Opinion Poll by Dedicated for La Libre Belgique–RTBf, 27 November–1 December 2014
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 30.1% | 27.8–32.4% | 27.2–33.1% | 26.7–33.7% | 25.6–34.9% |
| MR | 26.7% | 24.0% | 21.9–26.2% | 21.4–26.8% | 20.9–27.4% | 19.9–28.5% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 13.4% | 11.9–15.3% | 11.4–15.8% | 11.0–16.3% | 10.3–17.2% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.9–9.6% | 6.5–10.1% | 6.2–10.4% | 5.7–11.2% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.4–9.1% | 6.1–9.6% | 5.8–9.9% | 5.3–10.7% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.0–6.1% | 3.7–6.5% | 3.5–6.8% | 3.1–7.5% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.7–4.3% | 1.5–4.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 28 | 26–31 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 |
| MR | 25 | 22 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–27 |
| cdH | 13 | 12 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 3–7 | 2–9 |
| PTB | 2 | 6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 25 | 6% | 97% | |
| 26 | 8% | 90% | |
| 27 | 17% | 82% | |
| 28 | 29% | 66% | Median |
| 29 | 15% | 36% | |
| 30 | 10% | 22% | Last Result |
| 31 | 8% | 11% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 20 | 11% | 95% | |
| 21 | 23% | 85% | |
| 22 | 27% | 62% | Median |
| 23 | 13% | 35% | |
| 24 | 14% | 22% | |
| 25 | 6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 7% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 7% | 93% | |
| 11 | 33% | 86% | |
| 12 | 38% | 53% | Median |
| 13 | 10% | 16% | Last Result |
| 14 | 4% | 6% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 97% | Last Result |
| 5 | 13% | 96% | |
| 6 | 70% | 83% | Median |
| 7 | 11% | 13% | |
| 8 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 25% | 99.2% | |
| 5 | 13% | 74% | |
| 6 | 28% | 61% | Median |
| 7 | 28% | 33% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | |
| 1 | 26% | 79% | Last Result |
| 2 | 32% | 53% | Median |
| 3 | 11% | 21% | |
| 4 | 9% | 10% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 56 | 100% | 54–59 | 53–59 | 53–60 | 51–61 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 50 | 100% | 48–53 | 47–53 | 47–54 | 45–55 |
| PS – cdH – Ecolo | 47 | 45 | 100% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 42–50 | 40–51 |
| PS – cdH – PTB | 45 | 45 | 100% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 42–49 | 40–50 |
| MR – cdH – Ecolo | 42 | 39 | 86% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 40 | 88% | 37–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| PS – Ecolo – PTB | 36 | 40 | 84% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–43 | 34–44 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 34 | 3% | 31–37 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 33 | 3% | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 34 | 3% | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 28–39 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 28 | 0% | 26–30 | 25–31 | 24–31 | 23–33 |
| Ecolo – PTB | 6 | 12 | 0% | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 7–15 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 53 | 5% | 98% | |
| 54 | 12% | 93% | |
| 55 | 22% | 81% | |
| 56 | 21% | 59% | Median |
| 57 | 17% | 39% | |
| 58 | 12% | 22% | |
| 59 | 6% | 10% | Last Result |
| 60 | 3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 5% | 98% | |
| 48 | 11% | 93% | |
| 49 | 21% | 82% | |
| 50 | 21% | 61% | Median |
| 51 | 17% | 40% | |
| 52 | 11% | 23% | |
| 53 | 7% | 12% | |
| 54 | 3% | 5% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 7% | 94% | |
| 44 | 12% | 87% | |
| 45 | 26% | 74% | |
| 46 | 20% | 49% | Median |
| 47 | 15% | 29% | Last Result |
| 48 | 7% | 14% | |
| 49 | 4% | 7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 5% | 98% | |
| 43 | 12% | 93% | |
| 44 | 14% | 82% | |
| 45 | 20% | 68% | Last Result |
| 46 | 21% | 48% | Median |
| 47 | 14% | 27% | |
| 48 | 7% | 13% | |
| 49 | 4% | 6% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 4% | 98% | |
| 37 | 8% | 94% | |
| 38 | 16% | 86% | Majority |
| 39 | 24% | 70% | |
| 40 | 15% | 46% | Median |
| 41 | 12% | 31% | |
| 42 | 13% | 19% | Last Result |
| 43 | 4% | 7% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 8% | 95% | |
| 38 | 11% | 88% | Majority |
| 39 | 26% | 76% | |
| 40 | 21% | 50% | Median |
| 41 | 15% | 30% | |
| 42 | 7% | 15% | |
| 43 | 5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 37 | 10% | 95% | |
| 38 | 13% | 84% | Majority |
| 39 | 15% | 71% | |
| 40 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 41 | 16% | 35% | |
| 42 | 11% | 20% | |
| 43 | 7% | 9% | |
| 44 | 2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 31 | 6% | 96% | |
| 32 | 9% | 89% | |
| 33 | 18% | 80% | |
| 34 | 25% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 35 | 16% | 37% | |
| 36 | 11% | 21% | |
| 37 | 7% | 10% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 31 | 8% | 97% | |
| 32 | 16% | 88% | |
| 33 | 28% | 72% | |
| 34 | 15% | 45% | Median |
| 35 | 9% | 30% | |
| 36 | 14% | 21% | |
| 37 | 5% | 8% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | Last Result, Majority |
| 39 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98% | |
| 31 | 9% | 96% | |
| 32 | 15% | 86% | Last Result |
| 33 | 14% | 72% | |
| 34 | 21% | 58% | Median |
| 35 | 17% | 37% | |
| 36 | 10% | 20% | |
| 37 | 7% | 10% | |
| 38 | 3% | 3% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 4% | 97% | |
| 26 | 10% | 93% | |
| 27 | 25% | 82% | |
| 28 | 21% | 58% | Median |
| 29 | 15% | 37% | Last Result |
| 30 | 14% | 22% | |
| 31 | 5% | 7% | |
| 32 | 2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 10 | 23% | 95% | |
| 11 | 16% | 72% | |
| 12 | 24% | 56% | Median |
| 13 | 23% | 32% | |
| 14 | 8% | 9% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Dedicated
- Commissioner(s): La Libre Belgique–RTBf
- Fieldwork period: 27 November–1 December 2014
Calculations
- Sample size: 655
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.69%