Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 4–9 March 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 25.5% | 23.7–27.3% | 23.2–27.8% | 22.8–28.3% | 22.0–29.2% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 19.6% | 18.0–21.3% | 17.6–21.8% | 17.2–22.2% | 16.5–23.1% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 18.6% | 17.1–20.3% | 16.6–20.7% | 16.3–21.2% | 15.6–22.0% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 15.5% | 14.1–17.1% | 13.7–17.5% | 13.4–17.9% | 12.7–18.7% |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 11.0% | 7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 22 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–27 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 18 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 16 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–20 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 10 | 5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 2–7 | 2–7 |
| DéFI | 0 | 1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 9% | 98.7% | |
| 21 | 23% | 89% | |
| 22 | 33% | 67% | Median |
| 23 | 23% | 34% | Last Result |
| 24 | 7% | 11% | |
| 25 | 2% | 4% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 9% | 98% | |
| 16 | 11% | 89% | |
| 17 | 16% | 79% | |
| 18 | 27% | 62% | Median |
| 19 | 28% | 35% | |
| 20 | 6% | 7% | Last Result |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 34% | 98.9% | |
| 16 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 17 | 42% | 48% | |
| 18 | 5% | 7% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 30% | 98% | Last Result |
| 13 | 36% | 69% | Median |
| 14 | 27% | 33% | |
| 15 | 5% | 6% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Centre démocrate humaniste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 6% | 97% | |
| 4 | 41% | 92% | |
| 5 | 25% | 50% | Median |
| 6 | 22% | 25% | |
| 7 | 2% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 18% | 50% | Median |
| 2 | 6% | 32% | |
| 3 | 8% | 26% | |
| 4 | 16% | 18% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 53 | 100% | 50–55 | 50–56 | 49–56 | 48–57 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 51 | 100% | 50–53 | 49–54 | 48–55 | 47–57 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste | 43 | 43 | 100% | 41–45 | 41–46 | 40–46 | 39–48 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 45 | 40 | 94% | 38–42 | 37–43 | 37–43 | 36–45 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 40 | 88% | 37–42 | 37–43 | 36–43 | 35–44 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 38 | 71% | 36–40 | 36–41 | 36–42 | 34–44 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 42 | 36 | 12% | 33–38 | 32–38 | 32–39 | 31–39 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 35 | 7% | 33–37 | 33–38 | 32–38 | 31–40 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 31 | 0% | 28–33 | 28–33 | 27–33 | 26–34 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 29 | 0% | 28–31 | 27–32 | 27–32 | 26–33 |
| Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste | 33 | 27 | 0% | 25–29 | 24–29 | 24–30 | 23–32 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste | 30 | 22 | 0% | 20–25 | 19–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 50 | 8% | 96% | |
| 51 | 12% | 88% | |
| 52 | 17% | 76% | |
| 53 | 19% | 59% | Median |
| 54 | 21% | 41% | |
| 55 | 13% | 20% | Last Result |
| 56 | 6% | 7% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 49 | 5% | 97% | |
| 50 | 27% | 92% | |
| 51 | 18% | 65% | Median |
| 52 | 27% | 47% | |
| 53 | 11% | 20% | |
| 54 | 5% | 9% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 41 | 7% | 96% | |
| 42 | 32% | 88% | |
| 43 | 22% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 44 | 21% | 34% | |
| 45 | 7% | 12% | |
| 46 | 3% | 5% | |
| 47 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 5% | 98% | |
| 38 | 9% | 94% | Majority |
| 39 | 33% | 84% | |
| 40 | 19% | 51% | Median |
| 41 | 20% | 32% | |
| 42 | 7% | 12% | |
| 43 | 3% | 5% | |
| 44 | 2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 8% | 97% | |
| 38 | 13% | 88% | Majority |
| 39 | 18% | 76% | |
| 40 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 41 | 23% | 39% | |
| 42 | 11% | 16% | |
| 43 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 44 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 8% | 98% | |
| 37 | 19% | 90% | |
| 38 | 33% | 71% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 17% | 37% | |
| 40 | 12% | 20% | |
| 41 | 5% | 8% | |
| 42 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 4% | 98% | |
| 33 | 10% | 94% | |
| 34 | 15% | 85% | |
| 35 | 17% | 70% | |
| 36 | 22% | 52% | Median |
| 37 | 19% | 31% | |
| 38 | 9% | 12% | Majority |
| 39 | 3% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 13% | 97% | |
| 34 | 14% | 85% | |
| 35 | 35% | 70% | Last Result, Median |
| 36 | 19% | 35% | |
| 37 | 9% | 16% | |
| 38 | 5% | 7% | Majority |
| 39 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 6% | 96% | |
| 29 | 13% | 90% | |
| 30 | 18% | 77% | |
| 31 | 22% | 59% | Median |
| 32 | 19% | 37% | Last Result |
| 33 | 16% | 18% | |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 8% | 99.0% | |
| 28 | 19% | 91% | |
| 29 | 30% | 72% | Median |
| 30 | 26% | 42% | |
| 31 | 10% | 16% | |
| 32 | 4% | 5% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 25 | 14% | 95% | |
| 26 | 23% | 81% | |
| 27 | 35% | 58% | Median |
| 28 | 12% | 23% | |
| 29 | 6% | 11% | |
| 30 | 3% | 5% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 4% | 98% | |
| 20 | 7% | 94% | |
| 21 | 15% | 87% | |
| 22 | 23% | 71% | |
| 23 | 22% | 48% | Median |
| 24 | 14% | 26% | |
| 25 | 11% | 12% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 4–9 March 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 974
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.14%