Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 29 May–6 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 23.4% | 21.7–25.2% | 21.3–25.7% | 20.9–26.1% | 20.1–27.0% |
| MR | 26.7% | 20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 13.2% | 11.9–14.7% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.2–15.5% | 10.7–16.2% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 12.8% | 11.5–14.3% | 11.2–14.7% | 10.9–15.0% | 10.3–15.7% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.8–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.2–8.1% |
| La Droite | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 21 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| MR | 25 | 19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 8–13 |
| PTB | 2 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–14 |
| cdH | 13 | 6 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–8 |
| DéFI | 0 | 2 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 0–5 |
| La Droite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 18 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 12% | 96% | |
| 20 | 13% | 84% | |
| 21 | 44% | 71% | Median |
| 22 | 15% | 27% | |
| 23 | 7% | 12% | |
| 24 | 4% | 5% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 16 | 6% | 95% | |
| 17 | 11% | 90% | |
| 18 | 19% | 79% | |
| 19 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 20 | 40% | 44% | |
| 21 | 4% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 1.5% | 99.1% | |
| 10 | 3% | 98% | |
| 11 | 43% | 95% | |
| 12 | 38% | 51% | Median |
| 13 | 13% | 14% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 36% | 96% | |
| 10 | 44% | 59% | Median |
| 11 | 11% | 16% | |
| 12 | 3% | 5% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 24% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 47% | 76% | Median |
| 7 | 9% | 29% | |
| 8 | 6% | 20% | |
| 9 | 8% | 15% | |
| 10 | 7% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 98% | |
| 4 | 20% | 88% | |
| 5 | 60% | 69% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 9% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 20% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 31% | 79% | Median |
| 3 | 15% | 48% | |
| 4 | 10% | 33% | |
| 5 | 22% | 23% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
La Droite
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 51 | 100% | 49–53 | 48–54 | 47–54 | 46–55 |
| PS – Ecolo – PTB | 36 | 42 | 99.7% | 40–45 | 40–45 | 39–46 | 38–47 |
| PS – Ecolo – cdH | 47 | 39 | 80% | 37–42 | 36–42 | 36–43 | 35–44 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 40 | 89% | 37–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 34–44 |
| PS – PTB – cdH | 45 | 37 | 42% | 35–40 | 34–41 | 34–41 | 33–42 |
| MR – Ecolo – cdH | 42 | 37 | 32% | 34–39 | 34–39 | 33–40 | 32–41 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 33 | 0.2% | 30–35 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–34 | 28–35 | 27–36 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 31 | 0% | 28–32 | 27–33 | 26–33 | 25–34 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 27 | 0% | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–31 | 23–32 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 25 | 0% | 23–27 | 22–28 | 22–28 | 21–29 |
| Ecolo – PTB | 6 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 17–25 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 48 | 4% | 95% | |
| 49 | 6% | 91% | |
| 50 | 16% | 85% | |
| 51 | 20% | 69% | |
| 52 | 20% | 49% | Median |
| 53 | 21% | 29% | |
| 54 | 7% | 8% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 39 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 40 | 9% | 96% | |
| 41 | 14% | 86% | |
| 42 | 32% | 73% | |
| 43 | 18% | 40% | Median |
| 44 | 12% | 23% | |
| 45 | 6% | 10% | |
| 46 | 3% | 4% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 7% | 98% | |
| 37 | 10% | 90% | |
| 38 | 25% | 80% | Majority |
| 39 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 40 | 13% | 37% | |
| 41 | 13% | 24% | |
| 42 | 7% | 11% | |
| 43 | 3% | 4% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 3% | 97% | |
| 37 | 5% | 94% | |
| 38 | 9% | 89% | Majority |
| 39 | 23% | 80% | |
| 40 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 41 | 27% | 39% | |
| 42 | 9% | 11% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 35 | 14% | 94% | |
| 36 | 20% | 80% | |
| 37 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 38 | 15% | 42% | Majority |
| 39 | 14% | 27% | |
| 40 | 6% | 12% | |
| 41 | 5% | 7% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 34 | 7% | 96% | |
| 35 | 11% | 89% | |
| 36 | 17% | 79% | |
| 37 | 29% | 61% | Median |
| 38 | 19% | 32% | Majority |
| 39 | 9% | 14% | |
| 40 | 4% | 5% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 30 | 9% | 97% | |
| 31 | 9% | 88% | |
| 32 | 28% | 79% | |
| 33 | 28% | 51% | Median |
| 34 | 13% | 24% | Last Result |
| 35 | 7% | 11% | |
| 36 | 3% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 29 | 13% | 93% | |
| 30 | 28% | 80% | |
| 31 | 25% | 53% | Median |
| 32 | 13% | 28% | Last Result |
| 33 | 9% | 15% | |
| 34 | 3% | 5% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 5% | 97% | |
| 28 | 8% | 93% | |
| 29 | 17% | 85% | Last Result |
| 30 | 17% | 68% | |
| 31 | 22% | 51% | Median |
| 32 | 23% | 29% | |
| 33 | 5% | 6% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 25 | 12% | 97% | |
| 26 | 18% | 85% | |
| 27 | 21% | 66% | Median |
| 28 | 18% | 45% | |
| 29 | 12% | 27% | |
| 30 | 9% | 15% | |
| 31 | 5% | 6% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 4% | 98% | |
| 23 | 10% | 94% | |
| 24 | 13% | 84% | |
| 25 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 26 | 30% | 46% | |
| 27 | 10% | 17% | |
| 28 | 5% | 7% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 20 | 11% | 95% | |
| 21 | 46% | 84% | |
| 22 | 24% | 38% | Median |
| 23 | 9% | 14% | |
| 24 | 4% | 5% | |
| 25 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 29 May–6 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.14%