Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM, 5–11 January 2015

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30.9% 30.1% 28.3–32.0% 27.8–32.5% 27.4–33.0% 26.6–33.9%
MR 26.7% 25.3% 23.6–27.0% 23.1–27.5% 22.7–28.0% 21.9–28.9%
cdH 15.2% 12.6% 11.4–14.0% 11.1–14.4% 10.8–14.8% 10.2–15.5%
Ecolo 8.6% 7.8% 6.8–8.9% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.9–10.2%
PTB 5.8% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.5–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.0%
Parti Populaire 4.9% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.6–4.8% 2.3–5.2%
DéFI 2.5% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30 28 27–31 26–31 26–31 24–32
MR 25 24 22–25 22–25 21–26 20–27
cdH 13 11 10–12 9–12 9–12 8–14
Ecolo 4 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 2–7
PTB 2 6 4–7 4–7 4–8 4–8
Parti Populaire 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
DéFI 0 0 0 0 0 0

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 1.4% 99.3%  
26 6% 98%  
27 12% 92%  
28 35% 80% Median
29 22% 45%  
30 13% 23% Last Result
31 9% 10%  
32 1.3% 2%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.2% 100%  
21 3% 98.7%  
22 19% 95%  
23 24% 77%  
24 28% 53% Median
25 20% 25% Last Result
26 3% 5%  
27 1.3% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.2% 99.9%  
8 0.6% 99.7%  
9 8% 99.1%  
10 8% 91%  
11 43% 83% Median
12 38% 40%  
13 1.2% 2% Last Result
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 0.4% 99.7%  
3 0.7% 99.3%  
4 0.8% 98.6% Last Result
5 14% 98%  
6 80% 84% Median
7 4% 5%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.1% 100%  
4 15% 99.9%  
5 24% 85%  
6 29% 61% Median
7 29% 32%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Median
1 11% 13% Last Result
2 2% 2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS – MR – Ecolo 59 58 100% 56–60 56–61 55–61 55–62
PS – MR 55 52 100% 50–54 50–55 49–55 49–56
PS – cdH – PTB 45 45 100% 44–47 43–48 43–48 42–49
PS – cdH – Ecolo 47 46 100% 44–47 43–47 42–48 41–49
MR – cdH – Ecolo 42 41 97% 38–42 38–43 37–43 36–45
PS – Ecolo – PTB 36 40 97% 38–42 38–43 37–43 36–44
PS – cdH 43 40 94% 38–41 37–42 37–42 35–43
MR – cdH 38 35 2% 33–36 32–37 32–37 31–39
PS – PTB 32 34 2% 33–36 32–37 32–37 30–38
PS – Ecolo 34 34 1.1% 32–36 32–37 31–37 30–38
MR – Ecolo 29 30 0% 28–31 27–31 27–32 26–33
Ecolo – PTB 6 12 0% 10–13 10–13 9–14 8–14

PS – MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.3% 100%  
55 3% 99.7%  
56 13% 97%  
57 30% 84%  
58 21% 54% Median
59 18% 33% Last Result
60 10% 15%  
61 4% 5%  
62 0.7% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

PS – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 2% 99.8%  
50 11% 97%  
51 28% 87%  
52 23% 59% Median
53 18% 36%  
54 11% 18%  
55 5% 6% Last Result
56 1.3% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

PS – cdH – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 1.4% 99.8%  
43 5% 98%  
44 17% 93%  
45 29% 76% Last Result, Median
46 27% 48%  
47 14% 21%  
48 5% 7%  
49 1.4% 2%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

PS – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.2%  
43 4% 97%  
44 11% 93%  
45 29% 82% Median
46 33% 53%  
47 16% 20% Last Result
48 3% 4%  
49 0.8% 1.1%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

MR – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.9%  
37 3% 99.5%  
38 8% 97% Majority
39 16% 89%  
40 16% 73%  
41 25% 57% Median
42 25% 32% Last Result
43 5% 7%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.6% 0.6%  
46 0% 0%  

PS – Ecolo – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 1.0% 99.9% Last Result
37 2% 98.9%  
38 9% 97% Majority
39 25% 88%  
40 26% 63% Median
41 16% 37%  
42 13% 21%  
43 6% 8%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

PS – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.5% 100%  
36 1.4% 99.4%  
37 4% 98%  
38 10% 94% Majority
39 25% 84% Median
40 35% 59%  
41 18% 23%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.0% 1.4% Last Result
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 2% 99.7%  
32 6% 98%  
33 17% 92%  
34 14% 74%  
35 25% 60% Median
36 26% 35%  
37 7% 9%  
38 1.4% 2% Last Result, Majority
39 0.8% 0.9%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

PS – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.2%  
32 7% 98% Last Result
33 24% 90%  
34 26% 66% Median
35 18% 40%  
36 13% 23%  
37 7% 9%  
38 2% 2% Majority
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

PS – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.7%  
31 2% 99.0%  
32 8% 97%  
33 14% 90%  
34 33% 75% Last Result, Median
35 21% 42%  
36 11% 20%  
37 8% 9%  
38 0.9% 1.1% Majority
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 2% 99.7%  
27 7% 98%  
28 18% 92%  
29 24% 74% Last Result
30 30% 50% Median
31 16% 20%  
32 4% 5%  
33 1.1% 1.3%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Ecolo – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100% Last Result
7 0.3% 99.9%  
8 0.5% 99.6%  
9 3% 99.1%  
10 14% 96%  
11 24% 82%  
12 32% 58% Median
13 21% 25%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations