Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 16–20 March 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
MR |
26.7% |
22.4% |
20.4–24.5% |
19.9–25.1% |
19.4–25.7% |
18.5–26.7% |
PS |
30.9% |
21.4% |
19.4–23.5% |
18.9–24.1% |
18.4–24.6% |
17.5–25.7% |
PTB |
5.8% |
20.0% |
18.2–22.1% |
17.6–22.7% |
17.2–23.2% |
16.3–24.2% |
cdH |
15.2% |
11.9% |
10.5–13.7% |
10.0–14.2% |
9.7–14.6% |
9.0–15.5% |
Ecolo |
8.6% |
11.3% |
9.9–13.0% |
9.5–13.5% |
9.2–14.0% |
8.5–14.8% |
La Droite |
1.4% |
2.5% |
1.9–3.5% |
1.7–3.7% |
1.6–4.0% |
1.3–4.5% |
DéFI |
2.5% |
2.4% |
1.8–3.3% |
1.6–3.6% |
1.4–3.8% |
1.2–4.3% |
Parti Populaire |
4.9% |
2.2% |
1.6–3.1% |
1.5–3.4% |
1.3–3.6% |
1.1–4.1% |
Wallonie d’Abord |
0.4% |
1.5% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.9–2.5% |
0.8–2.7% |
0.6–3.1% |
FW |
0.1% |
1.5% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.9–2.5% |
0.8–2.7% |
0.6–3.1% |
R.W.F. |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.2–1.3% |
0.1–1.6% |
PIRATE |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.0–0.7% |
0.0–0.8% |
0.0–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
MR |
25 |
20 |
18–22 |
18–22 |
17–22 |
16–25 |
PS |
30 |
19 |
18–20 |
17–21 |
16–21 |
16–23 |
PTB |
2 |
18 |
16–19 |
16–20 |
15–20 |
14–21 |
cdH |
13 |
10 |
9–12 |
8–12 |
7–12 |
6–13 |
Ecolo |
4 |
8 |
6–11 |
6–11 |
6–12 |
6–13 |
La Droite |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
DéFI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Parti Populaire |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Wallonie d’Abord |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
FW |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
R.W.F. |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
PIRATE |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.3% |
99.6% |
|
17 |
3% |
98% |
|
18 |
6% |
95% |
|
19 |
4% |
89% |
|
20 |
59% |
85% |
Median |
21 |
4% |
27% |
|
22 |
20% |
23% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
25 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
5% |
96% |
|
18 |
30% |
91% |
|
19 |
40% |
61% |
Median |
20 |
14% |
21% |
|
21 |
6% |
7% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
24 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
15 |
3% |
98% |
|
16 |
18% |
95% |
|
17 |
18% |
77% |
|
18 |
38% |
59% |
Median |
19 |
14% |
22% |
|
20 |
7% |
8% |
|
21 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
6 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
7 |
3% |
98% |
|
8 |
5% |
95% |
|
9 |
23% |
90% |
|
10 |
49% |
68% |
Median |
11 |
7% |
19% |
|
12 |
10% |
12% |
|
13 |
1.4% |
2% |
Last Result |
14 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
12% |
100% |
|
7 |
11% |
88% |
|
8 |
36% |
76% |
Median |
9 |
17% |
40% |
|
10 |
6% |
23% |
|
11 |
15% |
17% |
|
12 |
2% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
La Droite
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Wallonie d’Abord
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wallonie d’Abord page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
9% |
9% |
|
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
FW
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FW page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
R.W.F.
