Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 1–8 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 26.2% 24.9% 23.1–26.7% 22.6–27.3% 22.2–27.7% 21.4–28.6%
Mouvement Réformateur 21.4% 22.3% 20.6–24.1% 20.1–24.6% 19.8–25.0% 19.0–25.9%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 13.7% 18.2% 16.7–19.9% 16.3–20.4% 15.9–20.8% 15.2–21.6%
Ecolo 14.5% 15.5% 14.1–17.1% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.7–18.7%
Centre démocrate humaniste 11.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.7–9.6% 6.4–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
DéFI 4.1% 4.2% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 23 21 20–23 20–23 19–23 18–24
Mouvement Réformateur 20 20 19–21 18–21 18–21 17–22
Parti du Travail de Belgique 10 16 15–17 15–17 15–17 13–18
Ecolo 12 13 12–14 12–14 12–14 11–15
Centre démocrate humaniste 10 5 4–6 4–6 3–7 2–7
DéFI 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–4

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.8%  
19 2% 99.3%  
20 22% 97%  
21 31% 75% Median
22 29% 44%  
23 13% 14% Last Result
24 1.1% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 0.9% 99.6%  
18 4% 98.7%  
19 39% 94%  
20 25% 55% Last Result, Median
21 28% 30%  
22 1.2% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 0.7% 99.5%  
14 1.3% 98.8%  
15 45% 98%  
16 18% 52% Median
17 32% 34%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.3% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 37% 98% Last Result
13 38% 61% Median
14 21% 23%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Centre démocrate humaniste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.8% 100%  
3 2% 99.2%  
4 28% 97%  
5 26% 69% Median
6 41% 44%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.3% 0.4%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.3% 3%  
2 0.6% 2%  
3 1.0% 2%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 55 54 100% 52–56 52–56 52–56 50–57
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo 45 50 100% 48–52 48–52 48–52 47–53
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste 43 42 99.9% 41–44 40–44 40–44 39–45
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur 43 41 99.4% 39–43 39–43 39–44 37–44
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste 45 39 91% 38–41 37–41 37–42 36–43
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste 42 38 58% 36–39 36–40 35–40 34–41
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique 33 37 40% 36–39 35–39 35–40 34–40
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo 35 34 0.8% 33–36 32–36 32–37 31–38
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 32 33 0% 31–34 31–35 31–35 29–35
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo 22 29 0% 27–30 27–30 27–31 25–32
Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste 33 26 0% 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste 30 25 0% 23–27 23–27 22–27 22–28

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.3%  
52 10% 98%  
53 20% 87%  
54 36% 67% Median
55 19% 31% Last Result
56 10% 12%  
57 0.9% 1.2%  
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100% Last Result
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 1.3% 99.6%  
48 11% 98%  
49 15% 88%  
50 46% 73% Median
51 13% 26%  
52 11% 13%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9% Majority
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 5% 99.2%  
41 15% 94%  
42 41% 79% Median
43 21% 38% Last Result
44 16% 17%  
45 0.9% 1.3%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.4% Majority
39 9% 98%  
40 15% 89%  
41 40% 74% Median
42 19% 33%  
43 12% 15% Last Result
44 2% 3%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.8%  
37 8% 99.1%  
38 12% 91% Majority
39 41% 79% Median
40 19% 38%  
41 16% 19%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.6% 0.8%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 3% 99.2%  
36 9% 96%  
37 28% 86%  
38 30% 58% Median, Majority
39 21% 28%  
40 6% 7%  
41 0.8% 1.1%  
42 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
34 1.0% 99.6%  
35 7% 98.6%  
36 22% 92%  
37 30% 70% Median
38 28% 40% Majority
39 9% 12%  
40 3% 3%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.7%  
32 6% 98.7%  
33 27% 93%  
34 22% 66% Median
35 34% 44% Last Result
36 7% 10%  
37 3% 3%  
38 0.6% 0.8% Majority
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.3%  
31 16% 98%  
32 22% 81% Last Result
33 40% 60% Median
34 14% 20%  
35 5% 5%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0% Majority

Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 99.8%  
26 1.3% 99.4%  
27 14% 98%  
28 29% 84%  
29 29% 55% Median
30 21% 26%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.9% 1.0%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.8%  
24 4% 99.2%  
25 17% 95%  
26 28% 77% Median
27 33% 49%  
28 12% 17%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.6% 0.9%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.5%  
23 12% 97%  
24 14% 85%  
25 46% 72% Median
26 15% 26%  
27 10% 11%  
28 1.0% 1.2%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations