Vlaams Belang
Voting Intentions
Last result: 13.8% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 15.7% | 15.1–15.9% | 14.9–16.0% | 14.7–16.0% | 14.3–16.0% |
| 16–23 September 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
16.9% | 15.1–15.9% | 14.9–16.0% | 14.7–16.0% | 14.3–16.0% |
| 27 May–3 June 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14.5% | 13.1–14.9% | 12.9–15.1% | 12.6–15.2% | 12.1–15.3% |
| 3–24 March 2025 | Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB De Standaard, RTBF and VRT |
13.0% | 11.8–12.3% | 11.7–12.4% | 11.6–12.4% | 11.3–12.4% |
| 4–11 March 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
16.3% | 14.4–15.2% | 14.2–15.3% | 14.0–15.3% | 13.6–15.3% |
| 18–21 November 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14.7% | 13.0–13.8% | 12.8–13.8% | 12.6–13.8% | 12.2–13.8% |
| 11–17 September 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14.6% | 12.9–13.7% | 12.7–13.7% | 12.5–13.7% | 12.1–13.7% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14.5–15.5% | 35% | 98% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 100% | 63% | Median |
| 16.5–17.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 26% | 0% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 1.5% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 20 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 26 | 24–28 | 23–29 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
| 16–23 September 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
26 | 24–28 | 23–29 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
| 27 May–3 June 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22 | 20–24 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 17–25 |
| 3–24 March 2025 | Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB De Standaard, RTBF and VRT |
20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 16–23 |
| 4–11 March 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
24 | 23–26 | 22–27 | 22–28 | 21–29 |
| 18–21 November 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
23 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| 11–17 September 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
23 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 24 | 18% | 95% | |
| 25 | 22% | 77% | |
| 26 | 25% | 55% | Median |
| 27 | 14% | 30% | |
| 28 | 8% | 16% | |
| 29 | 5% | 8% | |
| 30 | 3% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |