Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 7–13 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 23.0% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.5% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 22.1% | 20.4–23.8% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.6–24.7% | 18.8–25.6% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 18.5% | 17.0–20.1% | 16.5–20.6% | 16.2–21.0% | 15.5–21.8% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 13.7% | 12.4–15.2% | 12.0–15.6% | 11.7–15.9% | 11.1–16.7% |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.1–10.5% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.1–11.8% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 20 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 19 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 16 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 10 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–10 |
| DéFI | 0 | 2 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 8% | 92% | |
| 19 | 24% | 84% | |
| 20 | 31% | 60% | Median |
| 21 | 21% | 28% | |
| 22 | 6% | 8% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 17 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 18 | 26% | 95% | |
| 19 | 19% | 69% | Median |
| 20 | 19% | 50% | Last Result |
| 21 | 29% | 31% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 15 | 30% | 97% | |
| 16 | 25% | 67% | Median |
| 17 | 36% | 42% | |
| 18 | 5% | 6% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 11% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 10% | 88% | |
| 11 | 15% | 78% | |
| 12 | 48% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 13 | 14% | 16% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Centre démocrate humaniste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 10% | 97% | |
| 6 | 54% | 87% | Median |
| 7 | 28% | 33% | |
| 8 | 2% | 4% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 5% | 58% | |
| 2 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 3 | 13% | 47% | |
| 4 | 27% | 34% | |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 51 | 100% | 48–53 | 48–54 | 47–54 | 46–55 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 47 | 100% | 45–50 | 44–50 | 44–50 | 43–51 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste | 43 | 42 | 99.7% | 40–44 | 39–45 | 39–45 | 38–46 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 39 | 80% | 37–41 | 36–42 | 35–42 | 35–43 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 42 | 37 | 41% | 35–40 | 34–40 | 34–41 | 33–42 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 45 | 38 | 51% | 35–39 | 35–40 | 34–41 | 33–42 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 36 | 15% | 34–38 | 33–38 | 33–38 | 32–39 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–33 | 28–34 | 27–35 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–34 | 28–34 | 26–35 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 28 | 0% | 25–29 | 24–30 | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste | 33 | 26 | 0% | 24–28 | 23–28 | 23–29 | 22–30 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste | 30 | 26 | 0% | 24–28 | 23–28 | 23–28 | 22–30 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 48 | 9% | 95% | |
| 49 | 16% | 86% | |
| 50 | 19% | 70% | |
| 51 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 52 | 15% | 35% | |
| 53 | 12% | 20% | |
| 54 | 7% | 7% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 5% | 98% | |
| 45 | 9% | 92% | Last Result |
| 46 | 12% | 83% | |
| 47 | 24% | 72% | |
| 48 | 22% | 47% | Median |
| 49 | 13% | 25% | |
| 50 | 12% | 12% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 39 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 40 | 10% | 94% | |
| 41 | 17% | 85% | |
| 42 | 31% | 67% | Median |
| 43 | 17% | 36% | Last Result |
| 44 | 12% | 19% | |
| 45 | 5% | 7% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 4% | 97% | |
| 37 | 14% | 94% | |
| 38 | 16% | 80% | Majority |
| 39 | 17% | 63% | Median |
| 40 | 19% | 47% | |
| 41 | 20% | 28% | |
| 42 | 6% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 35 | 11% | 93% | |
| 36 | 20% | 82% | |
| 37 | 21% | 62% | Median |
| 38 | 15% | 41% | Majority |
| 39 | 15% | 25% | |
| 40 | 7% | 10% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98% | |
| 35 | 9% | 95% | |
| 36 | 14% | 86% | |
| 37 | 20% | 72% | |
| 38 | 20% | 51% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 24% | 31% | |
| 40 | 4% | 7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 33 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 34 | 13% | 94% | |
| 35 | 20% | 80% | |
| 36 | 27% | 61% | Median |
| 37 | 19% | 34% | |
| 38 | 13% | 15% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 29 | 14% | 93% | |
| 30 | 23% | 79% | |
| 31 | 19% | 56% | Median |
| 32 | 14% | 37% | Last Result |
| 33 | 19% | 23% | |
| 34 | 4% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 27 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 28 | 3% | 98% | |
| 29 | 11% | 95% | |
| 30 | 18% | 84% | |
| 31 | 19% | 66% | |
| 32 | 22% | 46% | Median |
| 33 | 19% | 24% | |
| 34 | 3% | 5% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 25 | 5% | 94% | |
| 26 | 11% | 89% | |
| 27 | 20% | 78% | |
| 28 | 31% | 58% | Median |
| 29 | 18% | 27% | |
| 30 | 9% | 10% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 24 | 11% | 95% | |
| 25 | 16% | 84% | |
| 26 | 34% | 68% | Median |
| 27 | 22% | 34% | |
| 28 | 8% | 12% | |
| 29 | 3% | 4% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 4% | 98% | |
| 24 | 21% | 94% | |
| 25 | 22% | 74% | Median |
| 26 | 16% | 52% | |
| 27 | 22% | 36% | |
| 28 | 12% | 14% | |
| 29 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 7–13 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.27%