Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 20–27 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 23.6% | 21.9–25.4% | 21.5–25.9% | 21.1–26.3% | 20.3–27.2% |
| MR | 26.7% | 20.6% | 19.0–22.3% | 18.6–22.8% | 18.2–23.2% | 17.5–24.1% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 13.1% | 11.8–14.6% | 11.4–15.0% | 11.1–15.3% | 10.6–16.1% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 10.9% | 9.7–12.3% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.1–13.0% | 8.6–13.7% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 10.1% | 9.0–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% | 8.4–12.1% | 7.9–12.8% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.2% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| La Droite | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 21 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| MR | 25 | 20 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| PTB | 2 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–14 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 8 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| cdH | 13 | 8 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| DéFI | 0 | 5 | 3–5 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 1–7 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| La Droite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 19 | 13% | 95% | |
| 20 | 18% | 82% | |
| 21 | 34% | 63% | Median |
| 22 | 19% | 29% | |
| 23 | 6% | 11% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 16 | 4% | 97% | |
| 17 | 11% | 92% | |
| 18 | 15% | 81% | |
| 19 | 15% | 66% | |
| 20 | 42% | 52% | Median |
| 21 | 8% | 10% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 30% | 96% | |
| 10 | 46% | 66% | Median |
| 11 | 12% | 20% | |
| 12 | 5% | 8% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 13% | 100% | |
| 7 | 16% | 87% | |
| 8 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 48% | |
| 10 | 8% | 31% | |
| 11 | 22% | 23% | |
| 12 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 26% | 98% | |
| 7 | 13% | 71% | |
| 8 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 9 | 13% | 47% | |
| 10 | 32% | 34% | |
| 11 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 8% | 98% | |
| 3 | 7% | 90% | |
| 4 | 8% | 83% | |
| 5 | 69% | 74% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 6% | |
| 7 | 2% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.6% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 2 | 10% | 99.3% | |
| 3 | 20% | 89% | |
| 4 | 32% | 69% | Median |
| 5 | 35% | 37% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
La Droite
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 48 | 100% | 46–51 | 45–52 | 45–53 | 43–53 |
| PS – PTB – Ecolo | 36 | 39 | 83% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–43 | 35–45 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 40 | 88% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–43 | 35–45 |
| PS – PTB – cdH | 45 | 39 | 74% | 36–42 | 35–42 | 35–43 | 34–44 |
| PS – Ecolo – cdH | 47 | 37 | 50% | 35–40 | 35–41 | 34–42 | 33–43 |
| MR – Ecolo – cdH | 42 | 36 | 13% | 33–38 | 33–38 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 31 | 0.1% | 29–33 | 28–34 | 28–34 | 27–36 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 29 | 0% | 27–32 | 26–33 | 26–33 | 25–34 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 29 | 0% | 26–31 | 25–32 | 25–33 | 24–34 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 27 | 0% | 25–31 | 24–31 | 23–32 | 22–32 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 27 | 0% | 25–30 | 24–30 | 23–31 | 22–31 |
| PTB – Ecolo | 6 | 18 | 0% | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–22 | 14–24 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 45 | 5% | 98% | |
| 46 | 10% | 93% | |
| 47 | 17% | 83% | |
| 48 | 17% | 65% | |
| 49 | 17% | 48% | Median |
| 50 | 13% | 31% | |
| 51 | 12% | 18% | |
| 52 | 4% | 7% | |
| 53 | 2% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 37 | 10% | 93% | |
| 38 | 19% | 83% | Majority |
| 39 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 40 | 17% | 46% | |
| 41 | 13% | 29% | |
| 42 | 9% | 17% | |
| 43 | 6% | 7% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 7% | 95% | |
| 38 | 9% | 88% | Majority |
| 39 | 17% | 78% | |
| 40 | 25% | 62% | |
| 41 | 18% | 37% | Median |
| 42 | 14% | 19% | |
| 43 | 3% | 5% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 6% | 98% | |
| 36 | 7% | 92% | |
| 37 | 11% | 85% | |
| 38 | 15% | 74% | Majority |
| 39 | 17% | 59% | Median |
| 40 | 19% | 42% | |
| 41 | 13% | 23% | |
| 42 | 6% | 10% | |
| 43 | 2% | 4% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 35 | 10% | 96% | |
| 36 | 14% | 85% | |
| 37 | 22% | 72% | Median |
| 38 | 22% | 50% | Majority |
| 39 | 12% | 28% | |
| 40 | 7% | 15% | |
| 41 | 5% | 8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 33 | 7% | 95% | |
| 34 | 15% | 89% | |
| 35 | 16% | 74% | |
| 36 | 19% | 57% | Median |
| 37 | 25% | 38% | |
| 38 | 8% | 13% | Majority |
| 39 | 4% | 5% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 29 | 16% | 94% | |
| 30 | 23% | 78% | |
| 31 | 25% | 55% | Median |
| 32 | 15% | 30% | Last Result |
| 33 | 9% | 15% | |
| 34 | 4% | 6% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 12% | 94% | |
| 28 | 17% | 83% | |
| 29 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 30 | 16% | 49% | |
| 31 | 17% | 33% | |
| 32 | 10% | 16% | |
| 33 | 4% | 6% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98% | |
| 26 | 8% | 94% | |
| 27 | 10% | 86% | |
| 28 | 17% | 77% | |
| 29 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 30 | 20% | 44% | |
| 31 | 16% | 24% | |
| 32 | 5% | 8% | |
| 33 | 2% | 3% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 24 | 4% | 97% | |
| 25 | 6% | 93% | |
| 26 | 16% | 87% | |
| 27 | 21% | 70% | |
| 28 | 20% | 50% | Median |
| 29 | 12% | 30% | Last Result |
| 30 | 7% | 18% | |
| 31 | 9% | 12% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 24 | 6% | 97% | |
| 25 | 10% | 91% | |
| 26 | 23% | 82% | |
| 27 | 20% | 59% | |
| 28 | 14% | 39% | Median |
| 29 | 11% | 25% | |
| 30 | 10% | 14% | |
| 31 | 3% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
PTB – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 16 | 14% | 97% | |
| 17 | 18% | 84% | |
| 18 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 19 | 16% | 49% | |
| 20 | 14% | 33% | |
| 21 | 13% | 19% | |
| 22 | 4% | 6% | |
| 23 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 20–27 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.02%