Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT, 25 March–14 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 24.7% | 23.0–26.5% | 22.5–27.0% | 22.1–27.5% | 21.3–28.3% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 22.0% | 20.4–23.8% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.6–24.7% | 18.8–25.5% |
| MR | 26.7% | 18.3% | 16.8–20.0% | 16.4–20.4% | 16.0–20.9% | 15.4–21.7% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 14.8% | 13.5–16.4% | 13.1–16.8% | 12.8–17.2% | 12.1–17.9% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 9.3% | 8.2–10.5% | 7.9–10.9% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.9% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.7% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 21 | 20–23 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 20 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| MR | 25 | 15 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 12–20 |
| PTB | 2 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–15 | 9–15 | 9–15 |
| cdH | 13 | 6 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 98% | |
| 20 | 8% | 94% | |
| 21 | 38% | 87% | Median |
| 22 | 23% | 49% | |
| 23 | 21% | 27% | |
| 24 | 3% | 6% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 12% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 12% | 88% | |
| 19 | 21% | 76% | |
| 20 | 35% | 55% | Median |
| 21 | 11% | 20% | |
| 22 | 6% | 9% | |
| 23 | 3% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 11% | 98% | |
| 15 | 54% | 87% | Median |
| 16 | 14% | 33% | |
| 17 | 7% | 18% | |
| 18 | 5% | 11% | |
| 19 | 3% | 6% | |
| 20 | 3% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 16% | 96% | |
| 11 | 40% | 81% | Median |
| 12 | 18% | 41% | |
| 13 | 14% | 23% | |
| 14 | 4% | 10% | |
| 15 | 5% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 22% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 51% | 78% | Median |
| 7 | 7% | 27% | |
| 8 | 6% | 20% | |
| 9 | 8% | 13% | |
| 10 | 5% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 22% | 23% | |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – Ecolo – MR | 59 | 57 | 100% | 54–59 | 54–59 | 53–60 | 52–60 |
| PS – Ecolo – PTB | 36 | 53 | 100% | 50–55 | 49–55 | 49–56 | 48–56 |
| PS – Ecolo – cdH | 47 | 48 | 100% | 45–50 | 44–50 | 44–50 | 43–51 |
| Ecolo – MR – cdH | 42 | 42 | 98.9% | 39–44 | 39–44 | 38–45 | 37–46 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 41 | 98% | 39–43 | 38–44 | 38–45 | 36–45 |
| PS – PTB – cdH | 45 | 40 | 89% | 37–42 | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–44 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 37 | 40% | 35–40 | 35–40 | 34–41 | 33–42 |
| Ecolo – MR | 29 | 35 | 8% | 33–37 | 32–38 | 32–38 | 31–39 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 33 | 0.9% | 31–35 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Ecolo – PTB | 6 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–34 | 28–34 | 27–35 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 28 | 0% | 26–30 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 22 | 0% | 20–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–27 |
PS – Ecolo – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 54 | 10% | 97% | |
| 55 | 11% | 87% | |
| 56 | 17% | 76% | Median |
| 57 | 25% | 59% | |
| 58 | 19% | 34% | |
| 59 | 11% | 15% | Last Result |
| 60 | 4% | 5% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 50 | 8% | 94% | |
| 51 | 11% | 86% | |
| 52 | 12% | 75% | Median |
| 53 | 23% | 62% | |
| 54 | 25% | 39% | |
| 55 | 11% | 14% | |
| 56 | 3% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 45 | 7% | 94% | |
| 46 | 12% | 87% | |
| 47 | 18% | 74% | Last Result, Median |
| 48 | 23% | 56% | |
| 49 | 19% | 33% | |
| 50 | 11% | 14% | |
| 51 | 2% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo – MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.9% | Majority |
| 39 | 9% | 97% | |
| 40 | 16% | 87% | |
| 41 | 20% | 71% | Median |
| 42 | 21% | 51% | Last Result |
| 43 | 19% | 30% | |
| 44 | 8% | 11% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 38 | 7% | 98% | Majority |
| 39 | 11% | 91% | |
| 40 | 12% | 80% | |
| 41 | 22% | 68% | Median |
| 42 | 24% | 46% | |
| 43 | 13% | 22% | |
| 44 | 6% | 9% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 8% | 97% | |
| 38 | 15% | 89% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 19% | 73% | |
| 40 | 22% | 54% | |
| 41 | 19% | 32% | |
| 42 | 9% | 14% | |
| 43 | 4% | 5% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 35 | 7% | 96% | |
| 36 | 29% | 88% | Median |
| 37 | 19% | 59% | |
| 38 | 19% | 40% | Majority |
| 39 | 9% | 21% | |
| 40 | 7% | 12% | |
| 41 | 4% | 5% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ecolo – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 33 | 11% | 94% | |
| 34 | 21% | 83% | |
| 35 | 24% | 62% | Median |
| 36 | 17% | 38% | |
| 37 | 13% | 21% | |
| 38 | 6% | 8% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 31 | 9% | 96% | |
| 32 | 25% | 87% | Last Result, Median |
| 33 | 20% | 62% | |
| 34 | 19% | 42% | |
| 35 | 14% | 23% | |
| 36 | 7% | 9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 7% | 98% | |
| 29 | 8% | 91% | |
| 30 | 20% | 82% | |
| 31 | 22% | 62% | Median |
| 32 | 16% | 40% | |
| 33 | 15% | 24% | |
| 34 | 7% | 9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 16% | 97% | |
| 27 | 19% | 81% | Median |
| 28 | 23% | 62% | |
| 29 | 20% | 38% | |
| 30 | 10% | 19% | |
| 31 | 5% | 8% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 19 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 14% | 96% | |
| 21 | 30% | 82% | Median |
| 22 | 20% | 52% | |
| 23 | 10% | 32% | |
| 24 | 10% | 22% | |
| 25 | 8% | 12% | |
| 26 | 4% | 4% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT
- Fieldwork period: 25 March–14 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1004
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.43%