Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT, 19 November–8 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 25.4% | 23.7–27.2% | 23.2–27.7% | 22.8–28.2% | 22.0–29.1% |
| MR | 26.7% | 19.9% | 18.3–21.6% | 17.9–22.0% | 17.5–22.5% | 16.8–23.3% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 19.7% | 18.2–21.4% | 17.7–21.8% | 17.3–22.3% | 16.6–23.1% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.2% | 11.4–17.0% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 10.4% | 9.3–11.8% | 9.0–12.1% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.2–13.1% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 21 | 20–24 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–27 |
| MR | 25 | 16 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–20 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 17 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 13–20 |
| PTB | 2 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–15 |
| cdH | 13 | 8 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 5% | 98% | |
| 20 | 8% | 93% | |
| 21 | 40% | 85% | Median |
| 22 | 16% | 45% | |
| 23 | 19% | 29% | |
| 24 | 6% | 10% | |
| 25 | 3% | 5% | |
| 26 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 30% | 97% | |
| 16 | 17% | 67% | Median |
| 17 | 12% | 50% | |
| 18 | 15% | 37% | |
| 19 | 9% | 22% | |
| 20 | 13% | 13% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 100% | |
| 14 | 4% | 96% | |
| 15 | 6% | 93% | |
| 16 | 16% | 87% | |
| 17 | 54% | 71% | Median |
| 18 | 9% | 17% | |
| 19 | 5% | 8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 26% | 99.1% | |
| 10 | 32% | 73% | Median |
| 11 | 33% | 41% | |
| 12 | 5% | 8% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 30% | 96% | |
| 7 | 8% | 66% | |
| 8 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 9 | 11% | 47% | |
| 10 | 36% | 36% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 31% | 100% | |
| 1 | 18% | 69% | Last Result |
| 2 | 37% | 51% | Median |
| 3 | 12% | 14% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 55 | 100% | 52–58 | 52–59 | 52–59 | 51–60 |
| PS – Ecolo – PTB | 36 | 49 | 100% | 46–51 | 46–52 | 45–53 | 44–54 |
| PS – Ecolo – cdH | 47 | 47 | 100% | 44–49 | 43–50 | 42–50 | 41–50 |
| MR – Ecolo – cdH | 42 | 42 | 98.8% | 39–44 | 39–44 | 38–45 | 37–45 |
| PS – PTB – cdH | 45 | 40 | 87% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 38 | 70% | 36–41 | 35–42 | 35–43 | 34–44 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 39 | 64% | 36–41 | 35–42 | 35–42 | 34–43 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 33 | 2% | 31–37 | 31–37 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 32 | 0.2% | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 30 | 0% | 27–32 | 26–33 | 26–33 | 25–34 |
| Ecolo – PTB | 6 | 27 | 0% | 25–29 | 24–30 | 23–30 | 23–32 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 25 | 0% | 22–27 | 22–28 | 21–28 | 20–29 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 9% | 98% | |
| 53 | 15% | 90% | |
| 54 | 15% | 75% | Median |
| 55 | 14% | 59% | |
| 56 | 14% | 45% | |
| 57 | 11% | 32% | |
| 58 | 12% | 20% | |
| 59 | 7% | 9% | Last Result |
| 60 | 2% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 46 | 6% | 95% | |
| 47 | 16% | 89% | |
| 48 | 20% | 73% | Median |
| 49 | 23% | 53% | |
| 50 | 15% | 30% | |
| 51 | 7% | 15% | |
| 52 | 4% | 8% | |
| 53 | 3% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 43 | 5% | 97% | |
| 44 | 10% | 92% | |
| 45 | 13% | 82% | |
| 46 | 17% | 69% | Median |
| 47 | 18% | 52% | Last Result |
| 48 | 18% | 34% | |
| 49 | 11% | 16% | |
| 50 | 5% | 5% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
MR – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.8% | Majority |
| 39 | 7% | 96% | |
| 40 | 14% | 90% | |
| 41 | 18% | 75% | Median |
| 42 | 21% | 57% | Last Result |
| 43 | 26% | 36% | |
| 44 | 7% | 10% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 7% | 94% | |
| 38 | 14% | 87% | Majority |
| 39 | 14% | 73% | Median |
| 40 | 14% | 59% | |
| 41 | 18% | 45% | |
| 42 | 16% | 26% | |
| 43 | 6% | 10% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 35 | 4% | 98% | |
| 36 | 8% | 94% | |
| 37 | 16% | 86% | |
| 38 | 27% | 70% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 16% | 43% | |
| 40 | 14% | 28% | |
| 41 | 7% | 14% | |
| 42 | 4% | 6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 36 | 17% | 94% | |
| 37 | 13% | 77% | Median |
| 38 | 13% | 64% | Majority |
| 39 | 15% | 51% | |
| 40 | 13% | 36% | |
| 41 | 14% | 23% | |
| 42 | 7% | 9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 30 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 9% | 95% | |
| 32 | 19% | 86% | |
| 33 | 19% | 67% | Median |
| 34 | 15% | 48% | |
| 35 | 14% | 34% | |
| 36 | 9% | 20% | |
| 37 | 9% | 10% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 2% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 30 | 17% | 95% | |
| 31 | 17% | 79% | Median |
| 32 | 30% | 62% | Last Result |
| 33 | 15% | 32% | |
| 34 | 9% | 16% | |
| 35 | 4% | 7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 27 | 9% | 94% | |
| 28 | 12% | 86% | |
| 29 | 19% | 73% | Median |
| 30 | 14% | 54% | |
| 31 | 23% | 40% | |
| 32 | 9% | 17% | |
| 33 | 6% | 8% | |
| 34 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 3% | 97% | |
| 25 | 6% | 94% | |
| 26 | 21% | 87% | |
| 27 | 32% | 67% | Median |
| 28 | 21% | 34% | |
| 29 | 8% | 14% | |
| 30 | 4% | 6% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 22 | 8% | 97% | |
| 23 | 11% | 88% | |
| 24 | 11% | 77% | Median |
| 25 | 28% | 66% | |
| 26 | 23% | 39% | |
| 27 | 8% | 16% | |
| 28 | 6% | 7% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT
- Fieldwork period: 19 November–8 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1016
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.81%