Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 15–20 January 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30.9% 26.7% 25.0–28.5% 24.5–29.0% 24.1–29.5% 23.3–30.4%
MR 26.7% 23.1% 21.5–24.9% 21.0–25.4% 20.6–25.8% 19.9–26.6%
cdH 15.2% 11.1% 10.0–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.8–13.9%
Ecolo 8.6% 9.2% 8.1–10.4% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.1% 7.1–11.7%
PTB 5.8% 8.8% 7.8–10.0% 7.5–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.8–11.3%
Parti Populaire 4.9% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
DéFI 2.5% 3.4% 2.8–4.2% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.1%
La Droite 1.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–30
MR 25 22 21–24 21–25 20–26 19–26
cdH 13 10 9–12 8–12 7–12 6–13
Ecolo 4 7 6–8 6–9 6–10 6–11
PTB 2 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Parti Populaire 1 2 1–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
DéFI 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
La Droite 0 0 0 0 0 0–2

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 1.3% 99.6%  
23 5% 98%  
24 20% 93%  
25 16% 73%  
26 17% 57% Median
27 15% 40%  
28 18% 24%  
29 6% 7%  
30 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.8%  
20 3% 98.9%  
21 23% 96%  
22 30% 73% Median
23 21% 43%  
24 13% 22%  
25 5% 8% Last Result
26 2% 3%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 1.2% 98%  
8 3% 97%  
9 18% 94%  
10 38% 76% Median
11 28% 38%  
12 10% 10%  
13 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.3% 100%  
6 48% 99.7%  
7 38% 52% Median
8 7% 15%  
9 5% 7%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.5% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 1.3% 99.5%  
6 9% 98%  
7 53% 90% Median
8 33% 37%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 19% 93% Last Result
2 33% 74% Median
3 18% 40%  
4 20% 23%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0.2% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

La Droite

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 2%  
2 1.1% 1.3%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS – MR – Ecolo 59 55 100% 53–57 53–58 52–59 51–60
PS – MR 55 48 100% 46–50 46–51 45–52 44–54
PS – cdH – PTB 45 43 99.9% 41–46 40–46 40–46 39–47
PS – cdH – Ecolo 47 43 99.9% 40–45 40–45 39–46 39–47
MR – cdH – Ecolo 42 39 86% 37–42 37–42 36–43 35–44
PS – Ecolo – PTB 36 40 89% 37–42 37–43 36–43 36–44
PS – cdH 43 36 25% 34–38 33–39 33–39 31–40
PS – PTB 32 33 0.5% 31–36 30–36 30–37 29–38
MR – cdH 38 33 0.2% 30–35 30–35 30–36 28–37
MR – Ecolo 29 29 0% 27–31 27–32 27–33 26–34

PS – MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.8%  
52 3% 99.2%  
53 13% 96%  
54 19% 83%  
55 27% 64% Median
56 14% 37%  
57 16% 23%  
58 4% 7%  
59 1.4% 3% Last Result
60 0.9% 1.3%  
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

PS – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.6% 99.7%  
45 3% 99.1%  
46 7% 96%  
47 23% 89%  
48 20% 66% Median
49 21% 46%  
50 15% 25%  
51 6% 10%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.7% 1.3%  
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

PS – cdH – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9% Majority
39 1.1% 99.5%  
40 4% 98%  
41 10% 94%  
42 18% 84%  
43 16% 66% Median
44 21% 50%  
45 16% 29% Last Result
46 10% 13%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

PS – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9% Majority
39 2% 99.6%  
40 8% 97%  
41 14% 90%  
42 18% 76%  
43 18% 58% Median
44 20% 39%  
45 15% 20%  
46 4% 4%  
47 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

MR – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.8%  
36 4% 99.1%  
37 9% 95%  
38 19% 86% Majority
39 20% 67% Median
40 21% 47%  
41 14% 26%  
42 8% 11% Last Result
43 3% 4%  
44 0.8% 0.9%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

PS – Ecolo – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.5% Last Result
37 9% 97%  
38 14% 89% Majority
39 13% 75%  
40 22% 62% Median
41 17% 40%  
42 16% 24%  
43 6% 8%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

PS – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.4%  
33 5% 98%  
34 15% 93%  
35 18% 78%  
36 16% 61% Median
37 19% 44%  
38 18% 25% Majority
39 6% 8%  
40 1.3% 1.5%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

PS – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 1.1% 99.7%  
30 4% 98.6%  
31 16% 95%  
32 15% 78% Last Result
33 20% 63% Median
34 16% 44%  
35 17% 28%  
36 7% 11%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.5% 0.5% Majority
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.3%  
30 8% 98%  
31 17% 89%  
32 20% 72% Median
33 22% 52%  
34 17% 30%  
35 8% 12%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.9% 1.1%  
38 0.2% 0.2% Last Result, Majority
39 0% 0%  

MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 1.4% 99.6%  
27 14% 98%  
28 20% 85%  
29 24% 65% Last Result, Median
30 22% 41%  
31 10% 19%  
32 5% 9%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations