Opinion Poll by Dedicated for La Libre Belgique–RTBf, 3–7 December 2015

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30.9% 27.3% 25.4–29.2% 24.9–29.8% 24.4–30.2% 23.6–31.2%
MR 26.7% 24.7% 23.0–26.6% 22.5–27.2% 22.0–27.6% 21.2–28.6%
cdH 15.2% 13.5% 12.1–15.1% 11.8–15.5% 11.4–15.9% 10.8–16.7%
PTB 5.8% 10.3% 9.1–11.7% 8.8–12.1% 8.5–12.5% 8.0–13.2%
Ecolo 8.6% 9.5% 8.3–10.8% 8.0–11.2% 7.7–11.5% 7.2–12.2%
Parti Populaire 4.9% 5.4% 4.5–6.5% 4.3–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.7–7.6%
DéFI 2.5% 3.2% 2.5–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30 24 22–27 22–27 21–28 21–29
MR 25 23 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–26
cdH 13 12 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
PTB 2 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
Ecolo 4 6 6–7 6–8 6–9 5–10
Parti Populaire 1 2 1–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
DéFI 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 4% 99.9%  
22 8% 96%  
23 10% 88%  
24 31% 78% Median
25 21% 48%  
26 16% 27%  
27 7% 11%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
31 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.8%  
20 5% 99.3%  
21 23% 94%  
22 20% 71%  
23 27% 51% Median
24 13% 24%  
25 5% 10% Last Result
26 5% 5%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.1% 99.8%  
10 14% 98.8%  
11 33% 85%  
12 38% 51% Median
13 12% 13% Last Result
14 0.8% 1.2%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 31% 98%  
8 46% 67% Median
9 18% 21%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 1.1% 99.9%  
6 66% 98.9% Median
7 25% 33%  
8 5% 8%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.7% 0.9%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 18% 91% Last Result
2 39% 73% Median
3 22% 34%  
4 10% 12%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS – MR – Ecolo 59 54 100% 52–55 51–56 50–56 50–57
PS – MR 55 47 100% 45–49 44–49 44–50 43–51
PS – cdH – PTB 45 44 100% 42–46 41–46 40–47 39–48
PS – cdH – Ecolo 47 43 99.9% 40–45 39–45 39–45 38–47
MR – cdH – Ecolo 42 40 97% 38–43 38–43 37–44 36–45
PS – PTB – Ecolo 36 39 79% 37–41 36–42 35–42 35–43
PS – cdH 43 36 18% 34–38 33–39 33–39 32–40
MR – cdH 38 34 2% 32–36 31–37 31–37 30–38
PS – PTB 32 32 0.1% 30–34 30–35 29–36 28–37
PS – Ecolo 34 31 0% 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–35
MR – Ecolo 29 29 0% 27–31 27–32 26–32 26–33
PTB – Ecolo 6 14 0% 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–18

PS – MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.4% 100%  
50 2% 99.6%  
51 7% 97%  
52 13% 90%  
53 27% 78% Median
54 26% 51%  
55 18% 25%  
56 5% 7%  
57 1.4% 2%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

PS – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 99.7%  
44 4% 98.6%  
45 11% 95%  
46 16% 84%  
47 30% 69% Median
48 24% 39%  
49 12% 15%  
50 3% 3%  
51 0.5% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

PS – cdH – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100% Majority
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 6% 97%  
42 13% 91%  
43 17% 77%  
44 21% 60% Median
45 21% 39% Last Result
46 14% 19%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.1% 1.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

PS – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 1.0% 99.9% Majority
39 4% 98.9%  
40 9% 95%  
41 14% 86%  
42 20% 72% Median
43 24% 51%  
44 15% 27%  
45 10% 12%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

MR – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 3% 99.5%  
38 9% 97% Majority
39 17% 88%  
40 24% 72%  
41 22% 48% Median
42 15% 26% Last Result
43 7% 11%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.0% 1.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

PS – PTB – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 2% 99.7%  
36 7% 97% Last Result
37 11% 90%  
38 23% 79% Median, Majority
39 20% 56%  
40 20% 36%  
41 9% 16%  
42 5% 7%  
43 1.1% 1.4%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

PS – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.4% 100%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 7% 98%  
34 11% 91%  
35 16% 80%  
36 22% 64% Median
37 23% 42%  
38 12% 18% Majority
39 6% 7%  
40 0.8% 1.0%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.9% 99.8%  
31 5% 98.9%  
32 11% 94%  
33 19% 83%  
34 25% 64%  
35 22% 38% Median
36 9% 16%  
37 5% 7%  
38 2% 2% Last Result, Majority
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

PS – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 1.2% 100%  
29 3% 98.7%  
30 9% 95%  
31 17% 87%  
32 22% 69% Last Result, Median
33 20% 47%  
34 17% 27%  
35 7% 10%  
36 3% 3%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1% Majority
39 0% 0%  

PS – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 2% 99.9%  
28 6% 98%  
29 7% 92%  
30 27% 84% Median
31 21% 57%  
32 17% 37%  
33 13% 19%  
34 5% 6% Last Result
35 1.1% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0% Majority

MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.6%  
27 20% 97%  
28 17% 78%  
29 25% 61% Last Result, Median
30 20% 36%  
31 9% 16%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

PTB – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 17% 98%  
14 46% 81% Median
15 22% 35%  
16 10% 13%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.9% 1.2%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations