Vlaams Belang
Voting Intentions
Last result: 12.0% (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 15.7% | 15.0–16.0% | 14.7–16.1% | 14.5–16.1% | 14.1–16.1% |
| 28–31 May 2024 | Cluster17 RTL TVi |
16.8% | 15.8–17.5% | 15.5–17.7% | 15.2–17.8% | 14.8–17.8% |
| 14–20 May 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
16.6% | 15.8–17.1% | 15.6–17.2% | 15.4–17.3% | 15.0–17.3% |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
16.4% | 14.6–15.5% | 14.4–15.5% | 14.2–15.5% | 13.8–15.5% |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
16.9% | 15.8–17.7% | 15.5–17.9% | 15.3–17.9% | 14.8–18.0% |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
16.2% | 14.4–15.2% | 14.2–15.3% | 14.0–15.3% | 13.6–15.3% |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15.5% | 14.4–16.3% | 14.1–16.5% | 13.9–16.5% | 13.4–16.6% |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
14.8% | 12.4–13.5% | 12.2–13.5% | 11.9–13.6% | 11.4–13.6% |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
16.2% | 14.3–15.2% | 14.1–15.2% | 13.9–15.2% | 13.5–15.2% |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14.3% | 12.5–13.3% | 12.3–13.4% | 12.1–13.4% | 11.8–13.4% |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15.5% | 14.4–16.2% | 14.1–16.4% | 13.8–16.5% | 13.4–16.6% |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS De Standaard and VRT |
24.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
15.5% | 13.0–14.2% | 12.7–14.2% | 12.5–14.2% | 12.0–14.2% |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15.7% | 14.7–16.5% | 14.4–16.7% | 14.1–16.8% | 13.6–16.8% |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13.4% | 12.3–14.1% | 12.1–14.2% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.4–14.4% |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14.2% | 12.4–13.2% | 12.2–13.3% | 12.0–13.3% | 11.7–13.3% |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14.0% | 12.2–13.0% | 12.0–13.0% | 11.8–13.0% | 11.5–13.1% |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15.4% | 13.6–14.4% | 13.4–14.4% | 13.2–14.5% | 12.8–14.5% |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14.7% | 12.9–13.8% | 12.7–13.8% | 12.6–13.8% | 12.2–13.8% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
16.4% | 14.6–15.4% | 14.3–15.4% | 14.2–15.5% | 13.8–15.5% |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14.8% | 13.0–13.9% | 12.8–13.9% | 12.7–13.9% | 12.3–13.9% |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
16.6% | 14.7–15.6% | 14.5–15.6% | 14.3–15.6% | 13.9–15.6% |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
17.0% | 15.2–16.0% | 14.9–16.1% | 14.7–16.1% | 14.3–16.1% |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
17.1% | 14.7–15.8% | 14.4–15.8% | 14.2–15.9% | 13.7–15.9% |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
17.4% | 15.4–16.3% | 15.2–16.4% | 15.0–16.4% | 14.6–16.4% |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
17.6% | 15.6–16.5% | 15.4–16.6% | 15.2–16.6% | 14.8–16.6% |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
17.0% | 15.2–16.0% | 15.0–16.1% | 14.8–16.1% | 14.4–16.1% |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15.6% | 13.8–14.6% | 13.6–14.6% | 13.4–14.7% | 13.0–14.7% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 3% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 36% | 97% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 100% | 61% | Median |
| 16.5–17.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 32% | 0% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 3% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 18 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 26 | 24–28 | 24–29 | 23–29 | 22–30 |
| 28–31 May 2024 | Cluster17 RTL TVi |
26 | 25–29 | 25–29 | 24–29 | 23–30 |
| 14–20 May 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
26 | 25–28 | 25–28 | 24–29 | 23–29 |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
25 | 23–27 | 23–28 | 22–29 | 21–30 |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
26 | 25–29 | 24–29 | 23–29 | 22–30 |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
25 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–28 | 21–29 |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
24 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–28 |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
22 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 19–26 | 17–28 |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 22–28 | 21–29 |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21 | 20–23 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
24 | 22–26 | 21–26 | 21–27 | 20–28 |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS De Standaard and VRT |
23 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 21–27 |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
24 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 19–28 | 18–29 |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 21–29 |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
23 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–26 | 19–27 |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 19–26 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25 | 24–26 | 23–27 | 22–29 | 21–30 |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25 | 24–27 | 23–28 | 22–29 | 21–30 |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25 | 25–29 | 24–29 | 23–30 | 22–30 |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
26 | 24–29 | 23–29 | 22–30 | 21–32 |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
26 | 25–29 | 24–29 | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
26 | 25–29 | 25–30 | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
26 | 24–28 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 22–30 |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
24 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–28 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 24 | 7% | 95% | |
| 25 | 31% | 88% | |
| 26 | 27% | 57% | Median |
| 27 | 15% | 30% | |
| 28 | 9% | 15% | |
| 29 | 6% | 7% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |