Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 2–6 September 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30.9% 25.1% 23.0–27.3% 22.5–27.9% 22.0–28.5% 21.0–29.6%
MR 26.7% 22.4% 20.5–24.6% 19.9–25.2% 19.5–25.7% 18.5–26.8%
PTB 5.8% 13.9% 12.3–15.8% 11.9–16.3% 11.5–16.7% 10.8–17.6%
cdH 15.2% 11.7% 10.3–13.5% 9.9–13.9% 9.5–14.4% 8.9–15.2%
Ecolo 8.6% 10.0% 8.6–11.6% 8.3–12.1% 7.9–12.5% 7.3–13.3%
Parti Populaire 4.9% 4.8% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.5–6.7% 3.1–7.4%
DéFI 2.5% 2.9% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.5% 1.6–5.0%
La Droite 1.4% 2.6% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.9% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.7%
Wallonie d’Abord 0.4% 2.3% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.8% 1.2–4.3%
FW 0.1% 1.0% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.1% 0.4–2.5%
PIRATE 0.2% 0.9% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.3–2.3%
R.W.F. 0.5% 0.7% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS 30 22 21–25 21–27 21–27 19–27
MR 25 22 18–23 18–23 18–24 16–25
PTB 2 12 10–13 9–13 9–14 9–15
cdH 13 10 9–12 7–12 6–13 6–13
Ecolo 4 6 6–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Parti Populaire 1 2 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–5
DéFI 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
La Droite 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Wallonie d’Abord 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
FW 0 0 0 0 0 0
PIRATE 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
R.W.F. 0 0 0 0 0 0

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.8%  
20 1.0% 98.8%  
21 39% 98%  
22 15% 59% Median
23 21% 43%  
24 12% 22%  
25 4% 10%  
26 1.3% 7%  
27 5% 5%  
28 0.2% 0.4%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0% Last Result

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 0.3% 99.4%  
18 13% 99.0%  
19 6% 86%  
20 17% 80%  
21 10% 63%  
22 36% 53% Median
23 13% 17%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 6% 99.7%  
10 18% 94%  
11 11% 75%  
12 24% 65% Median
13 38% 40%  
14 2% 3%  
15 1.2% 1.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 4% 99.9%  
7 1.1% 96%  
8 0.9% 94%  
9 8% 93%  
10 64% 85% Median
11 8% 21%  
12 8% 13%  
13 5% 5% Last Result
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.1% 100%  
6 58% 99.8% Median
7 22% 41%  
8 8% 20%  
9 6% 12%  
10 4% 6%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100%  
1 7% 66% Last Result
2 31% 58% Median
3 24% 28%  
4 2% 4%  
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

La Droite

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.6%  
2 0.2% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Wallonie d’Abord

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wallonie d’Abord page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 28% 36%  
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

FW

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FW page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

PIRATE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PIRATE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 79% 80% Median
2 0.9% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

R.W.F.

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the R.W.F. page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
PS – MR – Ecolo 59 50 100% 48–53 47–54 47–56 46–56
PS – MR 55 43 99.8% 41–46 41–48 40–49 38–49
PS – PTB – cdH 45 44 99.9% 42–46 41–47 40–47 39–48
PS – PTB – Ecolo 36 41 97% 39–44 38–45 37–46 36–46
PS – cdH – Ecolo 47 39 81% 37–41 37–43 37–43 34–45
MR – cdH – Ecolo 42 38 69% 35–41 34–41 34–42 33–42
PS – PTB 32 34 5% 31–36 31–38 31–39 30–40
PS – cdH 43 33 0.4% 31–34 31–35 30–36 27–37
MR – cdH 38 32 0% 28–33 28–34 28–34 26–35
MR – Ecolo 29 28 0% 25–31 25–31 24–31 24–33

PS – MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.4% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.6%  
47 8% 99.1%  
48 7% 91%  
49 33% 84%  
50 5% 51% Median
51 20% 46%  
52 13% 26%  
53 3% 13%  
54 5% 10%  
55 1.2% 4%  
56 3% 3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

PS – MR

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.8% Majority
39 0.7% 99.5%  
40 2% 98.8%  
41 14% 97%  
42 14% 83%  
43 30% 69%  
44 10% 39% Median
45 18% 29%  
46 2% 11%  
47 3% 9%  
48 3% 7%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

PS – PTB – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9% Majority
39 0.6% 99.6%  
40 2% 98.9%  
41 6% 97%  
42 8% 91%  
43 6% 83%  
44 32% 77% Median
45 15% 45% Last Result
46 24% 30%  
47 4% 5%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

PS – PTB – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 1.2% 99.9% Last Result
37 2% 98.7%  
38 4% 97% Majority
39 18% 93%  
40 21% 75% Median
41 13% 54%  
42 19% 41%  
43 11% 22%  
44 3% 11%  
45 4% 8%  
46 4% 4%  
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

PS – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.5% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.5%  
36 1.3% 99.3%  
37 17% 98%  
38 14% 81% Median, Majority
39 29% 67%  
40 8% 39%  
41 20% 30%  
42 5% 10%  
43 4% 5%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.8%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0% 0.1% Last Result
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

MR – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 5% 99.5%  
35 12% 94%  
36 6% 82%  
37 8% 77%  
38 37% 69% Median, Majority
39 9% 32%  
40 11% 23%  
41 9% 12%  
42 3% 3% Last Result
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

PS – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.7%  
31 8% 98%  
32 10% 90% Last Result
33 13% 79%  
34 25% 66% Median
35 11% 41%  
36 24% 31%  
37 2% 7%  
38 1.3% 5% Majority
39 3% 4%  
40 0.8% 1.0%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

PS – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.6% 100%  
28 0.7% 99.4%  
29 1.0% 98.7%  
30 3% 98%  
31 30% 95%  
32 13% 65% Median
33 26% 52%  
34 16% 26%  
35 6% 10%  
36 3% 4%  
37 1.0% 1.4%  
38 0.3% 0.4% Majority
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.7% 99.8%  
27 0.6% 99.1%  
28 19% 98.6%  
29 3% 79%  
30 11% 76%  
31 7% 65%  
32 35% 58% Median
33 15% 23%  
34 7% 8%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 4% 99.8%  
25 10% 96%  
26 10% 86%  
27 11% 76%  
28 33% 64% Median
29 12% 31% Last Result
30 9% 19%  
31 8% 10%  
32 1.3% 2%  
33 0.7% 1.0%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations