Opinion Poll by Dedicated for La Libre Belgique–RTBf, 12–18 May 2015
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 29.7% | 27.5–32.0% | 26.9–32.7% | 26.4–33.3% | 25.4–34.4% |
| MR | 26.7% | 25.4% | 23.4–27.7% | 22.8–28.3% | 22.3–28.9% | 21.4–29.9% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 12.8% | 11.3–14.6% | 10.9–15.1% | 10.5–15.5% | 9.8–16.4% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.3–11.0% | 7.0–11.4% | 6.5–12.1% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 9.0% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.3–11.0% | 7.0–11.4% | 6.5–12.1% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.7–5.8% | 3.4–6.1% | 3.2–6.4% | 2.9–7.0% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.5% | 1.6–5.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 27 | 25–29 | 24–30 | 23–31 | 22–31 |
| MR | 25 | 23 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–26 | 19–27 |
| cdH | 13 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 6–14 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| PTB | 2 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 4–9 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 24 | 6% | 96% | |
| 25 | 17% | 91% | |
| 26 | 12% | 74% | |
| 27 | 18% | 61% | Median |
| 28 | 24% | 43% | |
| 29 | 11% | 20% | |
| 30 | 5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 31 | 3% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 21 | 15% | 96% | |
| 22 | 26% | 81% | |
| 23 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 24 | 18% | 37% | |
| 25 | 13% | 19% | Last Result |
| 26 | 4% | 6% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 2% | 98% | |
| 9 | 12% | 97% | |
| 10 | 17% | 85% | |
| 11 | 34% | 68% | Median |
| 12 | 30% | 34% | |
| 13 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 5 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 66% | 95% | Median |
| 7 | 23% | 29% | |
| 8 | 5% | 6% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 96% | |
| 6 | 18% | 91% | |
| 7 | 49% | 73% | Median |
| 8 | 20% | 24% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41% | 100% | |
| 1 | 28% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 23% | 31% | |
| 3 | 6% | 9% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 56 | 100% | 54–58 | 54–59 | 53–60 | 52–62 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 50 | 100% | 48–52 | 47–53 | 47–54 | 45–55 |
| PS – cdH – PTB | 45 | 45 | 100% | 42–47 | 42–48 | 41–48 | 40–49 |
| PS – cdH – Ecolo | 47 | 44 | 100% | 42–46 | 41–47 | 40–47 | 39–49 |
| MR – cdH – Ecolo | 42 | 40 | 92% | 38–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 |
| PS – Ecolo – PTB | 36 | 40 | 91% | 38–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 38 | 59% | 35–40 | 35–41 | 34–41 | 33–43 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 34 | 3% | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 34 | 2% | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–37 | 30–39 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 33 | 1.0% | 31–36 | 30–36 | 29–37 | 28–38 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 29 | 0% | 27–32 | 27–32 | 26–33 | 25–34 |
| Ecolo – PTB | 6 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 10–17 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 52 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 54 | 9% | 95% | |
| 55 | 22% | 86% | |
| 56 | 23% | 64% | Median |
| 57 | 21% | 41% | |
| 58 | 11% | 20% | |
| 59 | 5% | 10% | Last Result |
| 60 | 2% | 5% | |
| 61 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 5% | 98% | |
| 48 | 13% | 93% | |
| 49 | 22% | 80% | |
| 50 | 25% | 58% | Median |
| 51 | 16% | 33% | |
| 52 | 9% | 17% | |
| 53 | 4% | 8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 4% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 2% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98% | |
| 42 | 7% | 95% | |
| 43 | 14% | 88% | |
| 44 | 18% | 75% | |
| 45 | 20% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 46 | 22% | 36% | |
| 47 | 9% | 14% | |
| 48 | 4% | 5% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 41 | 6% | 97% | |
| 42 | 11% | 91% | |
| 43 | 14% | 80% | |
| 44 | 20% | 66% | Median |
| 45 | 24% | 47% | |
| 46 | 15% | 23% | |
| 47 | 6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 48 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 5% | 96% | |
| 38 | 12% | 92% | Majority |
| 39 | 19% | 80% | |
| 40 | 18% | 61% | Median |
| 41 | 16% | 43% | |
| 42 | 17% | 27% | Last Result |
| 43 | 6% | 10% | |
| 44 | 2% | 4% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 37 | 6% | 97% | |
| 38 | 9% | 91% | Majority |
| 39 | 20% | 82% | |
| 40 | 19% | 61% | Median |
| 41 | 17% | 42% | |
| 42 | 14% | 25% | |
| 43 | 8% | 12% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98% | |
| 35 | 7% | 96% | |
| 36 | 12% | 89% | |
| 37 | 17% | 77% | |
| 38 | 19% | 59% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 22% | 40% | |
| 40 | 13% | 18% | |
| 41 | 4% | 5% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 8% | 96% | |
| 32 | 13% | 88% | Last Result |
| 33 | 19% | 76% | |
| 34 | 21% | 57% | Median |
| 35 | 17% | 36% | |
| 36 | 11% | 19% | |
| 37 | 6% | 9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 31 | 6% | 95% | |
| 32 | 13% | 89% | |
| 33 | 21% | 77% | |
| 34 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 35 | 16% | 37% | |
| 36 | 15% | 21% | |
| 37 | 3% | 6% | |
| 38 | 2% | 2% | Last Result, Majority |
| 39 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 5% | 97% | |
| 31 | 12% | 92% | |
| 32 | 14% | 80% | |
| 33 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 34 | 21% | 48% | Last Result |
| 35 | 15% | 27% | |
| 36 | 7% | 12% | |
| 37 | 4% | 5% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 27 | 13% | 96% | |
| 28 | 19% | 84% | |
| 29 | 22% | 65% | Last Result, Median |
| 30 | 19% | 43% | |
| 31 | 13% | 24% | |
| 32 | 7% | 11% | |
| 33 | 3% | 4% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 6% | 97% | |
| 12 | 17% | 91% | |
| 13 | 32% | 74% | Median |
| 14 | 33% | 42% | |
| 15 | 6% | 9% | |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Dedicated
- Commissioner(s): La Libre Belgique–RTBf
- Fieldwork period: 12–18 May 2015
Calculations
- Sample size: 680
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.76%