Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM, 27 February–6 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 23.9% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.7–26.2% | 21.3–26.7% | 20.6–27.6% |
| MR | 26.7% | 21.2% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.1–23.4% | 18.7–23.8% | 18.0–24.7% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 17.3% | 15.8–18.9% | 15.4–19.4% | 15.1–19.8% | 14.4–20.6% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.8–15.5% | 11.5–15.8% | 10.9–16.6% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 7.2% | 6.3–8.4% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.8–9.0% | 5.3–9.6% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.5–8.6% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.5–5.7% |
| La Droite | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 21 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–25 |
| MR | 25 | 19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 16–22 |
| PTB | 2 | 15 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–18 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| cdH | 13 | 5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| DéFI | 0 | 4 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–6 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| La Droite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 9% | 96% | |
| 20 | 14% | 87% | |
| 21 | 50% | 73% | Median |
| 22 | 11% | 23% | |
| 23 | 7% | 11% | |
| 24 | 3% | 5% | |
| 25 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 9% | 98% | |
| 18 | 18% | 89% | |
| 19 | 27% | 70% | Median |
| 20 | 24% | 43% | |
| 21 | 15% | 19% | |
| 22 | 4% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 4% | 98% | |
| 13 | 20% | 94% | |
| 14 | 17% | 75% | |
| 15 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 16 | 36% | 42% | |
| 17 | 4% | 6% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 9% | 96% | |
| 11 | 31% | 87% | |
| 12 | 35% | 57% | Median |
| 13 | 21% | 22% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 3% | 97% | |
| 4 | 17% | 94% | |
| 5 | 64% | 77% | Median |
| 6 | 13% | 13% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 27% | 90% | |
| 3 | 4% | 63% | |
| 4 | 34% | 59% | Median |
| 5 | 25% | 26% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 8% | 15% | Last Result |
| 2 | 6% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
La Droite
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 52 | 100% | 49–54 | 49–55 | 49–55 | 48–56 |
| PS – PTB – Ecolo | 36 | 47 | 100% | 45–50 | 44–50 | 44–51 | 43–52 |
| PS – PTB – cdH | 45 | 41 | 95% | 38–43 | 37–43 | 37–44 | 36–45 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 40 | 95% | 38–42 | 37–43 | 37–43 | 36–45 |
| PS – Ecolo – cdH | 47 | 38 | 51% | 35–39 | 35–40 | 34–41 | 33–42 |
| MR – Ecolo – cdH | 42 | 36 | 15% | 34–38 | 33–39 | 32–39 | 31–39 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 36 | 15% | 34–38 | 33–39 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 33 | 0.3% | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–34 | 28–34 | 27–35 |
| PTB – Ecolo | 6 | 27 | 0% | 24–28 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 22–30 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 26 | 0% | 24–27 | 23–28 | 23–29 | 22–30 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 24 | 0% | 22–26 | 21–26 | 21–27 | 20–28 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 9% | 98% | |
| 50 | 17% | 90% | |
| 51 | 17% | 72% | |
| 52 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 53 | 16% | 36% | |
| 54 | 12% | 20% | |
| 55 | 6% | 8% | |
| 56 | 2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 6% | 98.7% | |
| 45 | 10% | 93% | |
| 46 | 14% | 83% | |
| 47 | 22% | 69% | |
| 48 | 21% | 47% | Median |
| 49 | 13% | 26% | |
| 50 | 10% | 13% | |
| 51 | 2% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 7% | 95% | Majority |
| 39 | 16% | 88% | |
| 40 | 19% | 72% | |
| 41 | 22% | 53% | Median |
| 42 | 20% | 31% | |
| 43 | 7% | 11% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 38 | 12% | 95% | Majority |
| 39 | 20% | 83% | |
| 40 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 41 | 21% | 44% | |
| 42 | 14% | 24% | |
| 43 | 7% | 10% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 35 | 9% | 95% | |
| 36 | 18% | 87% | |
| 37 | 17% | 69% | |
| 38 | 28% | 51% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 13% | 23% | |
| 40 | 7% | 10% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 33 | 6% | 96% | |
| 34 | 16% | 90% | |
| 35 | 23% | 74% | |
| 36 | 20% | 52% | Median |
| 37 | 16% | 32% | |
| 38 | 8% | 15% | Majority |
| 39 | 7% | 7% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 33 | 5% | 96% | |
| 34 | 17% | 90% | |
| 35 | 16% | 73% | |
| 36 | 21% | 57% | Median |
| 37 | 21% | 36% | |
| 38 | 10% | 15% | Majority |
| 39 | 4% | 5% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 30 | 8% | 97% | |
| 31 | 15% | 89% | |
| 32 | 20% | 74% | |
| 33 | 25% | 54% | Median |
| 34 | 20% | 29% | Last Result |
| 35 | 5% | 9% | |
| 36 | 3% | 4% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 29 | 14% | 94% | Last Result |
| 30 | 23% | 80% | |
| 31 | 22% | 56% | Median |
| 32 | 19% | 35% | |
| 33 | 9% | 16% | |
| 34 | 6% | 6% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
PTB – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 24 | 9% | 95% | |
| 25 | 12% | 86% | |
| 26 | 22% | 73% | |
| 27 | 30% | 51% | Median |
| 28 | 11% | 21% | |
| 29 | 9% | 9% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 24 | 10% | 94% | |
| 25 | 22% | 84% | |
| 26 | 38% | 62% | Median |
| 27 | 14% | 24% | |
| 28 | 6% | 10% | |
| 29 | 3% | 4% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 4% | 98% | |
| 22 | 10% | 95% | |
| 23 | 22% | 85% | |
| 24 | 22% | 62% | Median |
| 25 | 18% | 40% | |
| 26 | 18% | 22% | |
| 27 | 3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM
- Fieldwork period: 27 February–6 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 983
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.88%