Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 14–15 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 35.7% 34.2–37.2% 33.9–37.6% 33.5–38.0% 32.8–38.7%
Labour Party 40.0% 31.6% 30.2–33.1% 29.8–33.5% 29.5–33.8% 28.8–34.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 12.2% 11.3–13.3% 11.0–13.6% 10.8–13.9% 10.3–14.4%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 6.2% 5.5–7.0% 5.3–7.2% 5.1–7.4% 4.8–7.8%
Green Party 1.6% 4.1% 3.6–4.8% 3.4–5.0% 3.3–5.1% 3.0–5.5%
Brexit Party 0.0% 4.1% 3.6–4.8% 3.4–5.0% 3.3–5.1% 3.0–5.5%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.1% 2.6–3.7% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 309 285–332 273–332 264–334 254–347
Labour Party 262 232 215–257 212–267 212–275 202–285
Liberal Democrats 12 35 31–40 30–42 30–43 28–45
UK Independence Party 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Green Party 1 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 48 37–51 33–51 22–53 8–53
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–8 4–8 4–9 3–11

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0.1% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.2% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.5%  
253 0% 99.5%  
254 0% 99.5%  
255 0% 99.5%  
256 0.1% 99.5%  
257 0.1% 99.4%  
258 0% 99.4%  
259 0% 99.4%  
260 0.2% 99.3%  
261 0.9% 99.2%  
262 0% 98%  
263 0% 98%  
264 1.1% 98%  
265 0% 97%  
266 0.1% 97%  
267 0% 97%  
268 1.3% 97%  
269 0.2% 96%  
270 0% 95%  
271 0.1% 95%  
272 0% 95%  
273 0.7% 95%  
274 0% 95%  
275 0.1% 95%  
276 0.1% 94%  
277 0.2% 94%  
278 0.1% 94%  
279 0% 94%  
280 0.4% 94%  
281 0% 94%  
282 0% 94%  
283 3% 94%  
284 0.4% 91%  
285 2% 91%  
286 2% 88%  
287 0.3% 87%  
288 0.1% 86%  
289 0.5% 86%  
290 0.2% 86%  
291 2% 86%  
292 1.4% 83%  
293 0.1% 82%  
294 1.3% 82%  
295 0.3% 81%  
296 0.8% 80%  
297 1.1% 80%  
298 0.3% 79%  
299 2% 78%  
300 0.8% 76%  
301 0.6% 76%  
302 5% 75%  
303 7% 70%  
304 3% 63%  
305 0.3% 60%  
306 2% 60%  
307 0.3% 57%  
308 3% 57%  
309 5% 54% Median
310 2% 49%  
311 0.9% 48%  
312 0.1% 47%  
313 7% 47%  
314 1.0% 40%  
315 2% 39%  
316 0.7% 36%  
317 0.4% 36% Last Result
318 1.1% 35%  
319 1.5% 34%  
320 4% 33%  
321 4% 29%  
322 3% 25%  
323 1.3% 22%  
324 0.1% 21%  
325 0.5% 21%  
326 1.0% 20% Majority
327 3% 19%  
328 0.2% 16%  
329 0.2% 16%  
330 0% 16%  
331 0.7% 16%  
332 12% 15%  
333 0.4% 3%  
334 0.7% 3%  
335 0.1% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.2% 1.5%  
338 0.2% 1.3%  
339 0% 1.1%  
340 0% 1.1%  
341 0.1% 1.0%  
342 0.3% 0.9%  
343 0% 0.7%  
344 0% 0.6%  
345 0% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.6%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.4%  
350 0% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0.1% 99.8%  
200 0% 99.7%  
201 0.1% 99.7%  
202 0.1% 99.6%  
203 0.1% 99.5%  
204 0.2% 99.4%  
205 0.3% 99.2%  
206 0.2% 99.0%  
207 0.4% 98.8%  
208 0.1% 98%  
209 0.1% 98%  
210 0.1% 98%  
211 0.2% 98%  
212 7% 98%  
213 0.3% 91%  
214 0.2% 91%  
215 1.2% 90%  
216 0.7% 89%  
217 1.3% 89%  
218 2% 87%  
219 5% 86%  
220 0.4% 81%  
221 2% 80%  
222 7% 78%  
223 3% 72%  
224 1.3% 68%  
225 6% 67%  
226 1.2% 61%  
227 4% 60%  
228 0.4% 56%  
229 4% 56%  
230 0.8% 52%  
231 0.8% 52%  
232 6% 51% Median
233 2% 45%  
234 6% 43%  
235 2% 36%  
236 1.0% 35%  
237 2% 34%  
238 0.3% 32%  
239 0.5% 31%  
240 0.7% 31%  
241 6% 30%  
242 0.3% 24%  
243 2% 24%  
244 0.2% 22%  
245 0.1% 22%  
246 0.1% 21%  
247 2% 21%  
248 1.2% 19%  
249 2% 18%  
250 0.3% 17%  
251 2% 16%  
252 0.3% 15%  
253 2% 14%  
254 0.1% 12%  
255 0.3% 12%  
256 0.1% 12%  
257 3% 12%  
258 0.1% 9%  
259 0.8% 9%  
260 0.1% 8%  
261 0.4% 8%  
262 0% 7% Last Result
263 0.1% 7%  
264 2% 7%  
265 0.1% 5%  
266 0.1% 5%  
267 0.9% 5%  
268 0% 4%  
269 0% 4%  
270 0% 4%  
271 0.1% 4%  
272 0% 4%  
273 0% 4%  
274 0.5% 4%  
275 2% 3%  
276 0% 1.3%  
277 0.2% 1.3%  
278 0% 1.1%  
279 0.1% 1.1%  
280 0.3% 1.0%  
281 0% 0.8%  
282 0% 0.7%  
283 0% 0.7%  
284 0% 0.7%  
285 0.4% 0.7%  
286 0% 0.3%  
287 0% 0.3%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.3% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.6%  
29 0.7% 99.3%  
30 8% 98.6%  
31 5% 90%  
32 12% 85%  
33 3% 74%  
34 11% 70%  
35 13% 59% Median
36 13% 46%  
37 7% 32%  
38 5% 25%  
39 5% 19%  
40 6% 14%  
41 3% 8%  
42 0.5% 5%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.0% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.7%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 49% 99.6%  
2 50% 50% Median
3 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 48% 100% Last Result
2 50% 52% Median
3 1.4% 2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0.2% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.6%  
8 0.1% 99.6%  
9 0% 99.5%  
10 0% 99.5%  
11 0% 99.5%  
12 0% 99.5%  
13 0.2% 99.5%  
14 0.1% 99.3%  
15 0% 99.3%  
16 0% 99.2%  
17 0% 99.2%  
18 0.1% 99.2%  
19 0% 99.1%  
20 0.8% 99.1%  
21 0% 98%  
22 1.0% 98%  
23 0.3% 97%  
24 0.1% 97%  
25 0.1% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0.1% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0.1% 97%  
31 0.6% 97%  
32 0.2% 96%  
33 1.3% 96%  
34 0.2% 94%  
35 3% 94% Last Result
36 0.5% 91%  
37 0.8% 90%  
38 1.0% 90%  
39 5% 89%  
40 1.0% 84%  
41 17% 83%  
42 0.4% 66%  
43 0.1% 65%  
44 0.1% 65%  
45 7% 65%  
46 0% 58%  
47 4% 58%  
48 13% 54% Median
49 0% 41%  
50 18% 41%  
51 18% 23%  
52 0.3% 5%  
53 4% 4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.4% 100%  
4 14% 98.6% Last Result
5 43% 84% Median
6 2% 42%  
7 5% 40%  
8 31% 35%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.7% 2%  
11 0.7% 0.9%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 364 95% 333–380 325–385 320–385 305–393
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 357 91% 328–373 318–380 315–380 300–387
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 345 88% 325–364 310–365 299–366 294–380
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 319 30% 297–344 297–355 295–365 283–375
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 313 21% 292–339 292–352 289–360 275–369
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 316 34% 291–337 276–337 269–339 260–355
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 309 20% 285–332 273–332 264–334 254–347
Conservative Party 317 309 20% 285–332 273–332 264–334 254–347
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 284 3% 265–304 265–318 262–330 250–335
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 278 2% 260–299 260–314 256–325 243–330
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 272 1.0% 256–301 249–310 249–314 242–330
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 265 0.3% 250–296 244–304 244–309 235–325
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 237 0% 220–262 217–272 217–280 210–290
Labour Party 262 232 0% 215–257 212–267 212–275 202–285

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.2% 99.6%  
306 0.3% 99.4%  
307 0% 99.1%  
308 0.1% 99.1%  
309 0% 99.0%  
310 0% 99.0%  
311 0% 99.0%  
312 0% 99.0%  
313 0% 99.0%  
314 0% 98.9%  
315 0.1% 98.9%  
316 1.1% 98.8%  
317 0.1% 98%  
318 0% 98%  
319 0.1% 98%  
320 1.1% 98%  
321 0% 96%  
322 0.2% 96%  
323 0% 96%  
324 1.2% 96%  
325 0.1% 95%  
326 1.4% 95% Majority
327 0.6% 94%  
328 0% 93%  
329 0% 93%  
330 0.5% 93%  
331 0% 92%  
332 2% 92%  
333 3% 90%  
334 0.1% 87%  
335 0.1% 87%  
336 0.5% 87%  
337 0.8% 87%  
338 0.3% 86%  
339 0% 86%  
340 0.1% 86%  
341 0.1% 86%  
342 2% 85%  
343 0.1% 83%  
344 2% 83%  
345 0.2% 81%  
346 0.1% 81%  
347 2% 81%  
348 0.3% 79%  
349 3% 79%  
350 0.4% 76%  
351 0.4% 76%  
352 7% 75%  
353 0.2% 69%  
354 2% 68%  
355 0.1% 67%  
356 0.6% 66% Last Result
357 4% 66%  
358 1.0% 62%  
359 3% 61%  
360 3% 58%  
361 0.7% 55%  
362 0.6% 54% Median
363 1.4% 53%  
364 9% 52%  
365 1.1% 43%  
366 0.6% 42%  
367 5% 41%  
368 0.5% 36%  
369 4% 36%  
370 0.2% 32%  
371 3% 32%  
372 1.0% 28%  
373 2% 27%  
374 3% 25%  
375 1.2% 23%  
376 1.0% 21%  
377 0.6% 20%  
378 8% 20%  
379 0.2% 12%  
380 2% 12%  
381 0.2% 10%  
382 0.1% 9%  
383 0% 9%  
384 0.2% 9%  
385 7% 9%  
386 0.6% 2%  
387 0% 1.4%  
388 0.1% 1.4%  
389 0% 1.2%  
390 0% 1.2%  
391 0.1% 1.2%  
392 0.2% 1.1%  
393 0.5% 0.9%  
394 0% 0.4%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0.1% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0.2% 99.8%  
300 0.2% 99.6%  
301 0.2% 99.4%  
302 0% 99.2%  
303 0.1% 99.1%  
304 0% 99.0%  
305 0% 99.0%  
306 0% 99.0%  
307 0.1% 99.0%  
308 0.1% 98.9%  
309 0% 98.8%  
310 0% 98.8%  
311 1.1% 98.8%  
312 0% 98%  
313 0.1% 98%  
314 0.1% 98%  
315 1.1% 98%  
316 0% 96%  
317 0.1% 96%  
318 1.4% 96%  
319 0.6% 95%  
320 0.1% 94%  
321 0.7% 94%  
322 0.6% 94%  
323 0.1% 93%  
324 2% 93%  
325 0.1% 91%  
326 0.5% 91% Majority
327 0% 90%  
328 3% 90%  
329 0.1% 87%  
330 0.1% 87%  
331 0.1% 87%  
332 1.0% 87%  
333 0.2% 86%  
334 0.4% 86%  
335 0.1% 85%  
336 0.5% 85%  
337 2% 85%  
338 0.4% 83%  
339 2% 82%  
340 0.1% 81%  
341 0.2% 81%  
342 0.4% 80%  
343 2% 80%  
344 7% 78%  
345 2% 71%  
346 0.2% 69%  
347 0.2% 69%  
348 0.3% 68%  
349 0.3% 68%  
350 2% 68%  
351 0.7% 66%  
352 2% 65% Last Result
353 5% 63%  
354 3% 57%  
355 0.7% 54%  
356 3% 53%  
357 0.5% 50% Median
358 0.8% 50%  
359 4% 49%  
360 4% 45%  
361 4% 41%  
362 4% 37%  
363 4% 33%  
364 0.9% 30%  
365 3% 29%  
366 2% 26%  
367 2% 24%  
368 0.3% 22%  
369 2% 22%  
370 0.8% 20%  
371 0.9% 19%  
372 3% 18%  
373 6% 15%  
374 0.2% 9%  
375 0% 9%  
376 0.1% 9%  
377 0% 9%  
378 0.5% 9%  
379 0.3% 9%  
380 7% 8%  
381 0% 1.4%  
382 0.1% 1.3%  
383 0% 1.3%  
384 0.4% 1.2%  
385 0% 0.8%  
386 0.3% 0.8%  
387 0.2% 0.5%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0.1% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.2% 99.6%  
295 0% 99.3%  
296 0% 99.3%  
297 0.1% 99.3%  
298 1.1% 99.2%  
299 0.9% 98%  
300 0% 97%  
301 0% 97%  
302 0% 97%  
303 0% 97%  
304 0.2% 97%  
305 0.1% 97%  
306 0.1% 97%  
307 1.3% 97%  
308 0% 95%  
309 0% 95%  
310 0.7% 95%  
311 0% 95%  
312 0.2% 95%  
313 0.1% 95%  
314 0.1% 94%  
315 0.1% 94%  
316 0.1% 94%  
317 0.4% 94%  
318 0% 94%  
319 0% 94%  
320 0.3% 94%  
321 0.3% 93%  
322 3% 93%  
323 0.2% 90%  
324 0.1% 90%  
325 2% 90%  
326 0% 88% Majority
327 2% 88%  
328 5% 86%  
329 0.5% 81% Last Result
330 0.1% 81%  
331 0.2% 81%  
332 0.4% 80%  
333 0.2% 80%  
334 0.2% 80%  
335 0.2% 80%  
336 0.6% 79%  
337 4% 79%  
338 6% 75%  
339 5% 69%  
340 1.3% 63%  
341 6% 62%  
342 0.6% 56%  
343 2% 56%  
344 0.3% 54% Median
345 4% 54%  
346 0.1% 50%  
347 3% 50%  
348 6% 47%  
349 2% 41%  
350 0.8% 39%  
351 0.4% 38%  
352 6% 38%  
353 1.3% 32%  
354 4% 31%  
355 1.4% 27%  
356 1.3% 25%  
357 3% 24%  
358 0.4% 21%  
359 0.2% 21%  
360 0.5% 21%  
361 0.1% 20%  
362 6% 20%  
363 0.4% 14%  
364 7% 14%  
365 4% 7%  
366 0.9% 3%  
367 0.4% 2%  
368 0% 2%  
369 0.1% 2%  
370 0% 1.4%  
371 0.3% 1.4%  
372 0% 1.1%  
373 0.1% 1.1%  
374 0.1% 1.0%  
375 0.1% 0.9%  
376 0.1% 0.8%  
377 0.1% 0.7%  
378 0.1% 0.7%  
379 0% 0.6%  
380 0.1% 0.5%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0.1% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0% 99.6%  
281 0% 99.6%  
282 0% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 0% 99.4%  
285 0.1% 99.4%  
286 0.2% 99.3%  
287 0% 99.1%  
288 0.1% 99.1%  
289 0.1% 99.1%  
290 0% 98.9%  
291 0.2% 98.9%  
292 0.3% 98.7%  
293 0.1% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 1.0% 98%  
296 0.1% 97%  
297 8% 97%  
298 5% 89%  
299 0.1% 84%  
300 0.1% 84%  
301 0.2% 84%  
302 0.2% 84%  
303 4% 84%  
304 0% 80%  
305 0.7% 80%  
306 2% 79%  
307 4% 77%  
308 0.1% 73%  
309 3% 73%  
310 6% 71%  
311 0.3% 65%  
312 0.3% 64%  
313 0.1% 64% Last Result
314 3% 64%  
315 3% 61%  
316 4% 58%  
317 1.1% 54%  
318 0.7% 53%  
319 3% 52%  
320 3% 49% Median
321 3% 46%  
322 1.1% 43%  
323 0.7% 42%  
324 4% 41%  
325 7% 37%  
326 0.2% 30% Majority
327 4% 30%  
328 0.9% 25%  
329 2% 24%  
330 0.7% 22%  
331 0.5% 22%  
332 1.3% 21%  
333 0.5% 20%  
334 0.4% 19%  
335 0.3% 19%  
336 0.9% 19%  
337 1.2% 18%  
338 2% 17%  
339 0.7% 14%  
340 0% 14%  
341 0.1% 14%  
342 0.3% 14%  
343 2% 13%  
344 2% 11%  
345 0% 9%  
346 3% 9%  
347 0.1% 6%  
348 0.1% 6%  
349 0.1% 6%  
350 0.3% 6%  
351 0.1% 6%  
352 0.1% 6%  
353 0.1% 6%  
354 0% 6%  
355 0.8% 6%  
356 0.2% 5%  
357 0% 5%  
358 0% 5%  
359 0% 5%  
360 0.2% 5%  
361 1.3% 4%  
362 0% 3%  
363 0.1% 3%  
364 0.1% 3%  
365 1.1% 3%  
366 0% 2%  
367 0% 2%  
368 0.9% 2%  
369 0.2% 0.8%  
370 0% 0.7%  
371 0% 0.6%  
372 0% 0.6%  
373 0.1% 0.6%  
374 0% 0.5%  
375 0% 0.5%  
376 0% 0.5%  
377 0% 0.5%  
378 0.2% 0.5%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0.1% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.2% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.7%  
268 0% 99.7%  
269 0% 99.7%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0% 99.6%  
273 0% 99.6%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.1% 99.5%  
276 0% 99.4%  
277 0% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0% 99.3%  
280 0.3% 99.3%  
281 0% 99.0%  
282 0.1% 99.0%  
283 0.1% 98.9%  
284 0% 98.8%  
285 0.4% 98.7%  
286 0% 98%  
287 0.3% 98%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0.9% 98%  
290 0.7% 97%  
291 0.2% 96%  
292 7% 96%  
293 5% 89%  
294 0.3% 84%  
295 0.1% 84%  
296 0.2% 84%  
297 0.2% 84%  
298 5% 83%  
299 3% 79%  
300 0.1% 76%  
301 4% 76%  
302 5% 71%  
303 0.5% 67%  
304 0.6% 66%  
305 1.0% 66%  
306 3% 65%  
307 0.2% 62%  
308 3% 62%  
309 1.2% 59% Last Result
310 3% 58%  
311 1.5% 55%  
312 1.1% 54%  
313 3% 52%  
314 2% 49%  
315 2% 47% Median
316 3% 45%  
317 5% 42%  
318 0.3% 36%  
319 4% 36%  
320 6% 32%  
321 0.4% 26%  
322 0.1% 26%  
323 1.3% 26%  
324 1.1% 24%  
325 2% 23%  
326 0.5% 21% Majority
327 0.8% 21%  
328 0.1% 20%  
329 0.7% 20%  
330 2% 19%  
331 1.4% 17%  
332 0.1% 16%  
333 2% 16%  
334 0.1% 14%  
335 2% 13%  
336 0.2% 11%  
337 0.1% 11%  
338 0.1% 11%  
339 2% 11%  
340 0.3% 9%  
341 3% 9%  
342 0.1% 6%  
343 0% 6%  
344 0.1% 6%  
345 0.2% 6%  
346 0.1% 6%  
347 0.2% 6%  
348 0% 6%  
349 0.1% 6%  
350 0.1% 5%  
351 0% 5%  
352 0.8% 5%  
353 1.3% 5%  
354 0% 3%  
355 0.2% 3%  
356 0% 3%  
357 0% 3%  
358 0.1% 3%  
359 0% 3%  
360 1.1% 3%  
361 0.1% 2%  
362 0% 2%  
363 0.9% 2%  
364 0.2% 0.8%  
365 0% 0.6%  
366 0% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.6%  
368 0% 0.5%  
369 0% 0.5%  
370 0% 0.5%  
371 0% 0.5%  
372 0% 0.5%  
373 0.2% 0.5%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0.1% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0.2% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.5%  
258 0% 99.5%  
259 0% 99.5%  
260 0% 99.5%  
261 0% 99.5%  
262 0.1% 99.5%  
263 0% 99.4%  
264 0% 99.4%  
265 0.2% 99.4%  
266 0.9% 99.2%  
267 0.1% 98%  
268 0% 98%  
269 1.1% 98%  
270 0% 97%  
271 0.1% 97%  
272 0% 97%  
273 0% 97%  
274 0.2% 97%  
275 0.1% 97%  
276 2% 97%  
277 0% 95%  
278 0% 95%  
279 0% 95%  
280 0.1% 95%  
281 0.1% 94%  
282 0% 94%  
283 0.2% 94%  
284 0% 94%  
285 0.3% 94%  
286 0.1% 94%  
287 0% 94%  
288 3% 94%  
289 0% 91%  
290 0% 91%  
291 2% 91%  
292 0.1% 89%  
293 2% 89%  
294 0% 87%  
295 0.1% 87%  
296 2% 86%  
297 0.8% 84%  
298 0.4% 83%  
299 2% 83%  
300 0.5% 81%  
301 0.3% 80%  
302 0.6% 80%  
303 2% 79%  
304 0.4% 77%  
305 0.8% 77%  
306 2% 76%  
307 0.2% 74%  
308 2% 74%  
309 6% 71%  
310 1.2% 66%  
311 6% 65%  
312 0.7% 59%  
313 3% 58%  
314 3% 55% Median
315 0.3% 51%  
316 3% 51%  
317 1.3% 48%  
318 4% 46%  
319 0.3% 43%  
320 0.8% 43%  
321 4% 42% Last Result
322 0.2% 38%  
323 3% 38%  
324 0.4% 35%  
325 0.6% 34%  
326 0.3% 34% Majority
327 2% 33%  
328 5% 32%  
329 4% 27%  
330 1.2% 23%  
331 2% 21%  
332 4% 20%  
333 0.1% 16%  
334 0.3% 16%  
335 0.1% 16%  
336 0.1% 16%  
337 12% 16%  
338 0% 4%  
339 1.5% 4%  
340 0.1% 2%  
341 0.5% 2%  
342 0.1% 2%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.2% 1.4%  
345 0.1% 1.3%  
346 0.2% 1.2%  
347 0% 1.0%  
348 0.1% 1.0%  
349 0% 0.9%  
350 0.3% 0.9%  
351 0% 0.6%  
352 0% 0.6%  
353 0% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.6%  
355 0.1% 0.5%  
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0% 0.4%  
358 0% 0.4%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.3%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0.2% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0.1% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.2% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.5%  
253 0% 99.5%  
254 0% 99.5%  
255 0% 99.5%  
256 0.1% 99.5%  
257 0.1% 99.4%  
258 0% 99.4%  
259 0% 99.4%  
260 0.2% 99.3%  
261 0.9% 99.2%  
262 0% 98%  
263 0% 98%  
264 1.1% 98%  
265 0% 97%  
266 0.1% 97%  
267 0% 97%  
268 1.3% 97%  
269 0.2% 96%  
270 0% 95%  
271 0.1% 95%  
272 0% 95%  
273 0.7% 95%  
274 0% 95%  
275 0.1% 95%  
276 0.1% 94%  
277 0.1% 94%  
278 0.1% 94%  
279 0% 94%  
280 0.4% 94%  
281 0% 94%  
282 0.1% 94%  
283 3% 94%  
284 0.4% 91%  
285 2% 91%  
286 2% 88%  
287 0.3% 87%  
288 0.1% 86%  
289 0.5% 86%  
290 0.2% 86%  
291 2% 86%  
292 1.4% 83%  
293 0.1% 82%  
294 1.3% 82%  
295 0.3% 81%  
296 0.8% 80%  
297 1.1% 80%  
298 0.3% 79%  
299 2% 78%  
300 0.8% 76%  
301 0.5% 76%  
302 5% 75%  
303 7% 70%  
304 3% 63%  
305 0.3% 60%  
306 2% 60%  
307 0.3% 57%  
308 3% 57%  
309 5% 54% Median
310 2% 49%  
311 0.9% 48%  
312 0.2% 47%  
313 7% 47%  
314 1.0% 40%  
315 2% 39%  
316 0.7% 37%  
317 0.4% 36% Last Result
318 1.0% 35%  
319 2% 34%  
320 4% 33%  
321 4% 29%  
322 3% 25%  
323 1.3% 22%  
324 0.1% 21%  
325 0.5% 21%  
326 1.0% 20% Majority
327 3% 19%  
328 0.2% 16%  
329 0.2% 16%  
330 0% 16%  
331 0.7% 16%  
332 12% 15%  
333 0.4% 3%  
334 0.7% 3%  
335 0.1% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.2% 1.5%  
338 0.2% 1.3%  
339 0% 1.1%  
340 0% 1.1%  
341 0.1% 1.0%  
342 0.3% 0.9%  
343 0% 0.7%  
344 0% 0.6%  
345 0% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.6%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.4%  
350 0% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0.1% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.2% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.5%  
253 0% 99.5%  
254 0% 99.5%  
255 0% 99.5%  
256 0.1% 99.5%  
257 0.1% 99.4%  
258 0% 99.4%  
259 0% 99.4%  
260 0.2% 99.3%  
261 0.9% 99.2%  
262 0% 98%  
263 0% 98%  
264 1.1% 98%  
265 0% 97%  
266 0.1% 97%  
267 0% 97%  
268 1.3% 97%  
269 0.2% 96%  
270 0% 95%  
271 0.1% 95%  
272 0% 95%  
273 0.7% 95%  
274 0% 95%  
275 0.1% 95%  
276 0.1% 94%  
277 0.2% 94%  
278 0.1% 94%  
279 0% 94%  
280 0.4% 94%  
281 0% 94%  
282 0% 94%  
283 3% 94%  
284 0.4% 91%  
285 2% 91%  
286 2% 88%  
287 0.3% 87%  
288 0.1% 86%  
289 0.5% 86%  
290 0.2% 86%  
291 2% 86%  
292 1.4% 83%  
293 0.1% 82%  
294 1.3% 82%  
295 0.3% 81%  
296 0.8% 80%  
297 1.1% 80%  
