Opinion Poll by Kantar for La Libre Belgique and RTBf, 16–29 January 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 25.7% | 23.3–28.3% | 22.6–29.1% | 22.1–29.7% | 21.0–31.0% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 20.1% | 18.0–22.6% | 17.4–23.3% | 16.8–23.9% | 15.9–25.1% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 19.7% | 17.6–22.1% | 17.0–22.8% | 16.5–23.4% | 15.5–24.6% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 11.4% | 9.7–13.4% | 9.3–13.9% | 8.9–14.4% | 8.1–15.5% |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 11.0% | 9.4% | 7.9–11.2% | 7.5–11.8% | 7.1–12.2% | 6.5–13.2% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.0–7.3% | 3.7–7.7% | 3.3–8.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 22 | 20–25 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 17–28 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 17 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 18 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 13–22 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 9 | 7–12 | 6–12 | 6–12 | 6–13 |
| Centre démocrate humaniste | 10 | 7 | 5–9 | 4–10 | 4–10 | 3–11 |
| DéFI | 0 | 1 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 19 | 3% | 98% | |
| 20 | 15% | 95% | |
| 21 | 17% | 80% | |
| 22 | 25% | 63% | Median |
| 23 | 18% | 38% | Last Result |
| 24 | 8% | 20% | |
| 25 | 4% | 12% | |
| 26 | 3% | 8% | |
| 27 | 3% | 5% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 11% | 98% | |
| 16 | 8% | 87% | |
| 17 | 45% | 79% | Median |
| 18 | 12% | 34% | |
| 19 | 8% | 22% | |
| 20 | 10% | 14% | |
| 21 | 3% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 9% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 12% | 90% | |
| 16 | 9% | 78% | |
| 17 | 13% | 69% | |
| 18 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 19 | 31% | 43% | |
| 20 | 8% | 12% | Last Result |
| 21 | 4% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 11% | 90% | |
| 8 | 24% | 79% | |
| 9 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 10 | 19% | 41% | |
| 11 | 9% | 22% | |
| 12 | 12% | 13% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Centre démocrate humaniste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centre démocrate humaniste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 8% | 92% | |
| 6 | 28% | 84% | |
| 7 | 27% | 56% | Median |
| 8 | 12% | 28% | |
| 9 | 10% | 17% | |
| 10 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 36% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 15% | 64% | Median |
| 2 | 6% | 49% | |
| 3 | 7% | 43% | |
| 4 | 27% | 37% | |
| 5 | 7% | 9% | |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 49 | 100% | 45–52 | 44–53 | 44–54 | 42–55 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 49 | 100% | 45–52 | 45–53 | 44–54 | 43–55 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste | 43 | 46 | 100% | 43–50 | 43–51 | 42–52 | 41–53 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 39 | 83% | 37–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 | 34–46 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 40 | 81% | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 | 33–47 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 45 | 38 | 58% | 35–41 | 34–42 | 33–44 | 32–45 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste | 42 | 33 | 3% | 30–36 | 29–37 | 28–38 | 27–39 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 31 | 0.8% | 28–34 | 28–35 | 27–36 | 25–38 |
| Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste | 33 | 29 | 0.1% | 26–32 | 26–33 | 25–34 | 23–36 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 27 | 0% | 23–30 | 22–30 | 22–31 | 21–32 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 26 | 0% | 23–29 | 23–30 | 22–31 | 21–32 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste | 30 | 25 | 0% | 21–27 | 21–28 | 20–29 | 18–30 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 44 | 4% | 98% | |
| 45 | 5% | 94% | |
| 46 | 7% | 89% | |
| 47 | 11% | 82% | |
| 48 | 17% | 71% | |
| 49 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 50 | 16% | 39% | |
| 51 | 11% | 23% | |
| 52 | 6% | 12% | |
| 53 | 3% | 6% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98% | |
| 45 | 6% | 96% | Last Result |
| 46 | 12% | 90% | |
| 47 | 12% | 78% | |
| 48 | 14% | 66% | Median |
| 49 | 16% | 52% | |
| 50 | 17% | 36% | |
| 51 | 8% | 20% | |
| 52 | 7% | 12% | |
| 53 | 3% | 5% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 43 | 7% | 95% | Last Result |
| 44 | 14% | 89% | |
| 45 | 13% | 75% | |
| 46 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 47 | 14% | 48% | |
| 48 | 13% | 34% | |
| 49 | 10% | 21% | |
| 50 | 5% | 11% | |
| 51 | 3% | 6% | |
| 52 | 3% | 4% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 11% | 95% | |
| 38 | 17% | 83% | Majority |
| 39 | 19% | 67% | Median |
| 40 | 20% | 47% | |
| 41 | 10% | 28% | |
| 42 | 6% | 18% | |
| 43 | 5% | 12% | |
| 44 | 4% | 7% | |
| 45 | 3% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98% | |
| 36 | 5% | 95% | |
| 37 | 9% | 90% | |
| 38 | 13% | 81% | Majority |
| 39 | 14% | 68% | |
| 40 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 41 | 18% | 41% | |
| 42 | 11% | 23% | |
| 43 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 44 | 3% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 4% | 97% | |
| 35 | 10% | 93% | |
| 36 | 11% | 83% | |
| 37 | 15% | 73% | |
| 38 | 13% | 58% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 19% | 45% | |
| 40 | 12% | 26% | |
| 41 | 6% | 15% | |
| 42 | 3% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 5% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 29 | 3% | 97% | |
| 30 | 5% | 94% | |
| 31 | 11% | 90% | |
| 32 | 14% | 79% | |
| 33 | 16% | 65% | |
| 34 | 17% | 49% | Median |
| 35 | 13% | 32% | |
| 36 | 10% | 19% | |
| 37 | 6% | 9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 8% | 95% | |
| 29 | 14% | 87% | |
| 30 | 13% | 74% | |
| 31 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 45% | |
| 33 | 13% | 29% | |
| 34 | 6% | 16% | |
| 35 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 3% | 98% | |
| 26 | 10% | 95% | |
| 27 | 15% | 85% | |
| 28 | 14% | 70% | |
| 29 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 30 | 14% | 42% | |
| 31 | 12% | 28% | |
| 32 | 8% | 16% | |
| 33 | 4% | 8% | Last Result |
| 34 | 2% | 4% | |
| 35 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 5% | 98% | |
| 23 | 6% | 93% | |
| 24 | 7% | 87% | |
| 25 | 11% | 80% | |
| 26 | 13% | 69% | |
| 27 | 23% | 56% | Median |
| 28 | 13% | 33% | |
| 29 | 10% | 20% | |
| 30 | 6% | 10% | |
| 31 | 3% | 5% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 23 | 8% | 97% | |
| 24 | 11% | 89% | |
| 25 | 15% | 78% | |
| 26 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 27 | 17% | 48% | |
| 28 | 11% | 31% | |
| 29 | 11% | 20% | |
| 30 | 6% | 9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Centre démocrate humaniste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 20 | 2% | 98% | |
| 21 | 7% | 96% | |
| 22 | 11% | 89% | |
| 23 | 12% | 78% | |
| 24 | 16% | 67% | |
| 25 | 20% | 51% | Median |
| 26 | 15% | 30% | |
| 27 | 7% | 16% | |
| 28 | 5% | 8% | |
| 29 | 2% | 4% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar
- Commissioner(s): La Libre Belgique and RTBf
- Fieldwork period: 16–29 January 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 502
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.75%