Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 5–11 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 24.3% | 22.6–26.1% | 22.2–26.6% | 21.7–27.1% | 21.0–28.0% |
| MR | 26.7% | 19.4% | 17.9–21.1% | 17.4–21.6% | 17.1–22.0% | 16.3–22.8% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 16.8% | 15.3–18.4% | 14.9–18.8% | 14.6–19.2% | 13.9–20.0% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 10.8% | 9.6–12.1% | 9.3–12.5% | 9.0–12.8% | 8.4–13.5% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 10.7% | 9.5–12.0% | 9.2–12.4% | 8.9–12.7% | 8.4–13.4% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.8% | 2.9–6.3% |
| La Droite | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 22 | 21–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 19–27 |
| MR | 25 | 18 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 14 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| cdH | 13 | 10 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| PTB | 2 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 2 | 1–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| DéFI | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
| La Droite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 3% | 97% | |
| 21 | 38% | 95% | |
| 22 | 20% | 57% | Median |
| 23 | 20% | 37% | |
| 24 | 10% | 17% | |
| 25 | 4% | 7% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 12% | 99.2% | |
| 16 | 13% | 88% | |
| 17 | 21% | 75% | |
| 18 | 23% | 54% | Median |
| 19 | 13% | 31% | |
| 20 | 14% | 18% | |
| 21 | 4% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 26% | 98.7% | |
| 14 | 30% | 72% | Median |
| 15 | 17% | 43% | |
| 16 | 10% | 26% | |
| 17 | 14% | 16% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 6% | 91% | |
| 8 | 7% | 84% | |
| 9 | 20% | 78% | |
| 10 | 47% | 57% | Median |
| 11 | 8% | 10% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 15% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 39% | 85% | Median |
| 9 | 40% | 46% | |
| 10 | 5% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 13% | 93% | Last Result |
| 2 | 30% | 80% | Median |
| 3 | 34% | 49% | |
| 4 | 13% | 15% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 43% | 51% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 9% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
La Droite
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 54 | 100% | 52–57 | 51–58 | 51–58 | 50–59 |
| PS – Ecolo – cdH | 47 | 46 | 100% | 43–49 | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 |
| PS – Ecolo – PTB | 36 | 45 | 100% | 43–47 | 42–48 | 42–49 | 41–51 |
| MR – Ecolo – cdH | 42 | 42 | 98.7% | 40–43 | 39–44 | 38–45 | 37–45 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 40 | 84% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–43 | 35–45 |
| PS – cdH – PTB | 45 | 40 | 89% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–43 | 34–45 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 37 | 32% | 35–39 | 34–40 | 34–40 | 33–42 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 32 | 0.2% | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 31 | 0% | 29–34 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 27–36 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 30 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–33 | 28–34 | 27–35 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 27 | 0% | 25–29 | 24–29 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
| Ecolo – PTB | 6 | 23 | 0% | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–26 | 20–27 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 52 | 12% | 94% | |
| 53 | 16% | 83% | |
| 54 | 20% | 67% | Median |
| 55 | 20% | 47% | |
| 56 | 14% | 27% | |
| 57 | 6% | 13% | |
| 58 | 5% | 7% | |
| 59 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 43 | 7% | 97% | |
| 44 | 13% | 90% | |
| 45 | 23% | 77% | |
| 46 | 16% | 55% | Median |
| 47 | 17% | 39% | Last Result |
| 48 | 11% | 21% | |
| 49 | 6% | 10% | |
| 50 | 3% | 4% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 43 | 11% | 94% | |
| 44 | 26% | 83% | Median |
| 45 | 18% | 57% | |
| 46 | 15% | 39% | |
| 47 | 17% | 24% | |
| 48 | 4% | 7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
MR – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.7% | Majority |
| 39 | 6% | 96% | |
| 40 | 15% | 91% | |
| 41 | 25% | 76% | |
| 42 | 23% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 43 | 19% | 27% | |
| 44 | 5% | 8% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 37 | 10% | 95% | |
| 38 | 13% | 84% | Majority |
| 39 | 15% | 72% | |
| 40 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 41 | 16% | 39% | |
| 42 | 15% | 24% | |
| 43 | 6% | 8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – cdH – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 5% | 94% | |
| 38 | 13% | 89% | Majority |
| 39 | 20% | 76% | |
| 40 | 23% | 56% | Median |
| 41 | 15% | 33% | |
| 42 | 11% | 17% | |
| 43 | 5% | 7% | |
| 44 | 2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 8% | 98% | Last Result |
| 35 | 17% | 90% | |
| 36 | 21% | 73% | Median |
| 37 | 20% | 52% | |
| 38 | 16% | 32% | Majority |
| 39 | 9% | 16% | |
| 40 | 4% | 7% | |
| 41 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 2% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 30 | 16% | 97% | |
| 31 | 18% | 81% | |
| 32 | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 33 | 17% | 43% | |
| 34 | 15% | 26% | |
| 35 | 6% | 12% | |
| 36 | 4% | 6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 4% | 96% | |
| 29 | 8% | 92% | |
| 30 | 12% | 84% | |
| 31 | 30% | 72% | |
| 32 | 12% | 42% | Median |
| 33 | 17% | 30% | |
| 34 | 9% | 13% | |
| 35 | 3% | 4% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 7% | 98.7% | |
| 29 | 15% | 92% | |
| 30 | 35% | 77% | Median |
| 31 | 18% | 42% | |
| 32 | 14% | 24% | Last Result |
| 33 | 6% | 10% | |
| 34 | 3% | 4% | |
| 35 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 24 | 4% | 97% | |
| 25 | 13% | 93% | |
| 26 | 19% | 80% | |
| 27 | 25% | 62% | |
| 28 | 20% | 37% | Median |
| 29 | 12% | 17% | |
| 30 | 4% | 5% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 18% | 97% | |
| 22 | 25% | 80% | Median |
| 23 | 20% | 55% | |
| 24 | 16% | 35% | |
| 25 | 10% | 19% | |
| 26 | 7% | 8% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 5–11 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 995
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.01%