Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 25 May–1 June 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.8–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 19.1% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.2% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.5% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 18.8% | 17.2–20.4% | 16.8–20.9% | 16.4–21.3% | 15.7–22.1% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 15.0% | 13.6–16.6% | 13.3–17.0% | 12.9–17.4% | 12.3–18.2% |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 11.0% | 10.8% | 9.6–12.1% | 9.3–12.5% | 9.0–12.9% | 8.5–13.6% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–20 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 15 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–20 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 13 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 9–15 |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 10 | 8 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–11 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 3% | 98% | |
| 19 | 13% | 95% | |
| 20 | 23% | 82% | |
| 21 | 32% | 59% | Median |
| 22 | 20% | 27% | |
| 23 | 6% | 7% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 18% | 96% | |
| 16 | 17% | 78% | |
| 17 | 52% | 61% | Median |
| 18 | 7% | 9% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 26% | 98.6% | |
| 15 | 24% | 73% | Median |
| 16 | 15% | 49% | |
| 17 | 16% | 34% | |
| 18 | 11% | 18% | |
| 19 | 6% | 7% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 4% | 98% | |
| 12 | 42% | 94% | Last Result |
| 13 | 37% | 52% | Median |
| 14 | 14% | 16% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Centre démocrate humaniste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 23% | 91% | |
| 8 | 22% | 68% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 46% | |
| 10 | 20% | 28% | Last Result |
| 11 | 9% | 9% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 12% | 40% | |
| 2 | 5% | 27% | |
| 3 | 10% | 22% | |
| 4 | 10% | 12% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 49 | 100% | 47–51 | 46–52 | 45–53 | 44–54 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 50 | 100% | 48–52 | 47–52 | 47–52 | 45–53 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste | 43 | 46 | 100% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 42–49 | 41–49 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 45 | 42 | 97% | 39–44 | 38–44 | 37–45 | 37–46 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 42 | 37 | 33% | 35–39 | 34–39 | 34–40 | 33–42 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 37 | 45% | 35–39 | 35–39 | 34–40 | 33–41 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 36 | 27% | 34–39 | 34–40 | 33–40 | 32–41 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 33 | 0.1% | 31–35 | 31–35 | 30–36 | 29–37 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 28 | 0% | 26–31 | 26–32 | 26–32 | 24–33 |
| Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste | 33 | 29 | 0% | 26–32 | 26–32 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 29 | 0% | 27–31 | 27–31 | 26–31 | 25–33 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste | 30 | 24 | 0% | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 21–29 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 46 | 4% | 97% | |
| 47 | 11% | 93% | |
| 48 | 20% | 82% | |
| 49 | 21% | 62% | Median |
| 50 | 20% | 41% | |
| 51 | 12% | 21% | |
| 52 | 7% | 10% | |
| 53 | 2% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 46 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 47 | 7% | 98% | |
| 48 | 10% | 91% | |
| 49 | 18% | 81% | |
| 50 | 32% | 63% | |
| 51 | 16% | 31% | Median |
| 52 | 12% | 14% | |
| 53 | 2% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 42 | 5% | 98% | |
| 43 | 10% | 93% | Last Result |
| 44 | 13% | 82% | |
| 45 | 15% | 69% | |
| 46 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 47 | 19% | 36% | |
| 48 | 11% | 18% | |
| 49 | 6% | 7% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 4% | 97% | Majority |
| 39 | 11% | 93% | |
| 40 | 11% | 82% | |
| 41 | 14% | 71% | |
| 42 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 43 | 18% | 43% | |
| 44 | 21% | 25% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 7% | 98% | |
| 35 | 11% | 91% | |
| 36 | 20% | 79% | Median |
| 37 | 25% | 59% | |
| 38 | 18% | 33% | Majority |
| 39 | 11% | 15% | |
| 40 | 3% | 5% | |
| 41 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 34 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 35 | 8% | 95% | |
| 36 | 18% | 87% | |
| 37 | 23% | 69% | |
| 38 | 30% | 45% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 11% | 15% | |
| 40 | 4% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 34 | 9% | 96% | |
| 35 | 15% | 87% | |
| 36 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 37 | 20% | 48% | |
| 38 | 14% | 27% | Majority |
| 39 | 8% | 13% | |
| 40 | 4% | 5% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 31 | 8% | 96% | |
| 32 | 15% | 88% | |
| 33 | 28% | 73% | |
| 34 | 20% | 46% | Median |
| 35 | 23% | 26% | Last Result |
| 36 | 3% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 12% | 98% | |
| 27 | 18% | 86% | |
| 28 | 23% | 68% | Median |
| 29 | 19% | 45% | |
| 30 | 12% | 25% | |
| 31 | 8% | 13% | |
| 32 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 33 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 8% | 97% | |
| 27 | 12% | 89% | |
| 28 | 15% | 77% | |
| 29 | 16% | 62% | Median |
| 30 | 21% | 47% | |
| 31 | 14% | 26% | |
| 32 | 11% | 12% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 27 | 8% | 97% | |
| 28 | 19% | 89% | |
| 29 | 29% | 70% | |
| 30 | 30% | 40% | Median |
| 31 | 8% | 10% | |
| 32 | 2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 14% | 97% | |
| 23 | 17% | 84% | Median |
| 24 | 22% | 66% | |
| 25 | 26% | 44% | |
| 26 | 11% | 18% | |
| 27 | 5% | 7% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 25 May–1 June 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 992
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.55%