Opinion Poll by Dedicated for La Libre Belgique–RTBf, 5–9 March 2015
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 28.8% | 26.6–31.1% | 26.0–31.7% | 25.5–32.3% | 24.5–33.4% |
| MR | 26.7% | 25.2% | 23.2–27.5% | 22.6–28.1% | 22.1–28.6% | 21.1–29.7% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 14.3% | 12.7–16.2% | 12.3–16.7% | 11.9–17.1% | 11.1–18.1% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.0–9.8% | 6.7–10.2% | 6.4–10.6% | 5.9–11.4% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.0–9.8% | 6.7–10.2% | 6.4–10.6% | 5.9–11.4% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.6–4.9% | 2.4–5.2% | 2.1–5.8% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.5% | 1.6–5.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 27 | 24–29 | 23–30 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
| MR | 25 | 23 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 20–28 |
| cdH | 13 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 9–15 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 2–8 |
| PTB | 2 | 7 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 24 | 7% | 95% | |
| 25 | 16% | 88% | |
| 26 | 18% | 72% | |
| 27 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 28 | 24% | 35% | |
| 29 | 6% | 11% | |
| 30 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 9% | 97% | |
| 22 | 24% | 89% | |
| 23 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 24 | 21% | 46% | |
| 25 | 16% | 25% | Last Result |
| 26 | 5% | 9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 11 | 15% | 97% | |
| 12 | 54% | 83% | Median |
| 13 | 11% | 28% | Last Result |
| 14 | 9% | 17% | |
| 15 | 8% | 8% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 98% | Last Result |
| 5 | 9% | 98% | |
| 6 | 71% | 88% | Median |
| 7 | 15% | 17% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 12% | 91% | |
| 6 | 23% | 79% | |
| 7 | 42% | 56% | Median |
| 8 | 13% | 14% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 12% | 17% | Last Result |
| 2 | 4% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 56 | 100% | 54–58 | 53–59 | 53–59 | 52–60 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 50 | 100% | 48–52 | 47–53 | 47–53 | 46–55 |
| PS – cdH – PTB | 45 | 45 | 100% | 43–48 | 42–48 | 42–49 | 41–50 |
| PS – cdH – Ecolo | 47 | 45 | 100% | 43–47 | 42–48 | 41–48 | 40–50 |
| MR – cdH – Ecolo | 42 | 42 | 98.8% | 39–44 | 39–45 | 38–45 | 37–47 |
| PS – Ecolo – PTB | 36 | 39 | 81% | 37–41 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 34–44 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 39 | 79% | 36–41 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 34–44 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 36 | 14% | 33–38 | 33–39 | 32–39 | 31–41 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 33 | 0.9% | 31–35 | 30–36 | 29–37 | 28–38 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 33 | 0.2% | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 29 | 0% | 27–32 | 27–32 | 26–33 | 25–34 |
| Ecolo – PTB | 6 | 13 | 0% | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 8–16 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 4% | 98% | |
| 54 | 10% | 94% | |
| 55 | 18% | 84% | |
| 56 | 26% | 66% | Median |
| 57 | 25% | 39% | |
| 58 | 8% | 14% | |
| 59 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 60 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 5% | 98% | |
| 48 | 11% | 93% | |
| 49 | 20% | 83% | |
| 50 | 24% | 63% | Median |
| 51 | 23% | 39% | |
| 52 | 9% | 15% | |
| 53 | 4% | 6% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 43 | 9% | 94% | |
| 44 | 14% | 85% | |
| 45 | 21% | 71% | Last Result |
| 46 | 25% | 50% | Median |
| 47 | 15% | 25% | |
| 48 | 8% | 10% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 42 | 6% | 96% | |
| 43 | 9% | 90% | |
| 44 | 16% | 81% | |
| 45 | 25% | 65% | Median |
| 46 | 19% | 39% | |
| 47 | 13% | 20% | Last Result |
| 48 | 4% | 7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98.8% | Majority |
| 39 | 8% | 96% | |
| 40 | 14% | 88% | |
| 41 | 17% | 75% | Median |
| 42 | 29% | 58% | Last Result |
| 43 | 14% | 29% | |
| 44 | 8% | 15% | |
| 45 | 5% | 8% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 36 | 6% | 97% | Last Result |
| 37 | 10% | 91% | |
| 38 | 14% | 81% | Majority |
| 39 | 29% | 67% | |
| 40 | 17% | 38% | Median |
| 41 | 12% | 21% | |
| 42 | 7% | 10% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 6% | 96% | |
| 37 | 11% | 90% | |
| 38 | 15% | 79% | Majority |
| 39 | 25% | 65% | Median |
| 40 | 22% | 40% | |
| 41 | 10% | 17% | |
| 42 | 5% | 7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 33 | 9% | 96% | |
| 34 | 13% | 88% | |
| 35 | 17% | 74% | Median |
| 36 | 29% | 58% | |
| 37 | 14% | 28% | |
| 38 | 7% | 14% | Last Result, Majority |
| 39 | 5% | 7% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 30 | 6% | 97% | |
| 31 | 10% | 91% | |
| 32 | 16% | 81% | Last Result |
| 33 | 27% | 65% | |
| 34 | 17% | 38% | Median |
| 35 | 12% | 21% | |
| 36 | 6% | 9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 7% | 94% | |
| 31 | 12% | 88% | |
| 32 | 21% | 75% | |
| 33 | 20% | 54% | Median |
| 34 | 19% | 34% | Last Result |
| 35 | 9% | 15% | |
| 36 | 4% | 5% | |
| 37 | 2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 27 | 10% | 96% | |
| 28 | 18% | 87% | |
| 29 | 23% | 69% | Last Result, Median |
| 30 | 21% | 46% | |
| 31 | 14% | 25% | |
| 32 | 6% | 11% | |
| 33 | 4% | 5% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 10 | 7% | 98% | |
| 11 | 14% | 91% | |
| 12 | 23% | 77% | |
| 13 | 32% | 54% | Median |
| 14 | 19% | 22% | |
| 15 | 2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Dedicated
- Commissioner(s): La Libre Belgique–RTBf
- Fieldwork period: 5–9 March 2015
Calculations
- Sample size: 678
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.81%