Vlaams Belang

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 13.8% (General Election of 9 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 12.4% 12.0–12.6% 11.8–12.6% 11.7–12.6% 11.4–12.6%
3–24 March 2025 Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB
De Standaard, RTBF and VRT		 13.0% 11.8–12.3% 11.7–12.4% 11.6–12.4% 11.3–12.4%
4–11 March 2025 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 16.3% 14.4–15.2% 14.2–15.3% 14.0–15.3% 13.6–15.3%
18–21 November 2024 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 14.7% 13.0–13.8% 12.8–13.8% 12.6–13.8% 12.2–13.8%
11–17 September 2024 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 14.6% 12.9–13.7% 12.7–13.7% 12.5–13.7% 12.1–13.7%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9.5–10.5% 0% 100%  
10.5–11.5% 1.2% 100%  
11.5–12.5% 82% 98.8% Median
12.5–13.5% 100% 17%  
13.5–14.5% 66% 0% Last Result
14.5–15.5% 71% 0%  
15.5–16.5% 100% 0%  
16.5–17.5% 100% 0%  
17.5–18.5% 24% 0%  
18.5–19.5% 2% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 20 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 22 18–26 18–26 18–27 16–28
3–24 March 2025 Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB
De Standaard, RTBF and VRT		 20 18–21 18–21 17–22 16–23
4–11 March 2025 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 24 23–26 22–27 22–28 21–29
18–21 November 2024 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 23 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–26
11–17 September 2024 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 23 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–26

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.5% 100%  
17 2% 99.5%  
18 8% 98%  
19 14% 90%  
20 20% 75% Last Result
21 4% 55%  
22 3% 51% Median
23 10% 48%  
24 16% 38%  
25 12% 22%  
26 7% 10%  
27 2% 3%  
28 1.1% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%