Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 16–20 March 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
MR 26.7% 22.4% 20.4–24.5% 19.9–25.1% 19.4–25.7% 18.5–26.7%
PS 30.9% 21.4% 19.4–23.5% 18.9–24.1% 18.4–24.6% 17.5–25.7%
PTB 5.8% 20.0% 18.2–22.1% 17.6–22.7% 17.2–23.2% 16.3–24.2%
cdH 15.2% 11.9% 10.5–13.7% 10.0–14.2% 9.7–14.6% 9.0–15.5%
Ecolo 8.6% 11.3% 9.9–13.0% 9.5–13.5% 9.2–14.0% 8.5–14.8%
La Droite 1.4% 2.5% 1.9–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.6–4.0% 1.3–4.5%
DéFI 2.5% 2.4% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.8% 1.2–4.3%
Parti Populaire 4.9% 2.2% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.6% 1.1–4.1%
Wallonie d’Abord 0.4% 1.5% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.7% 0.6–3.1%
FW 0.1% 1.5% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.7% 0.6–3.1%
R.W.F. 0.5% 0.4% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.1–1.6%
PIRATE 0.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
MR 25 20 18–22 18–22 17–22 16–25
PS 30 19 18–20 17–21 16–21 16–23
PTB 2 18 16–19 16–20 15–20 14–21
cdH 13 10 9–12 8–12 7–12 6–13
Ecolo 4 8 6–11 6–11 6–12 6–13
La Droite 0 0 0 0 0 0
DéFI 0 0 0 0 0 0
Parti Populaire 1 0 0 0 0 0
Wallonie d’Abord 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
FW 0 0 0 0 0 0
R.W.F. 0 0 0 0 0 0
PIRATE 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

MR

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 1.3% 99.6%  
17 3% 98%  
18 6% 95%  
19 4% 89%  
20 59% 85% Median
21 4% 27%  
22 20% 23%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.3% 0.8%  
25 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

PS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 4% 99.7%  
17 5% 96%  
18 30% 91%  
19 40% 61% Median
20 14% 21%  
21 6% 7%  
22 0.4% 0.9%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0% Last Result

PTB

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 2% 99.7%  
15 3% 98%  
16 18% 95%  
17 18% 77%  
18 38% 59% Median
19 14% 22%  
20 7% 8%  
21 0.4% 0.8%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

cdH

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 2% 99.6%  
7 3% 98%  
8 5% 95%  
9 23% 90%  
10 49% 68% Median
11 7% 19%  
12 10% 12%  
13 1.4% 2% Last Result
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 12% 100%  
7 11% 88%  
8 36% 76% Median
9 17% 40%  
10 6% 23%  
11 15% 17%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

La Droite

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Wallonie d’Abord

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wallonie d’Abord page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

FW

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FW page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

R.W.F.

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the R.W.F. page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

PIRATE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PIRATE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
MR – PS – Ecolo 59 47 100% 45–49 45–52 44–52 43–53
PS – PTB – cdH 45 46 100% 44–48 43–49 42–49 41–50
PS – PTB – Ecolo 36 45 100% 43–47 42–48 41–48 41–49
MR – cdH – Ecolo 42 38 86% 37–40 36–41 36–42 35–43
MR – PS 55 39 85% 36–41 35–42 35–42 34–43
PS – cdH – Ecolo 47 37 24% 36–39 35–41 34–41 33–43
PS – PTB 32 37 13% 34–38 34–38 33–39 32–40
MR – cdH 38 30 0% 28–32 27–33 27–34 26–34
MR – Ecolo 29 28 0% 27–31 26–31 26–33 24–34
PS – cdH 43 29 0% 27–31 26–31 25–31 24–33

MR – PS – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.8% 99.9%  
44 3% 99.1%  
45 7% 96%  
46 6% 89%  
47 50% 83% Median
48 6% 32%  
49 19% 27%  
50 1.3% 8%  
51 1.5% 7%  
52 5% 5%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

PS – PTB – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.9%  
42 2% 98%  
43 0.9% 96%  
44 9% 95%  
45 12% 86% Last Result
46 24% 73%  
47 33% 49% Median
48 10% 16%  
49 5% 6%  
50 0.8% 1.1%  
51 0.3% 0.3%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

PS – PTB – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100% Majority
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 4% 99.5%  
42 3% 96%  
43 12% 93%  
44 17% 81%  
45 34% 64% Median
46 16% 30%  
47 7% 14%  
48 6% 7%  
49 1.0% 1.2%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

MR – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.7%  
36 6% 99.1%  
37 7% 94%  
38 45% 86% Median, Majority
39 24% 42%  
40 9% 18%  
41 5% 9%  
42 2% 3% Last Result
43 1.5% 2%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

MR – PS

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 1.5% 99.8%  
35 3% 98%  
36 6% 95%  
37 4% 89%  
38 21% 85% Majority
39 31% 64% Median
40 9% 33%  
41 15% 23%  
42 8% 8%  
43 0.5% 0.8%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

PS – cdH – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.4% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.6%  
34 3% 99.2%  
35 5% 96%  
36 24% 91%  
37 43% 67% Median
38 8% 24% Majority
39 8% 16%  
40 3% 8%  
41 4% 5%  
42 0.6% 1.2%  
43 0.5% 0.5%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

PS – PTB

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.7% Last Result
33 3% 98%  
34 6% 95%  
35 9% 90%  
36 24% 80%  
37 43% 57% Median
38 11% 13% Majority
39 2% 3%  
40 0.6% 0.9%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

MR – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.6%  
27 6% 98.7%  
28 9% 93%  
29 15% 84%  
30 37% 69% Median
31 14% 32%  
32 12% 18%  
33 2% 6%  
34 3% 3%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

MR – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 0.7% 99.5%  
26 8% 98.8%  
27 7% 90%  
28 34% 83% Median
29 26% 50% Last Result
30 11% 24%  
31 9% 13%  
32 1.1% 5%  
33 2% 3%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

PS – cdH

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.6%  
25 2% 99.0%  
26 6% 97%  
27 15% 90%  
28 16% 75%  
29 33% 59% Median
30 16% 26%  
31 9% 11%  
32 1.2% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.8%  
34 0.2% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Majority
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations