Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 22–23 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 41.0% 39.5–42.6% 39.1–43.0% 38.7–43.4% 38.0–44.2%
Labour Party 40.0% 30.0% 28.6–31.5% 28.2–31.9% 27.9–32.3% 27.2–33.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.0% 9.1–11.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.5% 8.2–12.0%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 5.0% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4%
Green Party 1.6% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4%
Brexit Party 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 351 331–372 326–374 324–377 317–384
Labour Party 262 195 182–214 179–222 177–224 170–229
Liberal Democrats 12 26 19–29 17–30 16–30 15–31
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Scottish National Party 35 50 45–53 41–54 41–56 38–57
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 5 5–9 5–10 4–10 3–11

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.7%  
315 0% 99.6%  
316 0.1% 99.6%  
317 0% 99.5% Last Result
318 0.1% 99.5%  
319 0% 99.4%  
320 0% 99.3%  
321 0.1% 99.3%  
322 0.4% 99.2%  
323 1.0% 98.8%  
324 1.5% 98%  
325 1.2% 96%  
326 2% 95% Majority
327 0.1% 94%  
328 0.1% 94%  
329 2% 93%  
330 1.3% 92%  
331 1.0% 91%  
332 0.1% 90%  
333 0.1% 90%  
334 0.2% 90%  
335 0.2% 89%  
336 0.1% 89%  
337 0.1% 89%  
338 0.3% 89%  
339 0.1% 89%  
340 1.5% 88%  
341 0.2% 87%  
342 13% 87%  
343 6% 74%  
344 1.0% 68%  
345 2% 67%  
346 3% 64%  
347 4% 62%  
348 2% 58%  
349 2% 56%  
350 5% 55%  
351 3% 50% Median
352 0.3% 47%  
353 0.7% 47%  
354 1.3% 46%  
355 2% 45%  
356 1.3% 44%  
357 0% 42%  
358 3% 42%  
359 0.1% 39%  
360 0.7% 39%  
361 0.8% 38%  
362 5% 38%  
363 0.7% 33%  
364 3% 32%  
365 1.3% 29%  
366 10% 28%  
367 0.7% 18%  
368 0.3% 17%  
369 0.5% 17%  
370 1.4% 16%  
371 1.1% 15%  
372 6% 14%  
373 0.4% 7%  
374 3% 7%  
375 0.9% 4%  
376 0.2% 3%  
377 0.9% 3%  
378 0.1% 2%  
379 0.7% 2%  
380 0.1% 2%  
381 0% 1.4%  
382 0.7% 1.4%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.1% 0.6%  
385 0% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0% 0.4%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.3%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0.1% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.8%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.8%  
167 0% 99.7%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.1% 99.6%  
170 0% 99.5%  
171 0.1% 99.5%  
172 0.3% 99.4%  
173 0.5% 99.1%  
174 0.2% 98.7%  
175 0.4% 98%  
176 0.2% 98%  
177 2% 98%  
178 0.9% 96%  
179 0.7% 95%  
180 0.2% 94%  
181 3% 94%  
182 18% 92%  
183 0.9% 74%  
184 2% 73%  
185 2% 71%  
186 3% 69%  
187 1.3% 66%  
188 1.1% 65%  
189 1.2% 64%  
190 0.7% 63%  
191 1.2% 62%  
192 1.0% 61%  
193 1.5% 60%  
194 6% 58%  
195 4% 52% Median
196 0.6% 48%  
197 1.1% 48%  
198 0.2% 47%  
199 6% 47%  
200 1.4% 41%  
201 0.9% 39%  
202 3% 39%  
203 0.6% 36%  
204 5% 35%  
205 12% 30%  
206 0.1% 18%  
207 3% 17%  
208 1.1% 14%  
209 0.2% 13%  
210 0.5% 13%  
211 1.0% 13%  
212 0.8% 12%  
213 0.9% 11%  
214 0.1% 10%  
215 2% 10%  
216 0.4% 8%  
217 0.1% 7%  
218 0.2% 7%  
219 0.1% 7%  
220 0.1% 7%  
221 0.8% 7%  
222 2% 6%  
223 0.5% 4%  
224 1.4% 3%  
225 0.3% 2%  
226 0.7% 2%  
227 0% 0.9%  
228 0.2% 0.8%  
229 0.3% 0.6%  
230 0% 0.4%  
231 0% 0.4%  
232 0.1% 0.3%  
233 0.1% 0.3%  
234 0% 0.2%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0.1% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 0.8% 99.6%  
16 3% 98.8%  
17 2% 96%  
18 1.2% 93%  
19 2% 92%  
20 12% 90%  
21 2% 78%  
22 3% 76%  
23 3% 72%  
24 5% 69%  
25 11% 64%  
26 7% 53% Median
27 9% 46%  
28 6% 36%  
29 25% 30%  
30 4% 5%  
31 0.8% 0.9%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 95% 99.8% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0% 99.8% Last Result
36 0% 99.8%  
37 0.1% 99.8%  
38 0.3% 99.6%  
39 0.3% 99.4%  
40 0% 99.1%  
41 5% 99.1%  
42 2% 94%  
43 1.3% 92%  
44 0% 90%  
45 6% 90%  
46 0.2% 84%  
47 4% 84%  
48 26% 80%  
49 0.2% 54%  
50 13% 54% Median
51 14% 41%  
52 16% 27%  
53 3% 11%  
54 4% 9%  
55 0.9% 4%  
56 2% 3%  
57 1.1% 1.3%  
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 72% 100% Last Result, Median
2 28% 28%  
3 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 3% 98% Last Result
5 48% 95% Median
6 10% 47%  
7 2% 37%  
8 16% 36%  
9 11% 20%  
10 6% 8%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 407 100% 389–428 380–429 379–431 375–438
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 401 100% 383–423 375–423 374–425 370–430
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 377 100% 357–394 352–397 350–399 343–406
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 356 99.4% 339–377 331–380 329–385 324–393
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 351 95% 331–372 326–374 324–377 317–384
Conservative Party 317 351 95% 331–372 326–374 324–377 317–384
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 279 0% 258–299 256–304 252–306 245–312
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 273 0% 253–291 250–299 245–301 237–306
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 252 0% 236–273 233–278 231–280 224–287
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 247 0% 230–265 226–272 224–275 215–280
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 229 0% 207–246 207–255 205–256 200–260
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 222 0% 202–241 201–250 199–251 192–254
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 202 0% 187–221 186–227 183–229 178–234
Labour Party 262 195 0% 182–214 179–222 177–224 170–229

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.7%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0% 99.7%  
373 0.1% 99.7%  
374 0% 99.6%  
375 0.1% 99.6%  
376 0.8% 99.5%  
377 0.2% 98.6%  
378 0.2% 98%  
379 3% 98%  
380 0.6% 95%  
381 0.2% 95%  
382 0.8% 95%  
383 0.1% 94%  
384 0.1% 94%  
385 0.1% 94%  
386 0.7% 94%  
387 0.7% 93%  
388 2% 92%  
389 0.1% 90%  
390 0.6% 90%  
391 0.2% 89%  
392 0.1% 89%  
393 0.6% 89%  
394 0.3% 88%  
395 12% 88%  
396 0.1% 76%  
397 4% 76%  
398 3% 72%  
399 4% 69%  
400 0.4% 65%  
401 1.1% 65%  
402 2% 64%  
403 0.6% 62%  
404 1.4% 61%  
405 4% 60%  
406 5% 56% Median
407 0.8% 51%  
408 3% 50%  
409 0.7% 47%  
410 0.2% 46%  
411 1.0% 46%  
412 0.3% 45%  
413 0.7% 45%  
414 1.5% 44%  
415 3% 43%  
416 2% 40%  
417 4% 38%  
418 0.6% 34%  
419 3% 34%  
420 2% 31%  
421 0.5% 29%  
422 0.6% 28%  
423 9% 27%  
424 4% 18%  
425 1.2% 15%  
426 0.3% 13%  
427 1.2% 13%  
428 6% 12%  
429 1.3% 5%  
430 0.7% 4%  
431 2% 4%  
432 0.3% 2%  
433 0.1% 1.3%  
434 0.1% 1.2%  
435 0.1% 1.2%  
436 0.1% 1.1%  
437 0% 1.0%  
438 0.5% 1.0%  
439 0.1% 0.4%  
440 0% 0.4%  
441 0% 0.3%  
442 0.1% 0.3%  
443 0% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0.1% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0.1% 100%  
362 0% 99.8%  
363 0% 99.8%  
364 0% 99.7%  
365 0% 99.7%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0% 99.7%  
368 0.1% 99.6%  
369 0% 99.6%  
370 0.2% 99.5%  
371 0.9% 99.3%  
372 0.2% 98%  
373 0.1% 98%  
374 3% 98%  
375 0.7% 95%  
376 0.2% 95%  
377 0.7% 94%  
378 0.2% 94%  
379 0.8% 94%  
380 0.8% 93%  
381 0.7% 92%  
382 1.1% 91%  
383 0.7% 90%  
384 0.1% 89%  
385 0.5% 89%  
386 0.1% 89%  
387 0.7% 89%  
388 0.6% 88%  
389 0.6% 88%  
390 12% 87%  
391 1.3% 75%  
392 4% 74%  
393 2% 70%  
394 3% 68%  
395 5% 65%  
396 0.6% 60%  
397 3% 60%  
398 0.6% 57%  
399 1.0% 56%  
400 4% 55%  
401 1.3% 51% Median
402 0.3% 49%  
403 2% 49%  
404 2% 47%  
405 0.8% 45%  
406 0.8% 44%  
407 1.4% 43%  
408 1.1% 42%  
409 2% 41%  
410 1.1% 39%  
411 4% 38%  
412 2% 34%  
413 0.8% 32%  
414 11% 31%  
415 1.2% 20%  
416 2% 19%  
417 1.2% 16%  
418 0.3% 15%  
419 2% 15%  
420 0.7% 13%  
421 1.1% 12%  
422 0.8% 11%  
423 7% 10%  
424 0.3% 3%  
425 2% 3%  
426 0.1% 1.2%  
427 0.1% 1.1%  
428 0.1% 1.1%  
429 0% 1.0%  
430 0.6% 1.0%  
431 0% 0.5%  
432 0% 0.4%  
433 0.1% 0.4%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.3%  
437 0.1% 0.3%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0.1% 0.1%  
447 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0.1% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.6%  
343 0.1% 99.6%  
344 0% 99.4%  
345 0.1% 99.4%  
346 0.2% 99.3%  
347 0.2% 99.1%  
348 0% 98.8%  
349 1.0% 98.8%  
350 0.8% 98%  
351 0.7% 97%  
352 1.4% 96%  
353 1.4% 95%  
354 0.8% 94%  
355 0.1% 93%  
356 1.3% 93%  
357 1.5% 91%  
358 0.1% 90%  
359 0.2% 90%  
360 1.0% 90%  
361 0.6% 89%  
362 0.2% 88%  
363 0.6% 88%  
364 0.7% 87%  
365 0.2% 86%  
366 0.4% 86%  
367 0% 86%  
368 0.7% 86%  
369 7% 85%  
370 2% 78%  
371 13% 76%  
372 0.7% 63%  
373 4% 62%  
374 1.2% 58%  
375 0.2% 57%  
376 4% 57%  
377 3% 53% Median
378 4% 50%  
379 4% 46%  
380 2% 42%  
381 0.6% 40%  
382 2% 39%  
383 1.1% 37%  
384 0.4% 36%  
385 1.3% 36%  
386 0.6% 35%  
387 0.2% 34%  
388 4% 34%  
389 1.2% 30%  
390 1.1% 29%  
391 11% 28%  
392 6% 17%  
393 1.1% 11%  
394 0.9% 10%  
395 1.2% 9%  
396 1.5% 8%  
397 2% 6%  
398 0.4% 4%  
399 2% 4%  
400 0% 2%  
401 0% 2%  
402 0.4% 2%  
403 0.1% 1.3%  
404 0.1% 1.1%  
405 0.3% 1.0%  
406 0.2% 0.7%  
407 0.1% 0.5%  
408 0% 0.4%  
409 0% 0.3%  
410 0% 0.3%  
411 0% 0.3%  
412 0% 0.3%  
413 0% 0.3%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0.1% 0.2%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
315 0% 100%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.8%  
319 0% 99.8%  
320 0% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
322 0% 99.6%  
323 0.1% 99.6%  
324 0.1% 99.5%  
325 0% 99.4%  
326 0.1% 99.4% Majority
327 0.3% 99.3%  
328 0.9% 98.9%  
329 2% 98%  
330 1.2% 96%  
331 0.6% 95%  
332 0.1% 95%  
333 0% 95%  
334 2% 95%  
335 0.5% 93%  
336 0.9% 92%  
337 0.7% 91%  
338 0.1% 91%  
339 1.1% 91%  
340 0% 89%  
341 0.2% 89%  
342 0.1% 89%  
343 0.2% 89%  
344 0.5% 89%  
345 0.7% 88%  
346 0.6% 88%  
347 12% 87%  
348 3% 75%  
349 0.2% 72%  
350 2% 72%  
351 3% 70%  
352 3% 66%  
353 4% 63%  
354 2% 59%  
355 0.6% 57%  
356 7% 56% Median
357 1.5% 50%  
358 0.4% 48%  
359 1.2% 48%  
360 0.5% 46%  
361 1.3% 46%  
362 0.3% 45%  
363 2% 44%  
364 3% 43%  
365 0.6% 39%  
366 0.1% 39%  
367 3% 39%  
368 0.6% 35%  
369 1.5% 35%  
370 1.2% 33%  
371 0.7% 32%  
372 3% 31%  
373 1.1% 29%  
374 1.2% 27%  
375 11% 26%  
376 0.1% 16%  
377 6% 16%  
378 0.4% 10%  
379 3% 9%  
380 2% 7%  
381 1.0% 5%  
382 0.1% 3%  
383 0.1% 3%  
384 0.6% 3%  
385 0.9% 3%  
386 0.1% 2%  
387 0.6% 2%  
388 0.2% 1.1%  
389 0% 0.9%  
390 0.2% 0.8%  
391 0.1% 0.6%  
392 0% 0.6%  
393 0% 0.5%  
394 0.1% 0.5%  
395 0% 0.4%  
396 0% 0.3%  
397 0% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.3%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.7%  
315 0% 99.6%  
316 0.1% 99.6%  
317 0% 99.5% Last Result
318 0.1% 99.5%  
319 0% 99.4%  
320 0% 99.3%  
321 0.1% 99.3%  
322 0.4% 99.2%  
323 1.0% 98.8%  
324 1.5% 98%  
325 1.2% 96%  
326 2% 95% Majority
327 0.1% 94%  
328 0.1% 94%  
329 2% 93%  
330 1.3% 92%  
331 1.0% 91%  
332 0.1% 90%  
333 0.1% 90%  
334 0.2% 90%  
335 0.2% 89%  
336 0.1% 89%  
337 0.1% 89%  
338 0.3% 89%  
339 0.1% 89%  
340 1.5% 88%  
341 0.2% 87%  
342 13% 87%  
343 6% 74%  
344 1.0% 68%  
345 2% 67%  
346 3% 64%  
347 4% 62%  
348 2% 58%  
349 2% 56%  
350 5% 55%  
351 3% 50% Median
352 0.3% 47%  
353 0.7% 47%  
354 1.3% 46%  
355 2% 45%  
356 1.3% 44%  
357 0% 42%  
358 3% 42%  
359 0.1% 39%  
360 0.7% 39%  
361 0.8% 38%  
362 5% 38%  
363 0.7% 33%  
364 3% 32%  
365 1.3% 29%  
366 10% 28%  
367 0.7% 18%  
368 0.3% 17%  
369 0.5% 17%  
370 1.4% 16%  
371 1.1% 15%  
372 6% 14%  
373 0.4% 7%  
374 3% 7%  
375 0.9% 4%  
376 0.2% 3%  
377 0.9% 3%  
378 0.1% 2%  
379 0.7% 2%  
380 0.1% 2%  
381 0% 1.4%  
382 0.7% 1.4%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.1% 0.6%  
385 0% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0% 0.4%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.3%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0.1% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.7%  
315 0% 99.6%  
316 0.1% 99.6%  
317 0% 99.5% Last Result
318 0.1% 99.5%  
319 0% 99.4%  
320 0% 99.3%  
321 0.1% 99.3%  
322 0.4% 99.2%  
323 1.0% 98.8%  
324 1.5% 98%  
325 1.2% 96%  
326 2% 95% Majority
327 0.1% 94%  
328 0.1% 94%  
329 2% 93%  
330 1.3% 92%  
331 1.0% 91%  
332 0.1% 90%  
333 0.1% 90%  
334 0.2% 90%  
335 0.2% 89%  
336 0.1% 89%  
337 0.1% 89%  
338 0.3% 89%  
339 0.1% 89%  
340 1.5% 88%  
341 0.2% 87%  
342 13% 87%  
343 6% 74%  
344 1.0% 68%  
345 2% 67%  
346 3% 64%  
347 4% 62%  
348 2% 58%  
349 2% 56%  
350 5% 55%  
351 3% 50% Median
352 0.3% 47%  
353 0.7% 47%  
354 1.3% 46%  
355 2% 45%  
356 1.3% 44%  
357 0% 42%  
358 3% 42%  
359 0.1% 39%  
360 0.7% 39%  
361 0.8% 38%  
362 5% 38%  
363 0.7% 33%  
364 3% 32%  
365 1.3% 29%  
366 10% 28%  
367 0.7% 18%  
368 0.3% 17%  
369 0.5% 17%  
370 1.4% 16%  
371 1.1% 15%  
372 6% 14%  
373 0.4% 7%  
374 3% 7%  
375 0.9% 4%  
376 0.2% 3%  
377 0.9% 3%  
378 0.1% 2%  
379 0.7% 2%  
380 0.1% 2%  
381 0% 1.4%  
382 0.7% 1.4%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.1% 0.6%  
385 0% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0% 0.4%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.3%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0.1% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0% 99.7%  
239 0% 99.7%  
240 0% 99.7%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.6%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0% 99.5%  
246 0% 99.5%  
247 0.1% 99.4%  
248 0.7% 99.4%  
249 0.1% 98.6%  
250 0.1% 98.5%  
251 0.6% 98%  
252 0.4% 98%  
253 0.6% 97%  
254 0.2% 97%  
255 0.9% 97%  
256 3% 96%  
257 0.3% 93%  
258 6% 93%  
259 2% 86%  
260 1.1% 85%  
261 0.1% 83%  
262 0.5% 83%  
263 0.9% 83%  
264 10% 82%  
265 2% 72%  
266 3% 71%  
267 2% 68%  
268 4% 66%  
269 0.8% 62%  
270 0.6% 61%  
271 0.2% 61%  
272 3% 61%  
273 0.2% 58%  
274 1.3% 58%  
275 2% 56%  
276 0.5% 54% Median
277 0.7% 54%  
278 1.1% 53%  
279 6% 52%  
280 0.5% 46%  
281 2% 45%  
282 3% 43%  
283 5% 41%  
284 2% 36%  
285 0.5% 34%  
286 2% 33%  
287 16% 31%  
288 1.4% 14%  
289 0.3% 13%  
290 1.3% 13%  
291 0.1% 12%  
292 0.3% 11%  
293 0.1% 11%  
294 0.3% 11%  
295 0.2% 11%  
296 0% 10%  
297 0.1% 10%  
298 0.1% 10%  
299 1.1% 10%  
300 2% 9%  
301 0.9% 7%  
302 0.1% 6%  
303 0.8% 6%  
304 0.8% 6%  
305 1.2% 5%  
306 1.5% 4%  
307 1.0% 2%  
308 0.4% 1.2%  
309 0.1% 0.8%  
310 0% 0.7%  
311 0.1% 0.6%  
312 0.1% 0.6%  
313 0% 0.5% Last Result
314 0.1% 0.5%  
315 0% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0% 99.7%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0% 99.6%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0% 99.5%  
238 0% 99.5%  
239 0.1% 99.4%  
240 0.2% 99.4%  
241 0.1% 99.2%  
242 0.2% 99.1%  
243 0.6% 98.9%  
244 0.3% 98%  
245 0.6% 98%  
246 0.6% 97%  
247 0.2% 97%  
248 0.1% 97%  
249 1.0% 96%  
250 2% 95%  
251 3% 93%  
252 0.4% 91%  
253 6% 90%  
254 0.8% 84%  
255 10% 84%  
256 0.9% 73%  
257 1.1% 72%  
258 3% 71%  
259 1.3% 68%  
260 0.7% 67%  
261 1.1% 66%  
262 0.6% 65%  
263 3% 65%  
264 0.1% 61%  
265 0.7% 61%  
266 3% 61%  
267 2% 57%  
268 0.1% 55%  
269 1.3% 55%  
270 1.2% 54%  
271 0.6% 53% Median
272 0.4% 52%  
273 6% 52%  
274 2% 46%  
275 2% 44%  
276 1.0% 42%  
277 5% 41%  
278 5% 36%  
279 3% 31%  
280 0.5% 29%  
281 2% 28%  
282 13% 27%  
283 0.4% 13%  
284 0.7% 13%  
285 0.5% 12%  
286 0.6% 12%  
287 0.2% 11%  
288 0.2% 11%  
289 0.1% 11%  
290 0.1% 11%  
291 1.1% 10%  
292 0.7% 9%  
293 0.1% 9%  
294 0.9% 9%  
295 1.3% 8%  
296 0.9% 6%  
297 0.1% 5%  
298 0.1% 5%  
299 0.7% 5%  
300 1.2% 5%  
301 2% 4%  
302 0.9% 2%  
303 0.3% 1.0%  
304 0.1% 0.7%  
305 0% 0.6%  
306 0.2% 0.6%  
307 0% 0.4%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0% 0.2% Last Result
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0.1% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0.1% 99.8%  
216 0.1% 99.7%  
217 0% 99.7%  
218 0% 99.7%  
219 0% 99.7%  
220 0% 99.7%  
221 0% 99.7%  
222 0% 99.7%  
223 0.1% 99.6%  
224 0.2% 99.5%  
225 0.3% 99.3%  
226 0% 99.0%  
227 0.2% 98.9%  
228 0.3% 98.7%  
229 0% 98%  
230 0.3% 98%  
231 2% 98%  
232 0.8% 96%  
233 2% 95%  
234 1.3% 93%  
235 1.3% 92%  
236 1.4% 91%  
237 0.7% 89%  
238 6% 89%  
239 11% 83%  
240 1.4% 72%  
241 1.3% 71%  
242 3% 69%  
243 0.2% 66%  
244 0.7% 66%  
245 1.3% 65%  
246 1.4% 64%  
247 0.2% 63%  
248 2% 62%  
249 1.2% 61%  
250 6% 60% Median
251 0.4% 54%  
252 5% 54%  
253 2% 49%  
254 4% 47%  
255 0.5% 43%  
256 3% 43%  
257 2% 40%  
258 13% 38%  
259 3% 25%  
260 3% 22%  
261 4% 19%  
262 0.7% 15%  
263 0.1% 14%  
264 0.3% 14%  
265 0.3% 14%  
266 0.4% 13%  
267 0.6% 13%  
268 0.3% 12%  
269 0.5% 12%  
270 1.2% 11%  
271 0.1% 10%  
272 0.1% 10%  
273 2% 10%  
274 0.8% 8%  
275 0.8% 7%  
276 0.1% 6%  
277 1.4% 6%  
278 1.4% 5%  
279 0.7% 4%  
280 0.7% 3%  
281 1.0% 2%  
282 0% 1.1%  
283 0.2% 1.1%  
284 0.3% 0.9%  
285 0.1% 0.7%  
286 0% 0.6%  
287 0.1% 0.6%  
288 0.1% 0.4%  
289 0.2% 0.4%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0.1% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.8%  
210 0.1% 99.8%  
211 0% 99.7%  
212 0% 99.7%  
213 0% 99.7%  
214 0% 99.6%  
215 0.2% 99.6%  
216 0.1% 99.4%  
217 0.3% 99.3%  
218 0.1% 99.0%  
219 0.1% 98.9%  
220 0.4% 98.8%  
221 0% 98%  
222 0.4% 98%  
223 0.2% 98%  
224 0.8% 98%  
225 0.6% 97%  
226 3% 96%  
227 0.7% 94%  
228 2% 93%  
229 0.3% 91%  
230 11% 90%  
231 2% 80%  
232 0.7% 78%  
233 7% 77%  
234 3% 71%  
235 0.9% 68%  
236 0.4% 67%  
237 0.2% 67%  
238 2% 66%  
239 2% 65%  
240 2% 63%  
241 0.1% 61%  
242 0.4% 60%  
243 0.2% 60%  
244 5% 60%  
245 2% 55% Median
246 2% 53%  
247 5% 51%  
248 0% 46%  
249 4% 46%  
250 0.8% 42%  
251 6% 41%  
252 2% 35%  
253 13% 33%  
254 2% 20%  
255 2% 17%  
256 0.9% 15%  
257 0.4% 14%  
258 0.1% 14%  
259 0.3% 14%  
260 0.5% 13%  
261 0.7% 13%  
262 1.0% 12%  
263 0.2% 11%  
264 0.6% 11%  
265 0.8% 10%  
266 0.1% 10%  
267 2% 9%  
268 0.8% 8%  
269 0.7% 7%  
270 0.1% 6%  
271 0.7% 6%  
272 1.3% 6%  
273 1.4% 4%  
274 0.1% 3%  
275 0.8% 3%  
276 1.0% 2%  
277 0% 1.0%  
278 0.1% 1.0%  
279 0.4% 0.9%  
280 0.1% 0.5%  
281 0.1% 0.4%  
282 0% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.3%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0.1% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
183 0% 100%  
184 0.1% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.8%  
191 0% 99.8%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0% 99.7%  
195 0% 99.7%  
196 0.1% 99.7%  
197 0.1% 99.7%  
198 0% 99.6%  
199 0% 99.6%  
200 0.6% 99.5%  
201 0.1% 99.0%  
202 0% 98.9%  
203 0.1% 98.9%  
204 0.1% 98.8%  
205 2% 98.8%  
206 0.1% 97%  
207 7% 97%  
208 0.9% 90%  
209 1.0% 89%  
210 0.7% 88%  
211 2% 87%  
212 0.3% 85%  
213 1.5% 85%  
214 2% 83%  
215 1.3% 81%  
216 12% 80%  
217 0.6% 68%  
218 3% 68%  
219 3% 65%  
220 0.9% 62%  
221 2% 61%  
222 2% 59%  
223 1.3% 57%  
224 0.1% 56%  
225 0.8% 56%  
226 2% 55% Median
227 1.5% 52%  
228 0.3% 51%  
229 5% 51%  
230 0.5% 45%  
231 0.8% 45%  
232 4% 44%  
233 0.5% 40%  
234 0.3% 40%  
235 6% 40%  
236 3% 33%  
237 0.4% 30%  
238 4% 30%  
239 12% 26%  
240 0.9% 14%  
241 0.5% 13%  
242 0.5% 12%  
243 0.7% 12%  
244 0.1% 11%  
245 0.5% 11%  
246 0.6% 11%  
247 0.1% 10%  
248 1.1% 10%  
249 1.3% 9%  
250 0.8% 7%  
251 0.2% 7%  
252 0.1% 6%  
253 0.7% 6%  
254 0.3% 6%  
255 0.6% 5%  
256 3% 5%  
257 0.1% 2%  
258 0.2% 2%  
259 0.9% 2%  
260 0.2% 0.7%  
261 0.1% 0.5%  
262 0% 0.4%  
263 0% 0.3%  
264 0.1% 0.3%  
265 0% 0.3%  
266 0% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0.2% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0.1% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.8%  
182 0% 99.8%  
183 0% 99.8%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0% 99.8%  
186 0% 99.8%  
187 0% 99.8%  
188 0.1% 99.8%  
189 0% 99.7%  
190 0% 99.7%  
191 0.1% 99.6%  
192 0.5% 99.6%  
193 0.1% 99.0%  
194 0.1% 99.0%  
195 0.1% 98.9%  
196 0.1% 98.8%  
197 0.3% 98.8%  
198 0.1% 98%  
199 2% 98%  
200 0.7% 96%  
201 1.2% 96%  
202 6% 94%  
203 1.3% 88%  
204 0.4% 87%  
205 1.1% 86%  
206 4% 85%  
207 9% 81%  
208 1.0% 73%  
209 0.6% 72%  
210 2% 71%  
211 3% 69%  
212 0.3% 66%  
213 4% 65%  
214 2% 61%  
215 2% 59%  
216 1.5% 57%  
217 0.8% 56%  
218 0.9% 55%  
219 0.2% 54%  
220 0.2% 54%  
221 1.5% 53% Median
222 2% 52%  
223 5% 50%  
224 0.9% 45%  
225 5% 44%  
226 0.6% 39%  
227 2% 38%  
228 0.3% 36%  
229 0.8% 36%  
230 3% 35%  
231 3% 32%  
232 1.3% 29%  
233 4% 28%  
234 11% 24%  
235 1.1% 13%  
236 0.3% 12%  
237 0.6% 12%  
238 0.1% 11%  
239 0.2% 11%  
240 0.6% 11%  
241 1.3% 10%  
242 2% 9%  
243 0% 7%  
244 0.7% 7%  
245 0.1% 6%  
246 0.1% 6%  
247 0.2% 6%  
248 0.8% 6%  
249 0.1% 5%  
250 0.6% 5%  
251 3% 5%  
252 0.2% 2%  
253 0.2% 2%  
254 0.9% 1.4%  
255 0.1% 0.5%  
256 0.1% 0.4%  
257 0% 0.3%  
258 0% 0.3%  
259 0.1% 0.3%  
260 0.1% 0.3%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0.1% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0.1% 100%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.8%  
170 0% 99.8%  
171 0% 99.8%  
172 0% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.8%  
174 0.1% 99.7%  
175 0% 99.6%  
176 0% 99.6%  
177 0% 99.6%  
178 0.1% 99.5%  
179 0% 99.5%  
180 0.3% 99.5%  
181 0.4% 99.2%  
182 0.1% 98.8%  
183 2% 98.6%  
184 0.3% 97%  
185 0.6% 97%  
186 1.4% 96%  
187 6% 95%  
188 1.4% 89%  
189 3% 87%  
190 4% 84%  
191 12% 80%  
192 0.7% 68%  
193 1.3% 68%  
194 2% 66%  
195 1.3% 65%  
196 0.3% 64%  
197 1.0% 63%  
198 2% 62%  
199 0.6% 60%  
200 9% 60% Median
201 0.8% 51%  
202 3% 50%  
203 0.1% 47%  
204 2% 47%  
205 0.9% 45%  
206 2% 44%  
207 1.3% 42%  
208 0.4% 41%  
209 10% 41%  
210 12% 31%  
211 1.3% 19%  
212 3% 18%  
213 0.4% 15%  
214 0.3% 14%  
215 0.5% 14%  
216 0.3% 13%  
217 0.9% 13%  
218 0.5% 12%  
219 1.0% 12%  
220 0.1% 11%  
221 2% 11%  
222 0.1% 9%  
223 1.4% 9%  
224 0.1% 7%  
225 0% 7%  
226 0.8% 7%  
227 2% 7%  
228 0.6% 4%  
229 2% 4%  
230 0.2% 2%  
231 0.7% 2%  
232 0% 1.1%  
233 0.4% 1.1%  
234 0.3% 0.7%  
235 0% 0.4%  
236 0.1% 0.4%  
237 0% 0.3%  
238 0% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.3%  
240 0% 0.3%  
241 0.2% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.8%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.8%  
167 0% 99.7%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.1% 99.6%  
170 0% 99.5%  
171 0.1% 99.5%  
172 0.3% 99.4%  
173 0.5% 99.1%  
174 0.2% 98.7%  
175 0.4% 98%  
176 0.2% 98%  
177 2% 98%  
178 0.9% 96%  
179 0.7% 95%  
180 0.2% 94%  
181 3% 94%  
182 18% 92%  
183 0.9% 74%  
184 2% 73%  
185 2% 71%  
186 3% 69%  
187 1.3% 66%  
188 1.1% 65%  
189 1.2% 64%  
190 0.7% 63%  
191 1.2% 62%  
192 1.0% 61%  
193 1.5% 60%  
194 6% 58%  
195 4% 52% Median
196 0.6% 48%  
197 1.1% 48%  
198 0.2% 47%  
199 6% 47%  
200 1.4% 41%  
201 0.9% 39%  
202 3% 39%  
203 0.6% 36%  
204 5% 35%  
205 12% 30%  
206 0.1% 18%  
207 3% 17%  
208 1.1% 14%  
209 0.2% 13%  
210 0.5% 13%  
211 1.0% 13%  
212 0.8% 12%  
213 0.9% 11%  
214 0.1% 10%  
215 2% 10%  
216 0.4% 8%  
217 0.1% 7%  
218 0.2% 7%  
219 0.1% 7%  
220 0.1% 7%  
221 0.8% 7%  
222 2% 6%  
223 0.5% 4%  
224 1.4% 3%  
225 0.3% 2%  
226 0.7% 2%  
227 0% 0.9%  
228 0.2% 0.8%  
229 0.3% 0.6%  
230 0% 0.4%  
231 0% 0.4%  
232 0.1% 0.3%  
233 0.1% 0.3%  
234 0% 0.2%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0.1% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations