Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM, 20–24 April 2015

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
MR 26.7% 26.1% 24.3–27.9% 23.8–28.5% 23.4–28.9% 22.5–29.9%
PS 30.9% 25.8% 24.1–27.7% 23.6–28.3% 23.2–28.7% 22.3–29.6%
cdH 15.2% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.1% 11.1–15.4% 10.5–16.2%
Ecolo 8.6% 9.1% 8.0–10.5% 7.7–10.8% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.8%
PTB 5.8% 8.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.1–10.1% 6.9–10.5% 6.4–11.1%
Parti Populaire 4.9% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.6% 3.5–7.2%
DéFI 2.5% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.4% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
MR 25 25 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
PS 30 24 22–25 21–26 21–27 21–28
cdH 13 12 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–15
Ecolo 4 6 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–10
PTB 2 7 6–8 5–8 4–8 4–9
Parti Populaire 1 2 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–5
DéFI 0 0 0 0 0 0

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 6% 98%  
23 16% 92%  
24 19% 76%  
25 19% 56% Last Result, Median
26 30% 37%  
27 6% 7%  
28 1.5% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 9% 99.7%  
22 13% 91%  
23 24% 78%  
24 25% 54% Median
25 19% 29%  
26 5% 10%  
27 3% 5%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0% Last Result

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.8% 99.8%  
10 10% 99.1%  
11 31% 89%  
12 51% 58% Median
13 6% 8% Last Result
14 0.8% 1.5%  
15 0.6% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.9% 100%  
6 64% 99.1% Median
7 25% 35%  
8 8% 10%  
9 1.2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 4% 100%  
5 3% 96%  
6 24% 93%  
7 56% 69% Median
8 12% 14%  
9 1.3% 1.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 22% 88% Last Result
2 40% 66% Median
3 17% 26%  
4 9% 9%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
MR – PS – Ecolo 59 55 100% 53–57 53–57 52–58 51–59
MR – PS 55 48 100% 47–50 46–51 46–51 44–52
MR – cdH – Ecolo 42 43 99.9% 41–45 40–45 39–46 38–47
PS – cdH – Ecolo 47 42 99.9% 40–44 39–45 39–45 38–46
PS – cdH – PTB 45 42 99.8% 40–44 39–45 39–45 38–46
PS – Ecolo – PTB 36 37 34% 35–39 34–40 34–40 33–42
MR – cdH 38 36 25% 34–38 33–39 33–39 32–40
PS – cdH 43 35 8% 33–37 33–38 32–39 31–40
MR – Ecolo 29 31 0% 29–33 28–33 28–34 27–35
PS – Ecolo 34 30 0% 28–32 28–33 27–34 27–35
PS – PTB 32 30 0% 28–32 28–33 27–34 27–35
Ecolo – PTB 6 13 0% 12–14 12–15 11–15 10–16

MR – PS – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.9% 99.9%  
52 4% 99.0%  
53 10% 95%  
54 25% 85%  
55 32% 60% Median
56 17% 27%  
57 8% 11%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

MR – PS

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.4%  
46 6% 98%  
47 19% 91%  
48 24% 73%  
49 31% 48% Median
50 11% 18%  
51 5% 6%  
52 1.0% 1.3%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

MR – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9% Majority
39 2% 99.4%  
40 6% 97%  
41 14% 91%  
42 23% 77% Last Result
43 21% 54% Median
44 20% 33%  
45 11% 13%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

PS – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 2% 99.9% Majority
39 8% 98%  
40 15% 91%  
41 25% 76%  
42 22% 51% Median
43 13% 29%  
44 9% 16%  
45 5% 6%  
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
48 0% 0%  

PS – cdH – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 1.0% 99.8% Majority
39 5% 98.8%  
40 12% 94%  
41 20% 81%  
42 24% 61%  
43 20% 36% Median
44 10% 17%  
45 4% 7% Last Result
46 2% 2%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

PS – Ecolo – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 1.1% 99.8%  
34 5% 98.6%  
35 13% 94%  
36 25% 80% Last Result
37 21% 55% Median
38 17% 34% Majority
39 11% 17%  
40 4% 6%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.0% 99.8%  
33 4% 98.8%  
34 9% 95%  
35 20% 86%  
36 20% 66%  
37 21% 46% Median
38 19% 25% Last Result, Majority
39 4% 6%  
40 0.9% 1.2%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

PS – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.7% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.3%  
33 13% 96%  
34 16% 83%  
35 24% 68%  
36 23% 43% Median
37 13% 21%  
38 5% 8% Majority
39 3% 3%  
40 0.7% 0.8%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 1.4% 100%  
28 4% 98.6%  
29 9% 95% Last Result
30 22% 86%  
31 18% 63% Median
32 25% 45%  
33 15% 20%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.7% 0.9%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

PS – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 5% 99.8%  
28 9% 95%  
29 25% 86%  
30 23% 61% Median
31 19% 39%  
32 12% 20%  
33 5% 8%  
34 2% 3% Last Result
35 0.6% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

PS – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.5%  
28 10% 97%  
29 15% 87%  
30 25% 72%  
31 22% 47% Median
32 15% 25% Last Result
33 7% 10%  
34 2% 3%  
35 1.0% 1.2%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Ecolo – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 1.5% 100%  
11 3% 98%  
12 18% 95%  
13 39% 77% Median
14 29% 38%  
15 7% 9%  
16 1.5% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations