Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM, 23–28 January 2015

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30.9% 27.4% 25.7–29.3% 25.2–29.8% 24.8–30.2% 24.0–31.1%
MR 26.7% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.6%
cdH 15.2% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.3–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
Ecolo 8.6% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
PTB 5.8% 7.3% 6.4–8.4% 6.1–8.8% 5.9–9.0% 5.4–9.6%
Parti Populaire 4.9% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
DéFI 2.5% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.3–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30 25 23–28 23–28 23–28 22–29
MR 25 24 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
cdH 13 12 11–13 11–14 11–15 10–15
Ecolo 4 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
PTB 2 6 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Parti Populaire 1 1 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
DéFI 0 0 0 0 0 0

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 2% 99.5%  
23 8% 98%  
24 13% 89%  
25 30% 76% Median
26 15% 47%  
27 18% 32%  
28 12% 14%  
29 1.4% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
31 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 2% 100%  
22 8% 98%  
23 9% 90%  
24 34% 81% Median
25 30% 47% Last Result
26 10% 18%  
27 6% 8%  
28 1.1% 1.3%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.8%  
11 17% 98%  
12 57% 81% Median
13 16% 25% Last Result
14 5% 8%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
5 4% 99.7%  
6 80% 96% Median
7 14% 16%  
8 1.4% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.5% 100%  
4 34% 99.5%  
5 14% 66%  
6 33% 51% Median
7 18% 18%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 32% 77% Last Result, Median
2 35% 45%  
3 7% 10%  
4 3% 4%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS – MR – Ecolo 59 56 100% 54–58 54–59 53–59 52–60
PS – MR 55 50 100% 48–52 48–52 47–53 46–54
PS – cdH – Ecolo 47 44 100% 42–46 41–47 40–47 40–48
PS – cdH – PTB 45 43 100% 41–45 40–46 40–46 39–47
MR – cdH – Ecolo 42 42 100% 41–45 40–46 39–46 39–47
PS – cdH 43 38 55% 36–40 35–40 34–41 33–42
PS – Ecolo – PTB 36 37 37% 35–39 34–40 34–40 33–41
MR – cdH 38 36 23% 35–39 34–39 33–40 33–41
PS – Ecolo 34 32 0% 29–34 29–34 29–35 28–35
PS – PTB 32 31 0% 29–33 28–34 27–34 27–35
MR – Ecolo 29 30 0% 29–32 28–33 28–33 27–34
Ecolo – PTB 6 12 0% 10–13 10–13 10–14 9–14

PS – MR – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.8% 99.9%  
53 3% 99.1%  
54 8% 96%  
55 25% 88% Median
56 23% 64%  
57 22% 41%  
58 13% 19%  
59 5% 6% Last Result
60 0.7% 0.8%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

PS – MR

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 1.1% 99.9%  
47 4% 98.8%  
48 9% 95%  
49 25% 86% Median
50 24% 61%  
51 20% 37%  
52 12% 17%  
53 4% 5%  
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

PS – cdH – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.5% 100%  
40 2% 99.5%  
41 6% 97%  
42 13% 91%  
43 20% 79% Median
44 21% 59%  
45 23% 38%  
46 9% 14%  
47 4% 5% Last Result
48 1.1% 1.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

PS – cdH – PTB

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100% Majority
39 1.1% 99.7%  
40 4% 98.6%  
41 9% 95%  
42 17% 86%  
43 36% 69% Median
44 16% 33%  
45 10% 17% Last Result
46 6% 7%  
47 1.0% 1.1%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

MR – cdH – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100% Majority
39 2% 99.7%  
40 5% 97%  
41 9% 93%  
42 34% 83% Last Result, Median
43 23% 49%  
44 13% 27%  
45 8% 14%  
46 4% 6%  
47 1.1% 1.4%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

PS – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.6% 100%  
34 3% 99.4%  
35 6% 97%  
36 12% 91%  
37 24% 79% Median
38 21% 55% Majority
39 21% 34%  
40 9% 13%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.9% 1.0%  
43 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

PS – Ecolo – PTB

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 2% 99.6%  
34 5% 98%  
35 9% 93%  
36 15% 84% Last Result
37 32% 69% Median
38 20% 37% Majority
39 12% 18%  
40 5% 6%  
41 1.1% 1.3%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

MR – cdH

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 2% 99.7%  
34 5% 97%  
35 11% 92%  
36 34% 82% Median
37 24% 47%  
38 11% 23% Last Result, Majority
39 7% 12%  
40 4% 5%  
41 1.0% 1.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

PS – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 1.4% 99.6%  
29 8% 98%  
30 13% 90%  
31 25% 77% Median
32 18% 52%  
33 20% 35%  
34 11% 15% Last Result
35 3% 3%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0% Majority

PS – PTB

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 6% 97%  
29 9% 91%  
30 16% 82%  
31 32% 66% Median
32 20% 34% Last Result
33 9% 15%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.9% 1.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

MR – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 2% 99.9%  
28 6% 98%  
29 9% 92% Last Result
30 33% 83% Median
31 27% 50%  
32 13% 22%  
33 8% 10%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Ecolo – PTB

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 26% 98%  
11 20% 72%  
12 32% 52% Median
13 17% 21%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations