Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 11 September–5 October 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 21.5% | 19.9–23.1% | 19.5–23.6% | 19.1–24.0% | 18.4–24.8% |
| MR | 26.7% | 21.4% | 19.8–23.0% | 19.4–23.5% | 19.0–23.9% | 18.3–24.8% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 18.5% | 17.0–20.1% | 16.6–20.5% | 16.3–20.9% | 15.6–21.7% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 14.8% | 13.5–16.2% | 13.1–16.7% | 12.8–17.0% | 12.2–17.8% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 8.7% | 7.7–9.9% | 7.4–10.3% | 7.2–10.6% | 6.7–11.2% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 5.8% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.1–7.8% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| MR | 25 | 19 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 15–23 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 16 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–20 |
| PTB | 2 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 |
| cdH | 13 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| DéFI | 0 | 2 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 11% | 98.6% | |
| 18 | 33% | 87% | |
| 19 | 23% | 55% | Median |
| 20 | 13% | 32% | |
| 21 | 17% | 18% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 17 | 3% | 98% | |
| 18 | 9% | 95% | |
| 19 | 39% | 86% | Median |
| 20 | 28% | 47% | |
| 21 | 10% | 19% | |
| 22 | 7% | 8% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 6% | 100% | |
| 14 | 9% | 94% | |
| 15 | 14% | 85% | |
| 16 | 22% | 70% | Median |
| 17 | 36% | 48% | |
| 18 | 11% | 13% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 12% | 98% | |
| 11 | 34% | 86% | |
| 12 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 13 | 25% | 34% | |
| 14 | 6% | 9% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 29% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 57% | 70% | Median |
| 7 | 7% | 14% | |
| 8 | 4% | 7% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 17% | 97% | |
| 2 | 40% | 81% | Median |
| 3 | 7% | 40% | |
| 4 | 19% | 33% | |
| 5 | 14% | 14% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 54 | 100% | 53–57 | 52–57 | 51–58 | 50–58 |
| PS – Ecolo – PTB | 36 | 47 | 100% | 44–49 | 44–50 | 43–50 | 42–51 |
| MR – Ecolo – cdH | 42 | 42 | 99.3% | 40–43 | 39–44 | 39–45 | 37–45 |
| PS – Ecolo – cdH | 47 | 41 | 98% | 39–43 | 38–44 | 38–44 | 36–45 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 38 | 68% | 36–41 | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 |
| PS – PTB – cdH | 45 | 37 | 29% | 35–39 | 34–40 | 34–40 | 33–41 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 36 | 8% | 34–37 | 33–38 | 32–38 | 31–39 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 35 | 10% | 33–38 | 32–38 | 32–38 | 30–39 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–33 | 28–34 | 27–35 |
| Ecolo – PTB | 6 | 28 | 0% | 26–30 | 25–31 | 24–31 | 23–32 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 25 | 0% | 24–28 | 23–28 | 23–28 | 21–29 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 25 | 0% | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 22–29 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 52 | 6% | 96% | |
| 53 | 17% | 91% | |
| 54 | 24% | 74% | Median |
| 55 | 19% | 50% | |
| 56 | 17% | 31% | |
| 57 | 10% | 14% | |
| 58 | 3% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 44 | 8% | 97% | |
| 45 | 13% | 90% | |
| 46 | 17% | 77% | |
| 47 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 48 | 23% | 40% | |
| 49 | 12% | 17% | |
| 50 | 4% | 5% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
MR – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 1.5% | 99.3% | Majority |
| 39 | 8% | 98% | |
| 40 | 11% | 90% | |
| 41 | 20% | 79% | Median |
| 42 | 35% | 59% | Last Result |
| 43 | 14% | 24% | |
| 44 | 7% | 9% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 7% | 98% | Majority |
| 39 | 11% | 91% | |
| 40 | 18% | 79% | |
| 41 | 25% | 62% | Median |
| 42 | 16% | 37% | |
| 43 | 11% | 21% | |
| 44 | 8% | 10% | |
| 45 | 2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 10% | 97% | |
| 37 | 19% | 87% | |
| 38 | 21% | 68% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 18% | 47% | |
| 40 | 14% | 29% | |
| 41 | 11% | 14% | |
| 42 | 3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 5% | 98% | |
| 35 | 13% | 93% | |
| 36 | 29% | 80% | |
| 37 | 22% | 50% | Median |
| 38 | 17% | 29% | Majority |
| 39 | 7% | 12% | |
| 40 | 3% | 5% | |
| 41 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 33 | 6% | 97% | |
| 34 | 11% | 91% | |
| 35 | 20% | 81% | Median |
| 36 | 34% | 61% | |
| 37 | 19% | 27% | |
| 38 | 6% | 8% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 32 | 4% | 98% | |
| 33 | 14% | 94% | |
| 34 | 18% | 80% | Last Result |
| 35 | 24% | 62% | Median |
| 36 | 17% | 38% | |
| 37 | 11% | 22% | |
| 38 | 8% | 10% | Majority |
| 39 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 6% | 98.9% | |
| 29 | 13% | 93% | |
| 30 | 22% | 80% | |
| 31 | 30% | 58% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 28% | Last Result |
| 33 | 7% | 11% | |
| 34 | 3% | 5% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 25 | 5% | 97% | |
| 26 | 14% | 93% | |
| 27 | 20% | 79% | |
| 28 | 18% | 59% | Median |
| 29 | 20% | 41% | |
| 30 | 15% | 21% | |
| 31 | 4% | 6% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 4% | 98% | |
| 24 | 15% | 93% | |
| 25 | 33% | 78% | Median |
| 26 | 25% | 46% | |
| 27 | 10% | 20% | |
| 28 | 8% | 10% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 14% | 95% | |
| 24 | 25% | 82% | |
| 25 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 26 | 17% | 32% | |
| 27 | 12% | 15% | |
| 28 | 2% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique
- Fieldwork period: 11 September–5 October 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1076
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.93%