Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 21–29 November 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 23.7% | 22.0–25.4% | 21.5–25.9% | 21.1–26.4% | 20.3–27.3% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 20.4% | 18.8–22.1% | 18.4–22.6% | 18.0–23.0% | 17.3–23.8% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 17.9% | 16.4–19.5% | 16.0–20.0% | 15.6–20.4% | 14.9–21.2% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 13.1% | 11.8–14.5% | 11.4–15.0% | 11.1–15.3% | 10.5–16.0% |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 11.0% | 9.1% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.5–11.0% | 7.0–11.7% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 17–24 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–21 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 14–18 | 12–19 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 10 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| DéFI | 0 | 1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 19 | 11% | 98% | |
| 20 | 21% | 86% | |
| 21 | 34% | 66% | Median |
| 22 | 22% | 31% | |
| 23 | 9% | 10% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 16 | 4% | 97% | |
| 17 | 12% | 93% | |
| 18 | 30% | 82% | |
| 19 | 25% | 51% | Median |
| 20 | 17% | 26% | Last Result |
| 21 | 9% | 10% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 15 | 33% | 97% | |
| 16 | 23% | 63% | Median |
| 17 | 37% | 41% | |
| 18 | 3% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 8% | 98% | |
| 10 | 16% | 90% | |
| 11 | 17% | 74% | |
| 12 | 46% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 13 | 10% | 11% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Centre démocrate humaniste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 98% | |
| 6 | 51% | 91% | Median |
| 7 | 32% | 40% | |
| 8 | 5% | 8% | |
| 9 | 2% | 4% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 2% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 2 | 6% | 45% | |
| 3 | 13% | 39% | |
| 4 | 22% | 26% | |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 51 | 100% | 48–53 | 48–54 | 47–54 | 46–55 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 48 | 100% | 46–50 | 45–50 | 44–51 | 43–52 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste | 43 | 43 | 100% | 42–45 | 41–46 | 40–47 | 39–48 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 40 | 85% | 37–42 | 37–42 | 36–43 | 35–43 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 45 | 39 | 77% | 36–41 | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–44 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 42 | 36 | 23% | 34–39 | 33–39 | 33–40 | 32–41 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 37 | 40% | 35–39 | 34–39 | 34–39 | 33–41 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 32 | 0% | 30–34 | 29–35 | 29–35 | 28–36 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 30 | 0% | 28–32 | 27–33 | 27–33 | 25–34 |
| Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste | 33 | 27 | 0% | 26–29 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 23–32 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 27 | 0% | 25–29 | 24–30 | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste | 30 | 25 | 0% | 23–27 | 22–28 | 22–28 | 21–29 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 48 | 9% | 96% | |
| 49 | 12% | 87% | |
| 50 | 19% | 76% | |
| 51 | 21% | 57% | |
| 52 | 15% | 36% | Median |
| 53 | 12% | 21% | |
| 54 | 8% | 9% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 45 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 46 | 8% | 94% | |
| 47 | 18% | 86% | |
| 48 | 22% | 69% | |
| 49 | 19% | 46% | Median |
| 50 | 24% | 28% | |
| 51 | 3% | 4% | |
| 52 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.2% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 41 | 6% | 97% | |
| 42 | 20% | 90% | |
| 43 | 22% | 70% | Last Result, Median |
| 44 | 24% | 47% | |
| 45 | 14% | 23% | |
| 46 | 6% | 9% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 10% | 96% | |
| 38 | 15% | 85% | Majority |
| 39 | 18% | 70% | |
| 40 | 17% | 52% | Median |
| 41 | 23% | 34% | |
| 42 | 8% | 11% | |
| 43 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 7% | 96% | |
| 37 | 12% | 89% | |
| 38 | 18% | 77% | Majority |
| 39 | 34% | 59% | Median |
| 40 | 13% | 26% | |
| 41 | 9% | 13% | |
| 42 | 2% | 4% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 34 | 9% | 95% | |
| 35 | 16% | 85% | |
| 36 | 21% | 69% | |
| 37 | 26% | 48% | Median |
| 38 | 13% | 23% | Majority |
| 39 | 7% | 10% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 34 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 35 | 9% | 95% | |
| 36 | 22% | 86% | |
| 37 | 24% | 64% | Median |
| 38 | 30% | 40% | Majority |
| 39 | 8% | 10% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 30 | 9% | 94% | |
| 31 | 16% | 85% | |
| 32 | 20% | 69% | |
| 33 | 29% | 48% | Median |
| 34 | 11% | 19% | |
| 35 | 7% | 8% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 27 | 5% | 98% | |
| 28 | 14% | 93% | |
| 29 | 19% | 78% | |
| 30 | 24% | 60% | |
| 31 | 18% | 36% | Median |
| 32 | 12% | 18% | Last Result |
| 33 | 6% | 6% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 25 | 5% | 98% | |
| 26 | 19% | 92% | |
| 27 | 32% | 73% | Median |
| 28 | 20% | 41% | |
| 29 | 13% | 21% | |
| 30 | 5% | 8% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 23 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 25 | 6% | 95% | |
| 26 | 12% | 88% | |
| 27 | 28% | 76% | |
| 28 | 26% | 48% | Median |
| 29 | 16% | 22% | |
| 30 | 5% | 6% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 4% | 98% | |
| 23 | 8% | 95% | |
| 24 | 24% | 87% | |
| 25 | 28% | 63% | Median |
| 26 | 17% | 35% | |
| 27 | 12% | 18% | |
| 28 | 5% | 6% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 21–29 November 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.66%