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the R.W.F. page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
PIRATE
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PIRATE page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.0% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
MR – PS – Ecolo |
59 |
47 |
100% |
45–49 |
45–52 |
44–52 |
43–53 |
PS – PTB – cdH |
45 |
46 |
100% |
44–48 |
43–49 |
42–49 |
41–50 |
PS – PTB – Ecolo |
36 |
45 |
100% |
43–47 |
42–48 |
41–48 |
41–49 |
MR – cdH – Ecolo |
42 |
38 |
86% |
37–40 |
36–41 |
36–42 |
35–43 |
MR – PS |
55 |
39 |
85% |
36–41 |
35–42 |
35–42 |
34–43 |
PS – cdH – Ecolo |
47 |
37 |
24% |
36–39 |
35–41 |
34–41 |
33–43 |
PS – PTB |
32 |
37 |
13% |
34–38 |
34–38 |
33–39 |
32–40 |
MR – cdH |
38 |
30 |
0% |
28–32 |
27–33 |
27–34 |
26–34 |
MR – Ecolo |
29 |
28 |
0% |
27–31 |
26–31 |
26–33 |
24–34 |
PS – cdH |
43 |
29 |
0% |
27–31 |
26–31 |
25–31 |
24–33 |
MR – PS – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
43 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
44 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
45 |
7% |
96% |
|
46 |
6% |
89% |
|
47 |
50% |
83% |
Median |
48 |
6% |
32% |
|
49 |
19% |
27% |
|
50 |
1.3% |
8% |
|
51 |
1.5% |
7% |
|
52 |
5% |
5% |
|
53 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
PS – PTB – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
2% |
98% |
|
43 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
44 |
9% |
95% |
|
45 |
12% |
86% |
Last Result |
46 |
24% |
73% |
|
47 |
33% |
49% |
Median |
48 |
10% |
16% |
|
49 |
5% |
6% |
|
50 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
51 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
52 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
PS – PTB – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
39 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
42 |
3% |
96% |
|
43 |
12% |
93% |
|
44 |
17% |
81% |
|
45 |
34% |
64% |
Median |
46 |
16% |
30% |
|
47 |
7% |
14% |
|
48 |
6% |
7% |
|
49 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
50 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
MR – cdH – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
36 |
6% |
99.1% |
|
37 |
7% |
94% |
|
38 |
45% |
86% |
Median, Majority |
39 |
24% |
42% |
|
40 |
9% |
18% |
|
41 |
5% |
9% |
|
42 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
43 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
44 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
MR – PS
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
1.5% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
3% |
98% |
|
36 |
6% |
95% |
|
37 |
4% |
89% |
|
38 |
21% |
85% |
Majority |
39 |
31% |
64% |
Median |
40 |
9% |
33% |
|
41 |
15% |
23% |
|
42 |
8% |
8% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
44 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
45 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
PS – cdH – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
34 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
35 |
5% |
96% |
|
36 |
24% |
91% |
|
37 |
43% |
67% |
Median |
38 |
8% |
24% |
Majority |
39 |
8% |
16% |
|
40 |
3% |
8% |
|
41 |
4% |
5% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
PS – PTB
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
2% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
33 |
3% |
98% |
|
34 |
6% |
95% |
|
35 |
9% |
90% |
|
36 |
24% |
80% |
|
37 |
43% |
57% |
Median |
38 |
11% |
13% |
Majority |
39 |
2% |
3% |
|
40 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
42 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
MR – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
6% |
98.7% |
|
28 |
9% |
93% |
|
29 |
15% |
84% |
|
30 |
37% |
69% |
Median |
31 |
14% |
32% |
|
32 |
12% |
18% |
|
33 |
2% |
6% |
|
34 |
3% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result, Majority |
MR – Ecolo
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
0.7% |
99.5% |
|
26 |
8% |
98.8% |
|
27 |
7% |
90% |
|
28 |
34% |
83% |
Median |
29 |
26% |
50% |
Last Result |
30 |
11% |
24% |
|
31 |
9% |
13% |
|
32 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
33 |
2% |
3% |
|
34 |
2% |
2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
PS – cdH
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
26 |
6% |
97% |
|
27 |
15% |
90% |
|
28 |
16% |
75% |
|
29 |
33% |
59% |
Median |
30 |
16% |
26% |
|
31 |
9% |
11% |
|
32 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
33 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Dedicated
- Commissioner(s): RTBf–La Libre Belgique
- Fieldwork period: 16–20 March 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 679
- Simulations done: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 1.55%