Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 7–14 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 26.2% 21.4% 19.7–23.2% 19.3–23.7% 18.9–24.2% 18.1–25.0%
Mouvement Réformateur 21.4% 20.3% 18.7–22.1% 18.2–22.6% 17.8–23.0% 17.1–23.9%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 13.7% 18.7% 17.1–20.4% 16.7–20.9% 16.3–21.4% 15.6–22.2%
Ecolo 14.5% 16.7% 15.2–18.3% 14.8–18.8% 14.4–19.2% 13.7–20.0%
Centre démocrate humaniste 11.0% 10.0% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.8% 8.2–12.1% 7.7–12.8%
DéFI 4.1% 5.1% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.7% 3.5–7.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 23 18 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Mouvement Réformateur 20 18 16–20 15–21 14–21 14–21
Parti du Travail de Belgique 10 17 15–18 15–18 14–19 13–20
Ecolo 12 14 13–15 12–16 12–17 12–18
Centre démocrate humaniste 10 7 6–9 6–10 5–10 5–11
DéFI 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 1.1% 99.6%  
17 33% 98.5%  
18 16% 65% Median
19 27% 49%  
20 16% 23%  
21 6% 6%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 3% 100%  
15 6% 97%  
16 3% 91%  
17 12% 88%  
18 40% 76% Median
19 25% 36%  
20 4% 11% Last Result
21 6% 7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100% Last Result
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.1% 99.9%  
13 0.3% 99.7%  
14 4% 99.5%  
15 18% 95%  
16 24% 77%  
17 42% 54% Median
18 9% 12%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.5% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 6% 99.8% Last Result
13 32% 94%  
14 45% 62% Median
15 9% 17%  
16 4% 8%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.9% 0.9%  
19 0% 0%  

Centre démocrate humaniste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 3% 99.7%  
6 23% 97%  
7 48% 74% Median
8 12% 26%  
9 6% 14%  
10 5% 8% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 36%  
2 2% 27%  
3 9% 24%  
4 14% 16%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 55 51 100% 48–53 47–53 47–54 45–54
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo 45 49 100% 47–51 46–51 46–52 44–53
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste 43 42 99.8% 40–44 39–45 39–46 38–47
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste 45 39 85% 37–42 36–43 36–44 35–44
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste 42 39 83% 37–41 36–42 36–42 35–43
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur 43 37 31% 34–39 34–39 33–40 32–41
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique 33 35 4% 33–37 33–37 32–38 31–38
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo 35 32 0.1% 30–34 30–35 30–36 29–36
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 32 32 0% 30–34 29–35 28–35 27–36
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo 22 30 0% 28–32 28–33 28–33 27–35
Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste 33 26 0% 24–28 23–29 23–30 22–30
Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste 30 25 0% 23–28 22–28 22–28 21–29

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 4% 98%  
48 11% 93%  
49 14% 83%  
50 18% 68% Median
51 24% 50%  
52 14% 27%  
53 10% 13%  
54 3% 3%  
55 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 1.5% 99.5% Last Result
46 4% 98%  
47 23% 94%  
48 11% 71%  
49 30% 60% Median
50 19% 30%  
51 7% 11%  
52 3% 4%  
53 1.5% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 1.0% 99.8% Majority
39 6% 98.8%  
40 12% 93%  
41 16% 81%  
42 29% 65% Median
43 21% 37% Last Result
44 7% 16%  
45 5% 8%  
46 2% 4%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.9%  
36 4% 99.4%  
37 10% 95%  
38 13% 85% Majority
39 26% 72% Median
40 20% 47%  
41 13% 27%  
42 6% 14%  
43 5% 8%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 1.4% 99.5%  
36 4% 98%  
37 11% 94%  
38 18% 83% Majority
39 24% 65% Median
40 19% 41%  
41 14% 22%  
42 5% 7% Last Result
43 2% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.4% 100%  
32 2% 99.5%  
33 2% 98%  
34 7% 95%  
35 20% 88%  
36 17% 68% Median
37 20% 51%  
38 19% 31% Majority
39 8% 12%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.7% 0.7%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 1.1% 99.7%  
32 4% 98.7%  
33 13% 95% Last Result
34 24% 83%  
35 25% 58% Median
36 21% 33%  
37 8% 12%  
38 4% 4% Majority
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 2% 99.9%  
30 12% 98%  
31 19% 86%  
32 25% 67% Median
33 19% 42%  
34 12% 22%  
35 7% 10% Last Result
36 2% 3%  
37 0.3% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.1% Majority
39 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.3%  
29 5% 96%  
30 9% 91%  
31 18% 82%  
32 28% 64% Last Result, Median
33 22% 37%  
34 9% 15%  
35 5% 6%  
36 1.1% 1.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0% Majority

Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 2% 99.5%  
28 10% 98%  
29 13% 88%  
30 39% 76%  
31 18% 36% Median
32 11% 19%  
33 5% 7%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.3% 99.8%  
23 7% 98.5%  
24 20% 91%  
25 17% 71% Median
26 29% 54%  
27 12% 25%  
28 6% 13%  
29 4% 7%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.9% 99.9%  
22 5% 99.0%  
23 5% 94%  
24 20% 90%  
25 27% 70% Median
26 24% 43%  
27 8% 18%  
28 8% 10%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations