Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 6–14 June 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 25.3% | 23.6–27.1% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.7–28.1% | 21.9–29.0% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 19.2% | 17.7–20.9% | 17.3–21.4% | 16.9–21.8% | 16.2–22.6% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 19.1% | 17.6–20.8% | 17.2–21.3% | 16.8–21.7% | 16.1–22.5% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 14.4% | 13.0–15.9% | 12.7–16.3% | 12.3–16.7% | 11.7–17.4% |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 11.0% | 8.8% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.4% | 7.2–10.7% | 6.8–11.4% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 22 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–27 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 15–20 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 12 | 12–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 10 | 6 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 9% | 98.8% | |
| 21 | 29% | 90% | |
| 22 | 28% | 60% | Median |
| 23 | 17% | 32% | Last Result |
| 24 | 11% | 15% | |
| 25 | 2% | 4% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 11% | 95% | |
| 16 | 12% | 84% | |
| 17 | 14% | 72% | |
| 18 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 19 | 41% | 44% | |
| 20 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 16% | 99.6% | |
| 16 | 15% | 84% | |
| 17 | 56% | 69% | Median |
| 18 | 8% | 13% | |
| 19 | 3% | 5% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 7% | 97% | |
| 12 | 59% | 90% | Last Result, Median |
| 13 | 25% | 32% | |
| 14 | 5% | 7% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Centre démocrate humaniste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 14% | 94% | |
| 6 | 48% | 80% | Median |
| 7 | 21% | 32% | |
| 8 | 8% | 11% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 52 | 100% | 50–54 | 49–54 | 49–54 | 48–55 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 51 | 100% | 50–53 | 49–54 | 49–54 | 48–56 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste | 43 | 44 | 100% | 43–48 | 43–48 | 42–49 | 42–49 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 45 | 40 | 98% | 39–43 | 38–44 | 38–44 | 37–46 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 40 | 88% | 37–41 | 37–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 38 | 86% | 37–41 | 37–41 | 36–42 | 36–43 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 42 | 36 | 13% | 34–38 | 33–38 | 33–39 | 31–39 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 34 | 2% | 33–36 | 32–37 | 32–37 | 31–39 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 30 | 0% | 27–32 | 27–32 | 26–33 | 26–33 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 29 | 0% | 27–30 | 27–31 | 27–32 | 26–33 |
| Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste | 33 | 28 | 0% | 26–31 | 26–31 | 26–32 | 25–33 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste | 30 | 24 | 0% | 22–25 | 21–26 | 20–26 | 19–27 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 5% | 98% | |
| 50 | 11% | 93% | |
| 51 | 17% | 82% | |
| 52 | 29% | 65% | Median |
| 53 | 21% | 36% | |
| 54 | 13% | 15% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 5% | 98% | |
| 50 | 41% | 93% | |
| 51 | 18% | 53% | Median |
| 52 | 17% | 34% | |
| 53 | 11% | 17% | |
| 54 | 4% | 6% | |
| 55 | 2% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 42 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 10% | 95% | Last Result |
| 44 | 37% | 85% | |
| 45 | 15% | 48% | Median |
| 46 | 13% | 33% | |
| 47 | 10% | 20% | |
| 48 | 7% | 10% | |
| 49 | 3% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 37 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 4% | 98% | Majority |
| 39 | 31% | 94% | |
| 40 | 17% | 63% | Median |
| 41 | 18% | 46% | |
| 42 | 12% | 28% | |
| 43 | 10% | 16% | |
| 44 | 4% | 6% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 8% | 96% | |
| 38 | 12% | 88% | Majority |
| 39 | 18% | 76% | |
| 40 | 25% | 58% | Median |
| 41 | 24% | 33% | |
| 42 | 8% | 9% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 11% | 96% | |
| 38 | 39% | 86% | Majority |
| 39 | 20% | 46% | Median |
| 40 | 13% | 26% | |
| 41 | 9% | 14% | |
| 42 | 3% | 5% | |
| 43 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 4% | 98% | |
| 34 | 11% | 94% | |
| 35 | 14% | 83% | |
| 36 | 21% | 69% | Median |
| 37 | 36% | 48% | |
| 38 | 10% | 13% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 6% | 98.7% | |
| 33 | 29% | 93% | |
| 34 | 21% | 65% | Median |
| 35 | 23% | 44% | Last Result |
| 36 | 15% | 21% | |
| 37 | 4% | 6% | |
| 38 | 2% | 2% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 9% | 96% | |
| 28 | 10% | 88% | |
| 29 | 16% | 77% | |
| 30 | 15% | 62% | Median |
| 31 | 34% | 47% | |
| 32 | 9% | 13% | Last Result |
| 33 | 4% | 4% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 10% | 98.7% | |
| 28 | 21% | 89% | |
| 29 | 37% | 69% | Median |
| 30 | 23% | 31% | |
| 31 | 6% | 9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 9% | 98% | |
| 27 | 30% | 89% | |
| 28 | 19% | 59% | Median |
| 29 | 17% | 40% | |
| 30 | 10% | 23% | |
| 31 | 9% | 12% | |
| 32 | 3% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 21 | 5% | 97% | |
| 22 | 14% | 93% | |
| 23 | 17% | 79% | |
| 24 | 19% | 61% | Median |
| 25 | 37% | 43% | |
| 26 | 4% | 5% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 6–14 June 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1008
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.49%