Opinion Poll by Dedicated for Soirmag, 28 August–1 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 26.2% 26.4% 23.3–30.0% 22.4–31.0% 21.6–31.9% 20.1–33.7%
Mouvement Réformateur 21.4% 23.9% 20.9–27.4% 20.0–28.4% 19.3–29.3% 17.9–31.0%
Ecolo 14.5% 15.4% 12.9–18.4% 12.2–19.3% 11.6–20.1% 10.5–21.6%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 13.7% 15.4% 12.9–18.4% 12.2–19.3% 11.6–20.1% 10.5–21.6%
Centre démocrate humaniste 11.0% 6.1% 4.6–8.3% 4.2–8.9% 3.8–9.5% 3.2–10.7%
DéFI 4.1% 4.3% 3.1–6.3% 2.7–6.8% 2.5–7.3% 2.0–8.4%
Parti Populaire 3.7% 3.6% 2.5–5.4% 2.2–6.0% 2.0–6.4% 1.5–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 23 23 20–28 19–29 18–29 17–31
Mouvement Réformateur 20 21 18–25 18–26 17–26 15–28
Ecolo 12 13 11–15 9–17 9–18 8–19
Parti du Travail de Belgique 10 13 10–16 8–17 8–17 8–19
Centre démocrate humaniste 10 3 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–8
DéFI 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Parti Populaire 0 0 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–5

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 1.2% 99.9%  
18 1.4% 98.7%  
19 3% 97%  
20 7% 94%  
21 15% 88%  
22 9% 72%  
23 20% 63% Last Result, Median
24 12% 43%  
25 6% 31%  
26 8% 25%  
27 4% 16%  
28 6% 12%  
29 4% 6%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.6%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.7%  
16 1.1% 98.9%  
17 2% 98%  
18 6% 96%  
19 11% 90%  
20 15% 79% Last Result
21 25% 64% Median
22 9% 39%  
23 8% 30%  
24 7% 22%  
25 7% 15%  
26 6% 8%  
27 0.9% 2%  
28 1.4% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.3% 99.9%  
8 1.2% 99.6%  
9 4% 98%  
10 3% 95%  
11 5% 91%  
12 24% 86% Last Result
13 28% 62% Median
14 21% 34%  
15 4% 13%  
16 2% 8%  
17 3% 6%  
18 1.3% 4%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 6% 99.7%  
9 3% 94%  
10 24% 90% Last Result
11 7% 66%  
12 7% 59%  
13 6% 52% Median
14 8% 46%  
15 24% 37%  
16 6% 13%  
17 6% 7%  
18 1.1% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.6%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Centre démocrate humaniste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 5% 89%  
2 31% 84%  
3 9% 53% Median
4 23% 44%  
5 12% 21%  
6 7% 10%  
7 1.3% 2%  
8 0.6% 1.0%  
9 0.2% 0.4%  
10 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 23%  
2 2% 19%  
3 3% 17%  
4 9% 14%  
5 4% 5%  
6 1.4% 1.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Parti Populaire

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Last Result, Median
1 14% 31%  
2 12% 17%  
3 1.2% 5%  
4 3% 4%  
5 0.5% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 55 58 100% 54–63 53–63 52–64 49–66
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique 45 50 100% 45–53 44–54 43–55 41–57
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur 43 45 98.9% 41–49 40–50 39–51 37–53
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste 45 40 73% 35–44 34–45 33–45 31–47
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste 43 40 71% 35–43 34–44 33–45 31–47
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste 42 37 45% 34–42 32–43 31–44 30–46
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo 35 36 36% 33–41 31–42 30–43 29–44
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique 33 36 38% 32–40 31–41 30–42 28–44
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 32 34 16% 31–39 30–40 29–40 27–42
Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste 33 27 0% 23–31 22–32 21–32 19–34
Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique 22 26 0% 22–30 21–30 20–31 18–33
Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste 30 24 0% 21–29 20–30 19–31 17–32

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.8% 99.5%  
51 1.2% 98.7%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 95%  
54 8% 92%  
55 8% 84% Last Result
56 14% 76%  
57 10% 63% Median
58 9% 53%  
59 10% 43%  
60 10% 33%  
61 6% 23%  
62 5% 17%  
63 7% 11%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.3% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.8%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Majority
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.5% 99.6%  
42 1.0% 99.1%  
43 3% 98%  
44 4% 95%  
45 6% 92% Last Result
46 6% 85%  
47 9% 79%  
48 10% 70%  
49 9% 60% Median
50 15% 51%  
51 14% 36%  
52 7% 22%  
53 8% 14%  
54 3% 6%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.9% 2%  
57 0.6% 0.9%  
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 0.7% 99.6%  
38 1.3% 98.9% Majority
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 95%  
41 7% 92%  
42 10% 85%  
43 11% 75% Last Result
44 12% 65% Median
45 10% 53%  
46 10% 42%  
47 9% 32%  
48 7% 24%  
49 7% 17%  
50 5% 10%  
51 3% 4%  
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 0.7% 99.4%  
33 2% 98.6%  
34 3% 97%  
35 5% 94%  
36 6% 89%  
37 10% 83%  
38 8% 73% Majority
39 11% 65% Median
40 16% 54%  
41 12% 38%  
42 9% 27%  
43 7% 18%  
44 4% 10%  
45 4% 6% Last Result
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.7%  
32 0.9% 99.4%  
33 2% 98%  
34 3% 96%  
35 6% 93%  
36 8% 87%  
37 8% 79%  
38 12% 71% Majority
39 9% 59% Median
40 13% 50%  
41 12% 37%  
42 13% 25%  
43 5% 11% Last Result
44 3% 6%  
45 1.4% 3%  
46 1.2% 2%  
47 0.3% 0.6%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.9% 99.6%  
31 1.5% 98.7%  
32 2% 97%  
33 5% 95%  
34 6% 90%  
35 10% 85%  
36 11% 74%  
37 18% 63% Median
38 11% 45% Majority
39 9% 34%  
40 8% 25%  
41 5% 17%  
42 5% 12% Last Result
43 3% 7%  
44 3% 5%  
45 0.9% 1.4%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.6%  
30 1.4% 98.8%  
31 2% 97%  
32 4% 95%  
33 8% 91%  
34 9% 83%  
35 16% 74% Last Result
36 13% 58% Median
37 9% 45%  
38 8% 36% Majority
39 8% 28%  
40 7% 19%  
41 5% 13%  
42 3% 7%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.6% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.7%  
29 1.0% 99.3%  
30 2% 98%  
31 6% 96%  
32 4% 90%  
33 8% 86% Last Result
34 8% 78%  
35 10% 70%  
36 12% 61% Median
37 10% 48%  
38 17% 38% Majority
39 8% 21%  
40 5% 13%  
41 3% 7%  
42 2% 4%  
43 0.7% 2%  
44 0.6% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.6%  
28 1.1% 99.2%  
29 2% 98%  
30 4% 96%  
31 6% 92%  
32 9% 86% Last Result
33 19% 77%  
34 13% 57% Median
35 11% 44%  
36 9% 33%  
37 8% 24%  
38 5% 16% Majority
39 5% 11%  
40 3% 6%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.7% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.4% 99.8%  
20 1.4% 99.4%  
21 3% 98%  
22 4% 95%  
23 7% 92%  
24 9% 85%  
25 12% 75%  
26 13% 63% Median
27 13% 50%  
28 12% 37%  
29 8% 25%  
30 6% 17%  
31 4% 10%  
32 4% 6%  
33 1.4% 2% Last Result
34 0.5% 0.8%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.1% 99.9%  
18 0.4% 99.8%  
19 0.7% 99.4%  
20 2% 98.7%  
21 4% 96%  
22 10% 93% Last Result
23 11% 82%  
24 9% 71%  
25 11% 62%  
26 8% 51% Median
27 12% 42%  
28 10% 30%  
29 9% 20%  
30 6% 11%  
31 2% 5%  
32 1.3% 2%  
33 0.7% 1.1%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.8%  
18 2% 99.4%  
19 2% 98%  
20 3% 96%  
21 6% 93%  
22 11% 86%  
23 16% 75%  
24 13% 59% Median
25 13% 46%  
26 9% 33%  
27 7% 24%  
28 6% 17%  
29 3% 11%  
30 4% 7% Last Result
31 1.4% 3%  
32 0.9% 1.3%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations