Opinion Poll by Dedicated for La Libre Belgique–RTBf, 9–14 September 2015
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 29.7% | 27.5–32.1% | 26.8–32.8% | 26.3–33.4% | 25.3–34.5% |
| MR | 26.7% | 24.3% | 22.2–26.5% | 21.6–27.2% | 21.1–27.7% | 20.1–28.8% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 13.5% | 11.9–15.4% | 11.5–15.9% | 11.1–16.4% | 10.4–17.3% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 9.6% | 8.3–11.3% | 7.9–11.8% | 7.6–12.2% | 7.0–13.0% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.9–10.8% | 7.5–11.3% | 7.2–11.7% | 6.6–12.5% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.6% | 2.8–5.9% | 2.4–6.5% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–3.9% | 1.7–4.2% | 1.4–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 27 | 25–29 | 24–30 | 24–31 | 22–31 |
| MR | 25 | 22 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| cdH | 13 | 12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| PTB | 2 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 4–10 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–10 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 24 | 5% | 98% | |
| 25 | 15% | 92% | |
| 26 | 14% | 77% | |
| 27 | 17% | 63% | Median |
| 28 | 27% | 46% | |
| 29 | 11% | 19% | |
| 30 | 5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 31 | 3% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 20 | 8% | 95% | |
| 21 | 24% | 87% | |
| 22 | 33% | 64% | Median |
| 23 | 14% | 31% | |
| 24 | 10% | 17% | |
| 25 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 10 | 9% | 93% | |
| 11 | 30% | 85% | |
| 12 | 43% | 55% | Median |
| 13 | 8% | 12% | Last Result |
| 14 | 3% | 4% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 9% | 98% | |
| 7 | 40% | 89% | Median |
| 8 | 37% | 48% | |
| 9 | 10% | 12% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 5 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 62% | 96% | Median |
| 7 | 25% | 34% | |
| 8 | 7% | 9% | |
| 9 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 66% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 20% | 34% | Last Result |
| 2 | 12% | 14% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 55 | 100% | 54–57 | 53–58 | 52–58 | 51–60 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 49 | 100% | 47–51 | 46–52 | 46–52 | 44–54 |
| PS – cdH – PTB | 45 | 46 | 100% | 44–48 | 43–49 | 42–49 | 41–50 |
| PS – cdH – Ecolo | 47 | 45 | 100% | 43–47 | 42–48 | 41–48 | 40–50 |
| PS – PTB – Ecolo | 36 | 41 | 97% | 39–43 | 38–44 | 37–45 | 36–45 |
| MR – cdH – Ecolo | 42 | 40 | 91% | 38–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 39 | 75% | 36–41 | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 35 | 6% | 32–37 | 31–38 | 31–38 | 30–39 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 34 | 1.2% | 31–36 | 30–37 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 33 | 2% | 31–36 | 30–36 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 28 | 0% | 27–31 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| PTB – Ecolo | 6 | 14 | 0% | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 10–18 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 53 | 6% | 97% | |
| 54 | 13% | 91% | |
| 55 | 30% | 78% | Median |
| 56 | 23% | 49% | |
| 57 | 18% | 26% | |
| 58 | 5% | 8% | |
| 59 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 46 | 4% | 98% | |
| 47 | 8% | 94% | |
| 48 | 18% | 86% | |
| 49 | 31% | 68% | Median |
| 50 | 20% | 37% | |
| 51 | 11% | 17% | |
| 52 | 4% | 6% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 43 | 6% | 97% | |
| 44 | 9% | 92% | |
| 45 | 15% | 82% | Last Result |
| 46 | 29% | 67% | Median |
| 47 | 19% | 38% | |
| 48 | 13% | 20% | |
| 49 | 5% | 6% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 42 | 6% | 97% | |
| 43 | 10% | 92% | |
| 44 | 16% | 81% | |
| 45 | 28% | 65% | Median |
| 46 | 19% | 37% | |
| 47 | 12% | 19% | Last Result |
| 48 | 5% | 7% | |
| 49 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 37 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 38 | 5% | 97% | Majority |
| 39 | 14% | 91% | |
| 40 | 17% | 77% | Median |
| 41 | 18% | 60% | |
| 42 | 24% | 43% | |
| 43 | 11% | 19% | |
| 44 | 5% | 8% | |
| 45 | 3% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 6% | 97% | |
| 38 | 12% | 91% | Majority |
| 39 | 22% | 79% | |
| 40 | 21% | 57% | Median |
| 41 | 14% | 36% | |
| 42 | 14% | 22% | Last Result |
| 43 | 5% | 8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 36 | 9% | 96% | |
| 37 | 13% | 87% | |
| 38 | 19% | 75% | Majority |
| 39 | 28% | 56% | Median |
| 40 | 17% | 28% | |
| 41 | 7% | 11% | |
| 42 | 3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 4% | 98% | |
| 32 | 9% | 95% | Last Result |
| 33 | 16% | 86% | |
| 34 | 17% | 70% | Median |
| 35 | 21% | 53% | |
| 36 | 18% | 32% | |
| 37 | 8% | 14% | |
| 38 | 4% | 6% | Majority |
| 39 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 4% | 98% | |
| 31 | 10% | 95% | |
| 32 | 15% | 85% | |
| 33 | 18% | 70% | Median |
| 34 | 23% | 52% | Last Result |
| 35 | 16% | 30% | |
| 36 | 8% | 14% | |
| 37 | 4% | 5% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 1.2% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 31 | 7% | 95% | |
| 32 | 14% | 87% | |
| 33 | 26% | 73% | |
| 34 | 19% | 47% | Median |
| 35 | 12% | 28% | |
| 36 | 12% | 16% | |
| 37 | 3% | 4% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 2% | Last Result, Majority |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 7% | 97% | |
| 27 | 19% | 90% | |
| 28 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 29 | 23% | 46% | Last Result |
| 30 | 13% | 23% | |
| 31 | 6% | 11% | |
| 32 | 3% | 5% | |
| 33 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
PTB – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 7% | 98% | |
| 13 | 24% | 90% | Median |
| 14 | 43% | 66% | |
| 15 | 15% | 24% | |
| 16 | 7% | 9% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Dedicated
- Commissioner(s): La Libre Belgique–RTBf
- Fieldwork period: 9–14 September 2015
Calculations
- Sample size: 643
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.52%