Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 27 November–3 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 24.9% | 23.2–26.7% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.3–27.7% | 21.6–28.6% |
| MR | 26.7% | 20.7% | 19.2–22.5% | 18.7–22.9% | 18.3–23.4% | 17.6–24.2% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 13.5% | 12.2–14.9% | 11.8–15.3% | 11.5–15.7% | 10.9–16.4% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 13.1% | 11.8–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.3% | 10.5–16.0% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 11.3% | 10.1–12.7% | 9.7–13.0% | 9.4–13.4% | 8.9–14.1% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.5–8.4% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| La Droite | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 21 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 19–26 |
| MR | 25 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–22 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| PTB | 2 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| cdH | 13 | 10 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 | 6–12 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 0–5 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| La Droite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 5% | 97% | |
| 21 | 48% | 93% | Median |
| 22 | 18% | 45% | |
| 23 | 14% | 27% | |
| 24 | 10% | 14% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 5% | 97% | |
| 17 | 23% | 92% | |
| 18 | 18% | 68% | Median |
| 19 | 24% | 50% | |
| 20 | 17% | 26% | |
| 21 | 7% | 9% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 10 | 8% | 97% | |
| 11 | 33% | 90% | |
| 12 | 37% | 57% | Median |
| 13 | 20% | 20% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 31% | 96% | |
| 10 | 41% | 65% | Median |
| 11 | 18% | 24% | |
| 12 | 3% | 6% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 5% | 96% | |
| 8 | 7% | 92% | |
| 9 | 27% | 85% | |
| 10 | 45% | 58% | Median |
| 11 | 10% | 13% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 4% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 2 | 20% | 95% | |
| 3 | 33% | 75% | Median |
| 4 | 34% | 42% | |
| 5 | 8% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 44% | 48% | |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
La Droite
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 52 | 100% | 50–54 | 49–55 | 48–56 | 47–57 |
| PS – Ecolo – PTB | 36 | 43 | 100% | 42–45 | 41–46 | 41–47 | 39–48 |
| PS – Ecolo – cdH | 47 | 43 | 99.9% | 41–45 | 40–46 | 39–46 | 38–47 |
| PS – PTB – cdH | 45 | 41 | 98% | 39–43 | 38–44 | 38–45 | 37–46 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 40 | 96% | 38–43 | 38–43 | 37–44 | 36–45 |
| MR – Ecolo – cdH | 42 | 40 | 91% | 38–41 | 37–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 33 | 0.8% | 32–35 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 31 | 0.1% | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–35 | 29–37 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 31 | 0% | 29–34 | 29–34 | 28–35 | 27–36 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 30 | 0% | 28–32 | 27–33 | 27–33 | 26–34 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 28 | 0% | 26–30 | 26–30 | 25–31 | 24–31 |
| Ecolo – PTB | 6 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 20–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 49 | 7% | 97% | |
| 50 | 10% | 91% | |
| 51 | 23% | 81% | Median |
| 52 | 24% | 58% | |
| 53 | 17% | 34% | |
| 54 | 10% | 17% | |
| 55 | 4% | 7% | |
| 56 | 2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 41 | 5% | 98% | |
| 42 | 24% | 92% | |
| 43 | 25% | 69% | Median |
| 44 | 21% | 44% | |
| 45 | 14% | 23% | |
| 46 | 6% | 9% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 40 | 7% | 97% | |
| 41 | 10% | 90% | |
| 42 | 21% | 80% | |
| 43 | 23% | 59% | Median |
| 44 | 17% | 36% | |
| 45 | 12% | 20% | |
| 46 | 5% | 7% | |
| 47 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 4% | 98% | Majority |
| 39 | 7% | 94% | |
| 40 | 23% | 87% | |
| 41 | 22% | 64% | Median |
| 42 | 20% | 42% | |
| 43 | 12% | 22% | |
| 44 | 6% | 10% | |
| 45 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 38 | 11% | 96% | Majority |
| 39 | 19% | 85% | Median |
| 40 | 23% | 65% | |
| 41 | 21% | 42% | |
| 42 | 11% | 21% | |
| 43 | 7% | 11% | |
| 44 | 2% | 4% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 37 | 6% | 97% | |
| 38 | 16% | 91% | Majority |
| 39 | 19% | 74% | |
| 40 | 29% | 55% | Median |
| 41 | 19% | 27% | |
| 42 | 6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 6% | 97% | |
| 32 | 19% | 91% | |
| 33 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 34 | 23% | 47% | Last Result |
| 35 | 15% | 24% | |
| 36 | 6% | 9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 16% | 97% | |
| 31 | 31% | 81% | Median |
| 32 | 22% | 50% | Last Result |
| 33 | 14% | 27% | |
| 34 | 8% | 13% | |
| 35 | 3% | 5% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 3% | 98% | |
| 29 | 8% | 95% | |
| 30 | 18% | 88% | |
| 31 | 30% | 70% | Median |
| 32 | 15% | 39% | |
| 33 | 14% | 24% | |
| 34 | 8% | 10% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 4% | 98% | |
| 28 | 13% | 94% | |
| 29 | 15% | 81% | Last Result |
| 30 | 24% | 65% | Median |
| 31 | 21% | 41% | |
| 32 | 13% | 20% | |
| 33 | 5% | 6% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 26 | 9% | 95% | |
| 27 | 29% | 86% | |
| 28 | 22% | 57% | Median |
| 29 | 22% | 36% | |
| 30 | 10% | 13% | |
| 31 | 3% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 20 | 11% | 96% | |
| 21 | 35% | 85% | |
| 22 | 28% | 50% | Median |
| 23 | 17% | 22% | |
| 24 | 4% | 5% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 27 November–3 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1003
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.12%