Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM, 28 September–4 October 2015

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30.9% 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.7% 22.6–29.6%
MR 26.7% 23.3% 21.7–25.1% 21.2–25.6% 20.8–26.0% 20.0–26.9%
cdH 15.2% 13.3% 12.0–14.7% 11.6–15.2% 11.3–15.5% 10.7–16.2%
Ecolo 8.6% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.0% 7.0–11.6%
PTB 5.8% 8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Parti Populaire 4.9% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.2–6.6%
DéFI 2.5% 1.7% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.7% 0.9–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30 25 24–27 23–28 22–28 21–29
MR 25 23 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–26
cdH 13 12 11–13 11–14 10–14 10–15
Ecolo 4 6 6–8 6–8 6–9 6–10
PTB 2 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 4–9
Parti Populaire 1 2 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
DéFI 0 0 0 0 0 0

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 1.5% 100%  
22 2% 98%  
23 4% 96%  
24 27% 92%  
25 40% 65% Median
26 11% 25%  
27 5% 14%  
28 8% 9%  
29 0.9% 1.0%  
30 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
31 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.5%  
21 17% 97%  
22 27% 80%  
23 21% 53% Median
24 21% 31%  
25 6% 10% Last Result
26 4% 4%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 3% 99.6%  
11 20% 97%  
12 51% 77% Median
13 21% 26% Last Result
14 3% 5%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.4% 100%  
6 51% 99.6% Median
7 37% 49%  
8 8% 12%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.6% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 2% 98%  
6 15% 96%  
7 59% 81% Median
8 20% 22%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 29% 80% Last Result
2 34% 50% Median
3 11% 16%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS – MR – Ecolo 59 55 100% 53–56 52–57 52–57 51–58
PS – MR 55 48 100% 46–49 45–50 45–50 44–52
PS – cdH – Ecolo 47 44 100% 42–46 41–46 41–47 39–48
PS – cdH – PTB 45 44 100% 42–46 42–46 41–47 40–48
MR – cdH – Ecolo 42 42 99.6% 39–43 39–44 38–45 38–46
PS – Ecolo – PTB 36 39 80% 37–41 36–41 36–42 34–43
PS – cdH 43 37 34% 35–39 35–40 34–40 33–41
MR – cdH 38 35 4% 33–36 32–37 32–38 31–39
PS – Ecolo 34 31 0% 30–34 29–34 29–35 27–36
PS – PTB 32 32 0% 30–34 30–35 29–35 28–36
MR – Ecolo 29 29 0% 27–31 27–32 27–33 26–34
Ecolo – PTB 6 14 0% 12–15 12–15 11–16 10–17

PS – MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 2% 99.8%  
52 7% 98%  
53 17% 91%  
54 22% 74% Median
55 32% 52%  
56 13% 20%  
57 5% 7%  
58 0.9% 1.2%  
59 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
60 0% 0%  

PS – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 1.0% 99.7%  
45 6% 98.7%  
46 12% 93%  
47 21% 80%  
48 25% 59% Median
49 25% 34%  
50 7% 9%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

PS – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100% Majority
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 1.5% 99.3%  
41 6% 98%  
42 14% 92%  
43 22% 78% Median
44 26% 57%  
45 18% 31%  
46 9% 13%  
47 3% 4% Last Result
48 0.7% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

PS – cdH – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.3% 100%  
40 1.4% 99.7%  
41 3% 98%  
42 11% 95%  
43 19% 84%  
44 27% 66% Median
45 19% 39% Last Result
46 15% 20%  
47 4% 5%  
48 0.8% 0.9%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

MR – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.6% Majority
39 9% 97%  
40 13% 89%  
41 20% 75% Median
42 34% 55% Last Result
43 14% 21%  
44 4% 7%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

PS – Ecolo – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 6% 98% Last Result
37 11% 92%  
38 26% 80% Median, Majority
39 28% 54%  
40 15% 26%  
41 8% 11%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.6% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

PS – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 1.5% 99.7%  
34 3% 98%  
35 7% 96%  
36 21% 88%  
37 32% 67% Median
38 18% 34% Majority
39 9% 17%  
40 6% 7%  
41 1.2% 1.4%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.7%  
32 4% 98.7%  
33 14% 95%  
34 21% 81%  
35 25% 60% Median
36 25% 35%  
37 6% 9%  
38 3% 4% Last Result, Majority
39 0.7% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

PS – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.5% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.5%  
29 4% 98%  
30 15% 95%  
31 29% 79% Median
32 24% 50%  
33 13% 26%  
34 9% 13% Last Result
35 3% 4%  
36 0.7% 0.9%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0% Majority

PS – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 1.3% 99.6%  
29 2% 98%  
30 9% 96%  
31 24% 87%  
32 31% 63% Last Result, Median
33 16% 33%  
34 11% 16%  
35 4% 6%  
36 1.0% 1.2%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0% Majority

MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.8%  
27 9% 99.2%  
28 19% 90%  
29 20% 70% Last Result, Median
30 30% 50%  
31 11% 20%  
32 6% 9%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Ecolo – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.6% 100%  
11 2% 99.4%  
12 9% 97%  
13 29% 89% Median
14 46% 60%  
15 9% 13%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.6% 1.0%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations