Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie
Voting Intentions
Last result: 16.0% (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 12.2% | 11.5–12.5% | 11.3–12.5% | 11.1–12.5% | 10.7–12.5% |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
13.2% | 11.5–12.3% | 11.3–12.3% | 11.1–12.3% | 10.8–12.3% |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
12.6% | 11.6–13.3% | 11.3–13.5% | 11.1–13.6% | 10.7–13.6% |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
13.0% | 11.4–12.2% | 11.2–12.2% | 11.1–12.2% | 10.7–12.2% |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13.6% | 12.6–14.3% | 12.3–14.5% | 12.1–14.6% | 11.6–14.6% |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
13.0% | 10.8–11.8% | 10.5–11.8% | 10.3–11.8% | 9.9–11.9% |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
12.7% | 11.1–11.9% | 10.9–11.9% | 10.7–11.9% | 10.4–11.9% |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13.7% | 12.0–12.8% | 11.8–12.8% | 11.6–12.8% | 11.2–12.8% |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13.4% | 12.3–14.1% | 12.1–14.2% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.4–14.4% |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS De Standaard and VRT |
21.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
13.5% | 11.2–12.3% | 11.0–12.4% | 10.7–12.4% | 10.3–12.4% |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13.6% | 12.6–14.3% | 12.3–14.5% | 12.1–14.5% | 11.6–14.6% |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13.3% | 12.3–14.0% | 12.0–14.2% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.3–14.3% |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15.6% | 13.8–14.6% | 13.6–14.7% | 13.4–14.7% | 13.0–14.7% |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14.8% | 13.0–13.8% | 12.8–13.8% | 12.6–13.9% | 12.2–13.9% |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13.6% | 11.9–12.7% | 11.7–12.7% | 11.5–12.7% | 11.1–12.7% |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13.3% | 11.6–12.4% | 11.4–12.4% | 11.2–12.4% | 10.9–12.5% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13.8% | 12.0–12.8% | 11.8–12.9% | 11.7–12.9% | 11.3–12.9% |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
12.6% | 10.9–11.7% | 10.7–11.7% | 10.6–11.7% | 10.2–11.7% |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
12.7% | 11.0–11.8% | 10.8–11.8% | 10.7–11.8% | 10.3–11.8% |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14.1% | 12.3–13.1% | 12.1–13.2% | 12.0–13.2% | 11.6–13.2% |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
15.0% | 12.7–13.7% | 12.4–13.8% | 12.2–13.8% | 11.7–13.8% |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
12.7% | 11.0–11.8% | 10.8–11.8% | 10.7–11.8% | 10.3–11.9% |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13.1% | 11.4–12.2% | 11.2–12.2% | 11.0–12.2% | 10.6–12.2% |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14.1% | 12.3–13.1% | 12.1–13.1% | 11.9–13.2% | 11.6–13.2% |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14.3% | 12.6–13.4% | 12.4–13.4% | 12.2–13.4% | 11.8–13.4% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 10% | 99.8% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 90% | 90% | Median |
| 12.5–13.5% | 100% | 0.1% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 18% | 0% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.8% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 25 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 19 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 15–24 |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
20 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
19 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 15–23 |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
20 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 16–24 | 15–25 |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 16–23 |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS De Standaard and VRT |
20 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
21 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 | 15–26 |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 16–25 |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 21–27 | 20–28 |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 18–26 |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 16–25 |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 16–25 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–23 |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 16–22 | 16–23 |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
23 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 19–27 | 18–28 |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–23 |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 15–24 |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
20 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 18–26 |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 18–26 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 5% | 98% | |
| 18 | 14% | 93% | |
| 19 | 28% | 78% | Median |
| 20 | 34% | 50% | |
| 21 | 10% | 16% | |
| 22 | 4% | 6% | |
| 23 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |