Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 15–22 March 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 22.4% | 20.8–24.2% | 20.3–24.6% | 19.9–25.1% | 19.2–25.9% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 20.1% | 18.6–21.8% | 18.1–22.3% | 17.8–22.7% | 17.0–23.5% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 19.7% | 18.2–21.4% | 17.8–21.9% | 17.4–22.3% | 16.7–23.1% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 15.1% | 13.7–16.6% | 13.3–17.0% | 13.0–17.4% | 12.4–18.2% |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.4–10.8% | 8.1–11.2% | 7.8–11.5% | 7.4–12.1% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.4–5.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 20 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 19 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 17 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 10 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 4–11 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 9% | 91% | |
| 19 | 25% | 82% | |
| 20 | 35% | 57% | Median |
| 21 | 17% | 21% | |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 16 | 5% | 94% | |
| 17 | 10% | 89% | |
| 18 | 16% | 79% | |
| 19 | 51% | 63% | Median |
| 20 | 7% | 12% | Last Result |
| 21 | 5% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 16 | 7% | 95% | |
| 17 | 54% | 88% | Median |
| 18 | 25% | 34% | |
| 19 | 5% | 9% | |
| 20 | 4% | 4% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 12 | 34% | 97% | Last Result |
| 13 | 45% | 63% | Median |
| 14 | 13% | 17% | |
| 15 | 4% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Centre démocrate humaniste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 35% | 95% | |
| 7 | 37% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 15% | 23% | |
| 9 | 5% | 8% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 51 | 100% | 49–52 | 48–53 | 48–53 | 46–54 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 50 | 100% | 48–51 | 48–52 | 47–53 | 47–53 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste | 43 | 44 | 100% | 42–46 | 42–47 | 41–47 | 41–48 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 45 | 39 | 90% | 37–41 | 37–42 | 36–43 | 35–44 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 42 | 38 | 66% | 37–40 | 36–40 | 36–41 | 34–42 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 38 | 65% | 36–40 | 35–40 | 35–41 | 34–41 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 37 | 33% | 35–38 | 35–39 | 34–39 | 33–40 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 32 | 0% | 31–34 | 30–35 | 30–35 | 29–36 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–33 | 28–34 | 27–34 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 30 | 0% | 29–32 | 28–32 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste | 33 | 26 | 0% | 25–28 | 24–29 | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste | 30 | 25 | 0% | 24–27 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 22–28 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 48 | 5% | 98% | |
| 49 | 11% | 93% | |
| 50 | 22% | 82% | |
| 51 | 26% | 60% | |
| 52 | 24% | 33% | Median |
| 53 | 7% | 9% | |
| 54 | 2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 48 | 8% | 96% | |
| 49 | 30% | 88% | |
| 50 | 40% | 57% | Median |
| 51 | 11% | 17% | |
| 52 | 4% | 7% | |
| 53 | 2% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 17% | 97% | |
| 43 | 29% | 80% | Last Result |
| 44 | 27% | 52% | Median |
| 45 | 12% | 25% | |
| 46 | 8% | 13% | |
| 47 | 4% | 6% | |
| 48 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 37 | 7% | 97% | |
| 38 | 18% | 90% | Majority |
| 39 | 39% | 72% | |
| 40 | 15% | 33% | Median |
| 41 | 10% | 19% | |
| 42 | 5% | 9% | |
| 43 | 3% | 4% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 5% | 98% | |
| 37 | 27% | 93% | |
| 38 | 29% | 66% | Majority |
| 39 | 23% | 37% | Median |
| 40 | 11% | 14% | |
| 41 | 3% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 35 | 5% | 98% | |
| 36 | 10% | 93% | |
| 37 | 17% | 83% | |
| 38 | 27% | 65% | Majority |
| 39 | 24% | 39% | Median |
| 40 | 11% | 15% | |
| 41 | 4% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 34 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 11% | 97% | |
| 36 | 23% | 85% | |
| 37 | 29% | 62% | Median |
| 38 | 27% | 33% | Majority |
| 39 | 4% | 7% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 7% | 98.6% | |
| 31 | 16% | 91% | |
| 32 | 26% | 75% | |
| 33 | 34% | 49% | Median |
| 34 | 9% | 15% | |
| 35 | 5% | 6% | Last Result |
| 36 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 4% | 98% | |
| 29 | 8% | 94% | |
| 30 | 12% | 86% | |
| 31 | 27% | 74% | |
| 32 | 28% | 48% | Last Result, Median |
| 33 | 17% | 19% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 29 | 17% | 93% | |
| 30 | 51% | 77% | Median |
| 31 | 14% | 26% | |
| 32 | 7% | 12% | |
| 33 | 4% | 5% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 6% | 98% | |
| 25 | 12% | 91% | |
| 26 | 39% | 79% | |
| 27 | 19% | 40% | Median |
| 28 | 11% | 21% | |
| 29 | 6% | 10% | |
| 30 | 3% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 4% | 97% | |
| 24 | 11% | 93% | |
| 25 | 40% | 82% | |
| 26 | 30% | 42% | Median |
| 27 | 8% | 12% | |
| 28 | 4% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 15–22 March 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1009
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.19%