Opinion Poll by iVox for Sudpresse, 16–17 February 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 21.3% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.2–23.5% | 18.9–23.9% | 18.1–24.8% |
| MR | 26.7% | 20.7% | 19.1–22.4% | 18.7–22.9% | 18.3–23.3% | 17.5–24.1% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 17.4% | 15.9–19.0% | 15.5–19.5% | 15.2–19.9% | 14.5–20.7% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 13.7% | 12.4–15.2% | 12.0–15.6% | 11.7–16.0% | 11.1–16.7% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 10.1% | 9.0–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% | 8.4–12.1% | 7.8–12.8% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.1–9.2% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 |
| MR | 25 | 19 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 15–22 |
| PTB | 2 | 15 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–17 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 11 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| cdH | 13 | 7 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| DéFI | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 16 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 18% | 94% | |
| 18 | 31% | 75% | Median |
| 19 | 31% | 44% | |
| 20 | 7% | 14% | |
| 21 | 6% | 6% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 8% | 93% | |
| 17 | 15% | 85% | |
| 18 | 16% | 70% | |
| 19 | 20% | 54% | Median |
| 20 | 31% | 34% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 5% | 98% | |
| 13 | 11% | 93% | |
| 14 | 16% | 81% | |
| 15 | 47% | 66% | Median |
| 16 | 13% | 19% | |
| 17 | 6% | 6% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 4% | 97% | |
| 11 | 52% | 94% | Median |
| 12 | 19% | 42% | |
| 13 | 22% | 22% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 34% | 94% | |
| 7 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 10% | 48% | |
| 9 | 17% | 38% | |
| 10 | 20% | 20% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 19% | 91% | |
| 4 | 49% | 71% | Median |
| 5 | 19% | 23% | |
| 6 | 3% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 42% | 51% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 48 | 100% | 46–51 | 45–51 | 44–52 | 43–53 |
| PS – PTB – Ecolo | 36 | 45 | 100% | 42–47 | 42–47 | 41–47 | 40–48 |
| PS – PTB – cdH | 45 | 40 | 94% | 38–43 | 37–44 | 37–44 | 36–45 |
| PS – Ecolo – cdH | 47 | 37 | 50% | 35–40 | 35–41 | 34–42 | 33–43 |
| MR – Ecolo – cdH | 42 | 38 | 51% | 35–40 | 34–40 | 34–41 | 33–42 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 37 | 38% | 34–39 | 33–40 | 33–40 | 32–41 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 33 | 0.1% | 31–35 | 30–36 | 30–36 | 28–36 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 30 | 0% | 27–32 | 27–33 | 26–33 | 25–33 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 26 | 0% | 24–28 | 23–29 | 22–30 | 22–31 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 26 | 0% | 24–28 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 22–30 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 45 | 5% | 97% | |
| 46 | 13% | 93% | |
| 47 | 14% | 79% | |
| 48 | 17% | 65% | Median |
| 49 | 20% | 48% | |
| 50 | 14% | 28% | |
| 51 | 9% | 14% | |
| 52 | 4% | 5% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 42 | 8% | 95% | |
| 43 | 12% | 87% | |
| 44 | 22% | 76% | Median |
| 45 | 26% | 54% | |
| 46 | 16% | 27% | |
| 47 | 10% | 11% | |
| 48 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98% | |
| 38 | 7% | 94% | Majority |
| 39 | 13% | 87% | |
| 40 | 25% | 74% | Median |
| 41 | 19% | 49% | |
| 42 | 16% | 30% | |
| 43 | 9% | 15% | |
| 44 | 4% | 6% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98% | |
| 35 | 9% | 96% | |
| 36 | 20% | 87% | Median |
| 37 | 17% | 67% | |
| 38 | 22% | 50% | Majority |
| 39 | 14% | 28% | |
| 40 | 8% | 14% | |
| 41 | 3% | 5% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 35 | 6% | 95% | |
| 36 | 17% | 89% | |
| 37 | 22% | 72% | Median |
| 38 | 21% | 51% | Majority |
| 39 | 15% | 30% | |
| 40 | 11% | 15% | |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 34 | 9% | 95% | |
| 35 | 13% | 86% | |
| 36 | 19% | 74% | |
| 37 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 38 | 17% | 38% | Majority |
| 39 | 16% | 21% | |
| 40 | 4% | 5% | |
| 41 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 5% | 98% | |
| 31 | 11% | 93% | |
| 32 | 20% | 82% | Last Result |
| 33 | 22% | 62% | Median |
| 34 | 25% | 40% | |
| 35 | 9% | 15% | |
| 36 | 6% | 6% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 6% | 96% | |
| 28 | 12% | 90% | |
| 29 | 16% | 78% | Last Result |
| 30 | 20% | 62% | Median |
| 31 | 23% | 42% | |
| 32 | 11% | 19% | |
| 33 | 7% | 8% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 4% | 97% | |
| 24 | 13% | 93% | |
| 25 | 26% | 80% | Median |
| 26 | 17% | 54% | |
| 27 | 17% | 37% | |
| 28 | 13% | 20% | |
| 29 | 4% | 7% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 7% | 98% | |
| 24 | 8% | 91% | |
| 25 | 19% | 82% | |
| 26 | 26% | 63% | Median |
| 27 | 16% | 37% | |
| 28 | 15% | 21% | |
| 29 | 5% | 6% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: iVox
- Commissioner(s): Sudpresse
- Fieldwork period: 16–17 February 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.13%