Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 10–15 June 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 23.7% | 22.1–25.5% | 21.6–26.0% | 21.2–26.5% | 20.4–27.4% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 20.5% | 18.9–22.2% | 18.5–22.7% | 18.1–23.1% | 17.3–24.0% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 18.7% | 17.1–20.3% | 16.7–20.8% | 16.4–21.2% | 15.6–22.0% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 15.1% | 13.7–16.7% | 13.3–17.1% | 13.0–17.5% | 12.4–18.3% |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 11.0% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.7% | 6.6–10.0% | 6.1–10.6% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.5–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 21 | 20–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 17–24 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 15–20 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 10–15 |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 10 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 19 | 6% | 98% | |
| 20 | 32% | 92% | |
| 21 | 31% | 60% | Median |
| 22 | 22% | 29% | |
| 23 | 6% | 7% | Last Result |
| 24 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 3% | 98% | |
| 17 | 6% | 95% | |
| 18 | 19% | 88% | |
| 19 | 46% | 70% | Median |
| 20 | 15% | 24% | Last Result |
| 21 | 9% | 9% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 23% | 99.5% | |
| 16 | 17% | 77% | |
| 17 | 51% | 60% | Median |
| 18 | 7% | 9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 37% | 98% | Last Result |
| 13 | 39% | 61% | Median |
| 14 | 17% | 22% | |
| 15 | 4% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Centre démocrate humaniste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 18% | 98.8% | |
| 5 | 26% | 81% | |
| 6 | 46% | 55% | Median |
| 7 | 8% | 9% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 23% | |
| 2 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 3 | 5% | 11% | |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 53 | 100% | 50–54 | 50–55 | 49–55 | 48–56 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 50 | 100% | 49–52 | 48–52 | 47–53 | 46–54 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste | 43 | 43 | 100% | 41–44 | 41–45 | 40–46 | 39–47 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 45 | 39 | 88% | 37–41 | 37–41 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 40 | 91% | 38–41 | 37–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 37 | 47% | 36–39 | 35–39 | 35–40 | 34–41 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 42 | 37 | 41% | 35–39 | 34–39 | 34–40 | 33–41 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 34 | 0.6% | 32–35 | 32–36 | 31–36 | 30–38 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 32 | 0% | 30–33 | 29–34 | 29–34 | 27–35 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 29 | 0% | 28–31 | 27–32 | 27–32 | 26–33 |
| Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste | 33 | 26 | 0% | 25–28 | 24–28 | 24–29 | 23–30 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste | 30 | 25 | 0% | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 20–28 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 50 | 7% | 96% | |
| 51 | 11% | 89% | |
| 52 | 23% | 78% | |
| 53 | 26% | 55% | Median |
| 54 | 22% | 29% | |
| 55 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 56 | 2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 48 | 7% | 97% | |
| 49 | 14% | 90% | |
| 50 | 44% | 77% | |
| 51 | 16% | 33% | Median |
| 52 | 13% | 17% | |
| 53 | 4% | 5% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 41 | 7% | 96% | |
| 42 | 32% | 89% | |
| 43 | 29% | 57% | Last Result |
| 44 | 22% | 28% | Median |
| 45 | 4% | 7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 37 | 9% | 97% | |
| 38 | 13% | 88% | Majority |
| 39 | 44% | 75% | |
| 40 | 14% | 31% | Median |
| 41 | 13% | 18% | |
| 42 | 3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 37 | 6% | 97% | |
| 38 | 13% | 91% | Majority |
| 39 | 20% | 78% | |
| 40 | 23% | 58% | Median |
| 41 | 27% | 35% | |
| 42 | 6% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 34 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 4% | 98% | |
| 36 | 19% | 93% | |
| 37 | 28% | 75% | |
| 38 | 30% | 47% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 12% | 16% | |
| 40 | 3% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98% | |
| 35 | 8% | 95% | |
| 36 | 17% | 87% | |
| 37 | 29% | 70% | |
| 38 | 25% | 41% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 14% | 17% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 32 | 11% | 96% | |
| 33 | 34% | 85% | |
| 34 | 21% | 51% | Median |
| 35 | 23% | 30% | Last Result |
| 36 | 5% | 7% | |
| 37 | 2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 11% | 93% | |
| 31 | 23% | 82% | |
| 32 | 29% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 33 | 25% | 30% | |
| 34 | 4% | 5% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 19% | 94% | |
| 29 | 30% | 75% | |
| 30 | 31% | 45% | Median |
| 31 | 9% | 14% | |
| 32 | 4% | 5% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 5% | 98% | |
| 25 | 18% | 93% | |
| 26 | 31% | 75% | |
| 27 | 28% | 43% | Median |
| 28 | 11% | 15% | |
| 29 | 3% | 5% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 22 | 8% | 96% | |
| 23 | 16% | 88% | |
| 24 | 20% | 72% | |
| 25 | 37% | 52% | Median |
| 26 | 10% | 15% | |
| 27 | 4% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 10–15 June 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 986
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.49%