Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 19–25 September 2016
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 24.7% | 23.0–26.6% | 22.5–27.1% | 22.1–27.5% | 21.3–28.4% |
| MR | 26.7% | 22.3% | 20.6–24.1% | 20.2–24.6% | 19.8–25.0% | 19.0–25.9% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 16.3% | 14.8–17.9% | 14.4–18.3% | 14.1–18.7% | 13.4–19.5% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 9.8% | 8.6–11.1% | 8.3–11.5% | 8.1–11.8% | 7.5–12.5% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.0–9.4% | 5.6–10.0% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| La Droite | 1.4% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.3–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.4–4.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 23 | 21–25 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 19–27 |
| MR | 25 | 20 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| PTB | 2 | 14 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| cdH | 13 | 9 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–7 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 3 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 0–5 |
| La Droite | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 5% | 96% | |
| 21 | 25% | 92% | |
| 22 | 16% | 67% | |
| 23 | 20% | 51% | Median |
| 24 | 17% | 31% | |
| 25 | 7% | 14% | |
| 26 | 4% | 7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 19 | 6% | 97% | |
| 20 | 49% | 91% | Median |
| 21 | 19% | 43% | |
| 22 | 13% | 23% | |
| 23 | 6% | 11% | |
| 24 | 4% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 98% | |
| 12 | 9% | 95% | |
| 13 | 17% | 87% | |
| 14 | 30% | 69% | Median |
| 15 | 27% | 39% | |
| 16 | 12% | 13% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 20% | 94% | |
| 7 | 12% | 75% | |
| 8 | 12% | 63% | |
| 9 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 10 | 37% | 37% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 6% | 93% | Last Result |
| 5 | 23% | 86% | |
| 6 | 62% | 64% | Median |
| 7 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 2 | 25% | 93% | |
| 3 | 37% | 68% | Median |
| 4 | 18% | 31% | |
| 5 | 13% | 13% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
La Droite
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 62% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 38% | |
| 2 | 22% | 36% | |
| 3 | 5% | 14% | |
| 4 | 9% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 49 | 100% | 46–52 | 46–52 | 45–53 | 44–54 |
| PS – PTB – cdH | 45 | 45 | 100% | 42–47 | 42–48 | 41–48 | 40–50 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 43 | 99.9% | 41–46 | 40–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 |
| PS – PTB – Ecolo | 36 | 42 | 98.8% | 40–45 | 39–46 | 38–46 | 37–47 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 36 | 33% | 34–39 | 33–40 | 33–41 | 32–42 |
| PS – cdH – Ecolo | 47 | 36 | 24% | 34–39 | 33–39 | 33–40 | 31–41 |
| MR – cdH – Ecolo | 42 | 35 | 4% | 32–37 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–34 | 27–34 | 26–35 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 29 | 0% | 26–31 | 26–32 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 26 | 0% | 24–28 | 24–29 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98% | |
| 46 | 11% | 95% | |
| 47 | 14% | 85% | |
| 48 | 18% | 70% | |
| 49 | 19% | 53% | Median |
| 50 | 13% | 34% | |
| 51 | 10% | 21% | |
| 52 | 7% | 11% | |
| 53 | 3% | 4% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 42 | 7% | 96% | |
| 43 | 11% | 88% | |
| 44 | 17% | 78% | |
| 45 | 26% | 61% | Last Result |
| 46 | 17% | 35% | Median |
| 47 | 12% | 19% | |
| 48 | 4% | 6% | |
| 49 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 5% | 98% | |
| 41 | 15% | 93% | |
| 42 | 15% | 78% | |
| 43 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 44 | 16% | 44% | |
| 45 | 12% | 28% | |
| 46 | 9% | 16% | |
| 47 | 5% | 7% | |
| 48 | 2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.8% | Majority |
| 39 | 6% | 96% | |
| 40 | 11% | 90% | |
| 41 | 23% | 79% | |
| 42 | 15% | 56% | |
| 43 | 16% | 41% | Median |
| 44 | 12% | 25% | |
| 45 | 7% | 13% | |
| 46 | 4% | 6% | |
| 47 | 2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 33 | 3% | 98% | |
| 34 | 8% | 95% | |
| 35 | 19% | 87% | |
| 36 | 19% | 69% | |
| 37 | 17% | 50% | Median |
| 38 | 15% | 33% | Majority |
| 39 | 8% | 18% | |
| 40 | 5% | 9% | |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 33 | 5% | 98% | |
| 34 | 9% | 93% | |
| 35 | 17% | 84% | |
| 36 | 22% | 67% | |
| 37 | 21% | 45% | |
| 38 | 14% | 24% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 6% | 11% | |
| 40 | 3% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – cdH – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 6% | 96% | |
| 32 | 12% | 90% | |
| 33 | 12% | 78% | |
| 34 | 14% | 66% | |
| 35 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 36 | 17% | 32% | |
| 37 | 12% | 16% | |
| 38 | 3% | 4% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 6% | 97% | |
| 29 | 14% | 91% | |
| 30 | 20% | 77% | |
| 31 | 24% | 57% | |
| 32 | 15% | 33% | Median |
| 33 | 9% | 17% | |
| 34 | 6% | 8% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 11% | 96% | |
| 27 | 11% | 85% | |
| 28 | 13% | 73% | |
| 29 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 30 | 23% | 45% | |
| 31 | 15% | 22% | |
| 32 | 5% | 7% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 24 | 6% | 95% | |
| 25 | 22% | 90% | |
| 26 | 34% | 68% | Median |
| 27 | 17% | 34% | |
| 28 | 9% | 17% | |
| 29 | 5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 30 | 2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws
- Fieldwork period: 19–25 September 2016
Calculations
- Sample size: 983
- Simulations done: 16,777,216
- Error estimate: 0.82%