Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM, 27 November–4 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MR | 26.7% | 22.1% | 20.5–23.9% | 20.0–24.4% | 19.6–24.8% | 18.9–25.7% |
| PS | 30.9% | 19.5% | 18.0–21.2% | 17.5–21.7% | 17.2–22.1% | 16.5–22.9% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 18.9% | 17.4–20.6% | 17.0–21.1% | 16.6–21.5% | 15.9–22.3% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 8.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.8–10.2% | 6.3–10.8% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.8% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.8% | 2.9–6.2% |
| La Droite | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MR | 25 | 20 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| PS | 30 | 17 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 |
| PTB | 2 | 17 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 13–20 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| cdH | 13 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| DéFI | 0 | 5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 1–6 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| La Droite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 8% | 97% | |
| 20 | 40% | 89% | Median |
| 21 | 17% | 49% | |
| 22 | 18% | 33% | |
| 23 | 14% | 15% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 6% | 100% | |
| 16 | 17% | 94% | |
| 17 | 32% | 77% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 45% | |
| 19 | 26% | 31% | |
| 20 | 3% | 5% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 9% | 97% | |
| 16 | 33% | 88% | |
| 17 | 33% | 55% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 22% | |
| 19 | 5% | 8% | |
| 20 | 3% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 11% | 98% | |
| 8 | 19% | 87% | |
| 9 | 15% | 68% | |
| 10 | 41% | 53% | Median |
| 11 | 10% | 12% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 47% | 98.7% | |
| 6 | 39% | 51% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 12% | |
| 8 | 4% | 7% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 18% | 95% | |
| 3 | 5% | 78% | |
| 4 | 6% | 73% | |
| 5 | 66% | 67% | Median |
| 6 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 55% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 16% | 45% | Last Result |
| 2 | 25% | 29% | |
| 3 | 4% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
La Droite
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MR – PS – Ecolo | 59 | 47 | 100% | 46–50 | 45–51 | 44–51 | 43–52 |
| PS – PTB – Ecolo | 36 | 43 | 99.9% | 41–46 | 40–47 | 40–47 | 39–49 |
| PS – PTB – cdH | 45 | 40 | 94% | 38–42 | 37–43 | 37–44 | 36–45 |
| MR – PS | 55 | 38 | 65% | 36–41 | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 |
| MR – Ecolo – cdH | 42 | 36 | 16% | 33–38 | 33–39 | 33–39 | 32–40 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 34 | 2% | 32–37 | 32–37 | 31–37 | 30–39 |
| PS – Ecolo – cdH | 47 | 32 | 0.3% | 30–35 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 30 | 0% | 28–32 | 27–33 | 27–33 | 26–34 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 26 | 0% | 25–29 | 24–29 | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 27 | 0% | 24–29 | 24–30 | 23–30 | 23–31 |
| PTB – Ecolo | 6 | 26 | 0% | 24–28 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 22–31 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 23 | 0% | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 20–28 |
MR – PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 45 | 5% | 96% | |
| 46 | 16% | 91% | |
| 47 | 31% | 76% | Median |
| 48 | 14% | 45% | |
| 49 | 15% | 30% | |
| 50 | 10% | 15% | |
| 51 | 4% | 5% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 39 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 41 | 9% | 95% | |
| 42 | 15% | 86% | |
| 43 | 21% | 71% | |
| 44 | 23% | 50% | Median |
| 45 | 15% | 27% | |
| 46 | 7% | 12% | |
| 47 | 4% | 6% | |
| 48 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98% | |
| 38 | 18% | 94% | Majority |
| 39 | 17% | 76% | |
| 40 | 22% | 59% | Median |
| 41 | 15% | 37% | |
| 42 | 13% | 22% | |
| 43 | 6% | 9% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
MR – PS
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 9% | 96% | |
| 37 | 22% | 87% | Median |
| 38 | 16% | 65% | Majority |
| 39 | 22% | 49% | |
| 40 | 18% | 28% | |
| 41 | 7% | 10% | |
| 42 | 3% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 9% | 98.7% | |
| 34 | 12% | 90% | |
| 35 | 20% | 78% | |
| 36 | 28% | 58% | Median |
| 37 | 14% | 30% | |
| 38 | 10% | 16% | Majority |
| 39 | 4% | 6% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 32 | 12% | 97% | Last Result |
| 33 | 19% | 85% | |
| 34 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 35 | 21% | 44% | |
| 36 | 12% | 23% | |
| 37 | 9% | 12% | |
| 38 | 2% | 2% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 9% | 96% | |
| 31 | 12% | 87% | |
| 32 | 31% | 75% | |
| 33 | 16% | 44% | Median |
| 34 | 15% | 27% | |
| 35 | 8% | 12% | |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 4% | 98% | |
| 28 | 13% | 94% | |
| 29 | 13% | 81% | Last Result |
| 30 | 32% | 68% | Median |
| 31 | 14% | 36% | |
| 32 | 16% | 22% | |
| 33 | 5% | 6% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 4% | 98% | |
| 25 | 21% | 94% | |
| 26 | 29% | 73% | Median |
| 27 | 14% | 44% | |
| 28 | 17% | 30% | |
| 29 | 10% | 13% | |
| 30 | 2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 24 | 8% | 97% | |
| 25 | 10% | 89% | |
| 26 | 19% | 79% | |
| 27 | 30% | 60% | Median |
| 28 | 16% | 30% | |
| 29 | 9% | 14% | |
| 30 | 3% | 5% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PTB – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 7% | 98% | |
| 24 | 10% | 91% | |
| 25 | 20% | 81% | |
| 26 | 25% | 61% | |
| 27 | 19% | 37% | Median |
| 28 | 12% | 18% | |
| 29 | 4% | 6% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 7% | 97% | |
| 22 | 31% | 90% | |
| 23 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 24 | 21% | 45% | |
| 25 | 17% | 24% | |
| 26 | 5% | 7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM
- Fieldwork period: 27 November–4 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 999
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.49%