Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard and VRT, 13–23 March 2023
Areas included: Flanders
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlaams Belang | 12.0% | 24.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie | 16.0% | 21.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Vooruit | 6.7% | 16.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België | 3.3% | 9.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 8.5% | 9.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 8.9% | 9.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Groen | 6.1% | 7.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlaams Belang | 18 | 23 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 21–27 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie | 25 | 20 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| Vooruit | 9 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België | 3 | 8 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 12 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 12 | 7 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| Groen | 8 | 5 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 13% | 100% | |
| 22 | 19% | 87% | |
| 23 | 22% | 69% | Median |
| 24 | 22% | 47% | |
| 25 | 23% | 25% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 7% | 98% | |
| 19 | 14% | 90% | |
| 20 | 51% | 76% | Median |
| 21 | 18% | 25% | |
| 22 | 6% | 7% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vooruit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 9% | 98% | |
| 15 | 34% | 89% | |
| 16 | 42% | 55% | Median |
| 17 | 12% | 13% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 4% | 98% | |
| 8 | 85% | 93% | Median |
| 9 | 8% | 8% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 11% | 100% | |
| 7 | 55% | 89% | Median |
| 8 | 20% | 34% | |
| 9 | 13% | 14% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 17% | 100% | |
| 6 | 25% | 83% | |
| 7 | 20% | 58% | Median |
| 8 | 21% | 38% | |
| 9 | 10% | 17% | |
| 10 | 7% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 51% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 17% | 47% | |
| 7 | 27% | 29% | |
| 8 | 1.5% | 2% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | |:———:|:———–:|:——:|:———:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard and VRT
- Fieldwork period: 13–23 March 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 2092
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.67%