Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 26 February–17 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MR | 26.7% | 24.1% | 22.5–25.9% | 22.0–26.4% | 21.6–26.9% | 20.8–27.7% |
| PS | 30.9% | 23.2% | 21.5–24.9% | 21.0–25.4% | 20.7–25.8% | 19.9–26.7% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 17.5% | 16.1–19.2% | 15.7–19.6% | 15.3–20.0% | 14.6–20.8% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 11.1% | 10.0–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.8–13.9% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 10.6% | 9.5–12.0% | 9.2–12.4% | 8.9–12.7% | 8.4–13.4% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MR | 25 | 22 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 18–25 |
| PS | 30 | 21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 17–23 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 14 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| cdH | 13 | 8 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 6–12 |
| PTB | 2 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| DéFI | 0 | 2 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 6% | 96% | |
| 20 | 14% | 90% | |
| 21 | 20% | 76% | |
| 22 | 42% | 56% | Median |
| 23 | 9% | 15% | |
| 24 | 3% | 6% | |
| 25 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 11% | 98% | |
| 19 | 13% | 87% | |
| 20 | 14% | 73% | |
| 21 | 47% | 59% | Median |
| 22 | 9% | 12% | |
| 23 | 3% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 13 | 16% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 41% | 84% | Median |
| 15 | 18% | 42% | |
| 16 | 19% | 25% | |
| 17 | 5% | 6% | |
| 18 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 12% | 90% | |
| 8 | 41% | 78% | Median |
| 9 | 22% | 38% | |
| 10 | 9% | 16% | |
| 11 | 4% | 7% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 19% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 42% | 80% | Median |
| 9 | 34% | 38% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 24% | 88% | |
| 2 | 35% | 63% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 29% | |
| 4 | 16% | 22% | |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MR – PS – Ecolo | 59 | 57 | 100% | 54–58 | 53–59 | 53–60 | 51–60 |
| MR – Ecolo – cdH | 42 | 44 | 100% | 42–46 | 42–47 | 42–48 | 41–49 |
| PS – Ecolo – cdH | 47 | 43 | 100% | 41–45 | 40–46 | 40–47 | 39–48 |
| PS – Ecolo – PTB | 36 | 43 | 100% | 41–45 | 41–46 | 40–46 | 39–47 |
| MR – PS | 55 | 42 | 98.6% | 39–44 | 39–44 | 38–45 | 37–46 |
| PS – cdH – PTB | 45 | 37 | 36% | 34–39 | 34–40 | 33–41 | 32–42 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 36 | 20% | 34–38 | 33–39 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 35 | 4% | 33–37 | 32–37 | 32–38 | 31–39 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 30 | 0% | 28–31 | 28–32 | 27–33 | 26–34 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 29 | 0% | 26–31 | 26–32 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 29 | 0% | 26–30 | 26–31 | 26–31 | 25–32 |
| Ecolo – PTB | 6 | 23 | 0% | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–27 |
MR – PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 53 | 5% | 98% | |
| 54 | 8% | 93% | |
| 55 | 16% | 85% | |
| 56 | 19% | 69% | |
| 57 | 23% | 50% | Median |
| 58 | 17% | 27% | |
| 59 | 7% | 10% | Last Result |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
MR – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 42 | 9% | 98% | Last Result |
| 43 | 15% | 89% | |
| 44 | 35% | 73% | Median |
| 45 | 17% | 38% | |
| 46 | 12% | 22% | |
| 47 | 7% | 10% | |
| 48 | 2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.3% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 41 | 11% | 93% | |
| 42 | 13% | 82% | |
| 43 | 25% | 69% | Median |
| 44 | 21% | 44% | |
| 45 | 14% | 23% | |
| 46 | 5% | 9% | |
| 47 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 41 | 9% | 95% | |
| 42 | 20% | 86% | |
| 43 | 24% | 66% | Median |
| 44 | 27% | 43% | |
| 45 | 11% | 16% | |
| 46 | 4% | 5% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
MR – PS
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98.6% | Majority |
| 39 | 7% | 96% | |
| 40 | 11% | 89% | |
| 41 | 19% | 78% | |
| 42 | 20% | 58% | |
| 43 | 26% | 38% | Median |
| 44 | 8% | 13% | |
| 45 | 3% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – cdH – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 34 | 8% | 97% | |
| 35 | 13% | 89% | |
| 36 | 18% | 76% | |
| 37 | 22% | 58% | Median |
| 38 | 17% | 36% | Majority |
| 39 | 11% | 19% | |
| 40 | 5% | 8% | |
| 41 | 3% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 32 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 5% | 96% | |
| 34 | 11% | 91% | |
| 35 | 15% | 81% | |
| 36 | 28% | 65% | Median |
| 37 | 18% | 38% | |
| 38 | 12% | 20% | Majority |
| 39 | 6% | 8% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 33 | 11% | 94% | |
| 34 | 18% | 83% | Last Result |
| 35 | 32% | 65% | Median |
| 36 | 20% | 33% | |
| 37 | 8% | 12% | |
| 38 | 3% | 4% | Majority |
| 39 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 12% | 95% | |
| 29 | 24% | 83% | |
| 30 | 33% | 59% | Median |
| 31 | 17% | 26% | |
| 32 | 6% | 9% | |
| 33 | 2% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 8% | 97% | |
| 27 | 16% | 88% | |
| 28 | 18% | 72% | |
| 29 | 24% | 55% | Median |
| 30 | 17% | 31% | |
| 31 | 7% | 14% | |
| 32 | 4% | 7% | |
| 33 | 2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 9% | 98% | |
| 27 | 13% | 89% | |
| 28 | 18% | 76% | |
| 29 | 31% | 58% | Median |
| 30 | 22% | 27% | |
| 31 | 5% | 5% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 17% | 98% | |
| 22 | 23% | 81% | Median |
| 23 | 31% | 58% | |
| 24 | 15% | 27% | |
| 25 | 10% | 12% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique
- Fieldwork period: 26 February–17 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1015
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.76%