
10–17 January 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 16.3% 14.9–18.0% 14.5–18.4% 14.1–18.8% 13.5–19.6%
28–24 November 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 16.8% 15.1–18.8% 14.6–19.4% 14.2–19.9% 13.4–20.9%
19–25 September 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 16.3% 14.8–17.9% 14.4–18.3% 14.1–18.7% 13.4–19.5%
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 13.9% 12.3–15.8% 11.9–16.3% 11.5–16.7% 10.8–17.6%
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 13.5% 12.2–14.9% 11.8–15.3% 11.5–15.7% 10.9–16.4%
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 10.4% 9.3–11.8% 8.9–12.2% 8.7–12.5% 8.1–13.2%
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 8.8% 7.8–10.0% 7.5–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.8–11.3%
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 10.3% 9.1–11.7% 8.8–12.1% 8.5–12.5% 8.0–13.2%
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 9.6% 8.3–11.3% 7.9–11.8% 7.6–12.2% 7.0–13.0%
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 9.0% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0% 7.0–11.4% 6.5–12.1%
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 8.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.1–10.1% 6.9–10.5% 6.4–11.1%
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 8.3% 7.0–9.8% 6.7–10.2% 6.4–10.6% 5.9–11.4%
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 7.3% 6.4–8.4% 6.1–8.8% 5.9–9.0% 5.4–9.6%
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.5–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.0%
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 7.6% 6.4–9.1% 6.1–9.6% 5.8–9.9% 5.3–10.7%
5–9 September 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8.1% 6.9–9.6% 6.6–10.1% 6.3–10.5% 5.8–11.2%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for PTB.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5.5–6.5% 0% 100% Last Result
6.5–7.5% 1.2% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 10% 98.8%  
8.5–9.5% 21% 89%  
9.5–10.5% 14% 69%  
10.5–11.5% 4% 54%  
11.5–12.5% 1.1% 50% Median
12.5–13.5% 5% 49%  
13.5–14.5% 14% 44%  
14.5–15.5% 17% 31%  
15.5–16.5% 10% 14%  
16.5–17.5% 3% 4%  
17.5–18.5% 0.5% 0.6%  
18.5–19.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
19.5–20.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 2 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 9 7–13 6–13 6–15 4–15
6–14 May 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 4–9
25 March–14 April 2019 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 11 10–13 10–15 9–15 9–15
5–11 February 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 7–11
19 November–8 December 2018 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 10 9–11 9–12 9–13 8–15
27 November–3 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 10 9–11 9–12 8–12 8–13
20–27 September 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 10 9–11 9–12 8–13 8–14
29 May–6 June 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 10 9–11 9–12 8–12 8–14
26 February–17 March 2018 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 7–10
27 February–6 March 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 15 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
27 November–4 December 2017 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 17 15–18 15–19 14–20 13–20
11 September–5 October 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–15
25 August–3 September 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 15 13–17 13–17 13–18 11–18
23–27 June 2017 Dedicated
MR		 22 20–24 19–24 19–24 17–26
16–20 March 2017 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 18 16–19 16–20 15–20 14–21
16–17 February 2017 iVox
Sudpresse		 15 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–17
10–17 January 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 15 12–16 12–16 11–16 10–17
28–24 November 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 15 12–17 12–17 10–17 10–18
19–25 September 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 14 12–16 12–16 11–16 10–17
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 12 10–13 9–13 9–14 9–15
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 11 10–13 9–13 9–14 8–15
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 4–9
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 4–10
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 7 6–8 5–8 4–9 4–9
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 7 6–8 5–8 4–8 4–9
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 7 5–8 4–8 4–8 4–9
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 6 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM		 6 4–7 4–7 4–8 4–8
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated
La Libre Belgique–RTBf		 6 4–7 4–7 4–8 3–8
5–9 September 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 6 4–7 4–8 4–8 3–8

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for PTB.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 1.2% 100%  
5 1.3% 98.8%  
6 7% 98%  
7 32% 90%  
8 7% 58%  
9 3% 51% Median
10 8% 48%  
11 20% 40%  
12 9% 20%  
13 7% 12%  
14 2% 5%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%