Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 6–14 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30.9% | 28.5% | 26.7–30.4% | 26.2–30.9% | 25.8–31.4% | 25.0–32.3% |
| MR | 26.7% | 22.7% | 21.1–24.5% | 20.6–25.0% | 20.2–25.4% | 19.4–26.3% |
| Ecolo | 8.6% | 19.1% | 17.6–20.8% | 17.1–21.2% | 16.8–21.7% | 16.1–22.5% |
| cdH | 15.2% | 9.7% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.3–11.4% | 8.0–11.7% | 7.5–12.3% |
| PTB | 5.8% | 9.2% | 8.1–10.5% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.8% |
| DéFI | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| Parti Populaire | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| La Droite | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | 30 | 25 | 23–28 | 23–28 | 22–29 | 21–29 |
| MR | 25 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 16–23 |
| Ecolo | 4 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| cdH | 13 | 6 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| PTB | 2 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Parti Populaire | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| La Droite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
PS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 23 | 16% | 96% | |
| 24 | 20% | 81% | |
| 25 | 31% | 61% | Median |
| 26 | 11% | 30% | |
| 27 | 8% | 18% | |
| 28 | 7% | 10% | |
| 29 | 3% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
MR
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MR page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 4% | 98% | |
| 18 | 6% | 95% | |
| 19 | 20% | 89% | |
| 20 | 20% | 68% | Median |
| 21 | 28% | 48% | |
| 22 | 19% | 20% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 17% | 97% | |
| 15 | 9% | 80% | |
| 16 | 24% | 71% | Median |
| 17 | 27% | 47% | |
| 18 | 19% | 21% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
cdH
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the cdH page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 8% | 100% | |
| 6 | 57% | 92% | Median |
| 7 | 18% | 35% | |
| 8 | 8% | 17% | |
| 9 | 6% | 8% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PTB
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PTB page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 98% | |
| 6 | 14% | 95% | |
| 7 | 65% | 81% | Median |
| 8 | 13% | 16% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 10% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
La Droite
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS – MR – Ecolo | 59 | 62 | 100% | 60–63 | 59–63 | 58–64 | 57–65 |
| PS – Ecolo – PTB | 36 | 48 | 100% | 46–50 | 46–51 | 45–51 | 44–53 |
| PS – Ecolo – cdH | 47 | 47 | 100% | 46–50 | 45–51 | 45–51 | 44–52 |
| PS – MR | 55 | 45 | 100% | 43–47 | 43–48 | 42–49 | 40–49 |
| MR – Ecolo – cdH | 42 | 43 | 99.9% | 41–45 | 40–45 | 39–46 | 38–47 |
| PS – Ecolo | 34 | 41 | 98.7% | 39–43 | 39–44 | 38–45 | 37–46 |
| PS – cdH – PTB | 45 | 38 | 71% | 36–41 | 36–42 | 35–42 | 35–44 |
| MR – Ecolo | 29 | 37 | 25% | 34–38 | 33–39 | 32–40 | 31–40 |
| PS – PTB | 32 | 32 | 0% | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 28–36 |
| PS – cdH | 43 | 31 | 0.1% | 29–34 | 29–35 | 28–35 | 28–37 |
| MR – cdH | 38 | 27 | 0% | 25–29 | 24–29 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
| Ecolo – PTB | 6 | 23 | 0% | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–26 | 19–26 |
PS – MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 59 | 5% | 96% | Last Result |
| 60 | 14% | 91% | |
| 61 | 21% | 77% | Median |
| 62 | 42% | 56% | |
| 63 | 11% | 14% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 46 | 12% | 96% | |
| 47 | 23% | 84% | |
| 48 | 22% | 61% | Median |
| 49 | 17% | 39% | |
| 50 | 15% | 21% | |
| 51 | 4% | 7% | |
| 52 | 2% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 46 | 15% | 95% | |
| 47 | 32% | 79% | Last Result, Median |
| 48 | 18% | 47% | |
| 49 | 17% | 30% | |
| 50 | 6% | 13% | |
| 51 | 5% | 7% | |
| 52 | 2% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
PS – MR
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98% | |
| 43 | 10% | 95% | |
| 44 | 17% | 85% | |
| 45 | 28% | 68% | Median |
| 46 | 21% | 40% | |
| 47 | 10% | 19% | |
| 48 | 7% | 10% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – Ecolo – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 39 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 40 | 5% | 96% | |
| 41 | 10% | 91% | |
| 42 | 16% | 81% | Last Result, Median |
| 43 | 24% | 65% | |
| 44 | 24% | 40% | |
| 45 | 12% | 16% | |
| 46 | 3% | 4% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
PS – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98.7% | Majority |
| 39 | 10% | 96% | |
| 40 | 22% | 85% | |
| 41 | 26% | 64% | Median |
| 42 | 15% | 38% | |
| 43 | 14% | 23% | |
| 44 | 5% | 9% | |
| 45 | 2% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
PS – cdH – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 9% | 97% | |
| 37 | 17% | 88% | |
| 38 | 31% | 71% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 14% | 40% | |
| 40 | 12% | 27% | |
| 41 | 9% | 15% | |
| 42 | 3% | 5% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
MR – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 33 | 4% | 97% | |
| 34 | 9% | 93% | |
| 35 | 12% | 84% | |
| 36 | 15% | 71% | Median |
| 37 | 32% | 57% | |
| 38 | 15% | 25% | Majority |
| 39 | 7% | 10% | |
| 40 | 3% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
PS – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 30 | 15% | 95% | |
| 31 | 23% | 80% | |
| 32 | 23% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 33 | 16% | 33% | |
| 34 | 9% | 17% | |
| 35 | 6% | 8% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
PS – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 9% | 97% | |
| 30 | 16% | 88% | |
| 31 | 30% | 72% | Median |
| 32 | 13% | 42% | |
| 33 | 14% | 30% | |
| 34 | 9% | 16% | |
| 35 | 5% | 7% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MR – cdH
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 24 | 5% | 97% | |
| 25 | 17% | 92% | |
| 26 | 17% | 75% | Median |
| 27 | 21% | 58% | |
| 28 | 25% | 37% | |
| 29 | 9% | 12% | |
| 30 | 3% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Ecolo – PTB
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 21 | 16% | 95% | |
| 22 | 13% | 79% | |
| 23 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 24 | 24% | 46% | |
| 25 | 19% | 22% | |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 6–14 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.11%