298 0.3% 79%  
299 2% 78%  
300 0.8% 76%  
301 0.6% 76%  
302 5% 75%  
303 7% 70%  
304 3% 63%  
305 0.3% 60%  
306 2% 60%  
307 0.3% 57%  
308 3% 57%  
309 5% 54% Median
310 2% 49%  
311 0.9% 48%  
312 0.1% 47%  
313 7% 47%  
314 1.0% 40%  
315 2% 39%  
316 0.7% 36%  
317 0.4% 36% Last Result
318 1.1% 35%  
319 1.5% 34%  
320 4% 33%  
321 4% 29%  
322 3% 25%  
323 1.3% 22%  
324 0.1% 21%  
325 0.5% 21%  
326 1.0% 20% Majority
327 3% 19%  
328 0.2% 16%  
329 0.2% 16%  
330 0% 16%  
331 0.7% 16%  
332 12% 15%  
333 0.4% 3%  
334 0.7% 3%  
335 0.1% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.2% 1.5%  
338 0.2% 1.3%  
339 0% 1.1%  
340 0% 1.1%  
341 0.1% 1.0%  
342 0.3% 0.9%  
343 0% 0.7%  
344 0% 0.6%  
345 0% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.6%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.4%  
350 0% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0% 99.8%  
245 0% 99.7%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0% 99.6%  
248 0% 99.6%  
249 0.1% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.5%  
251 0% 99.4%  
252 0.1% 99.3%  
253 0% 99.2%  
254 0.1% 99.2%  
255 0.2% 99.1%  
256 0% 98.9%  
257 0.1% 98.9%  
258 0.1% 98.8%  
259 0.2% 98.7%  
260 0% 98.5%  
261 0% 98.5%  
262 1.0% 98%  
263 0.2% 97%  
264 0.8% 97%  
265 10% 96%  
266 0.4% 86%  
267 1.0% 86%  
268 5% 85%  
269 0.1% 80%  
270 0.6% 80%  
271 2% 79%  
272 0.3% 77%  
273 1.3% 76%  
274 2% 75%  
275 1.3% 73%  
276 5% 72%  
277 3% 68%  
278 2% 64%  
279 0.9% 62%  
280 1.2% 61%  
281 8% 60%  
282 1.1% 52%  
283 0.2% 50%  
284 3% 50%  
285 1.2% 47% Median
286 1.4% 46%  
287 5% 44%  
288 1.4% 39%  
289 5% 38%  
290 7% 33%  
291 1.0% 27%  
292 4% 26%  
293 0.1% 21%  
294 0.6% 21%  
295 0.2% 20%  
296 0.6% 20%  
297 0.1% 20%  
298 0.1% 20%  
299 0.2% 19%  
300 3% 19%  
301 2% 17% Last Result
302 1.1% 15%  
303 2% 14%  
304 2% 11%  
305 0.1% 10%  
306 0.1% 10%  
307 3% 10%  
308 0.3% 7%  
309 0% 7%  
310 0.2% 7%  
311 0.3% 6%  
312 0.1% 6%  
313 0.1% 6%  
314 0.1% 6%  
315 0.1% 6%  
316 0.2% 6%  
317 0% 5%  
318 0.7% 5%  
319 0% 5%  
320 0% 5%  
321 0% 5%  
322 1.3% 5%  
323 0.1% 3%  
324 0.1% 3%  
325 0.2% 3%  
326 0% 3% Majority
327 0% 3%  
328 0% 3%  
329 0% 3%  
330 1.0% 3%  
331 1.1% 2%  
332 0.1% 0.8%  
333 0% 0.7%  
334 0% 0.7%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.2% 0.4%  
337 0% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.7%  
237 0.1% 99.7%  
238 0% 99.7%  
239 0% 99.6%  
240 0% 99.6%  
241 0% 99.6%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0% 99.5%  
244 0.1% 99.5%  
245 0.1% 99.4%  
246 0.2% 99.3%  
247 0.1% 99.0%  
248 0% 99.0%  
249 0.2% 99.0%  
250 0% 98.8%  
251 0.1% 98.8%  
252 0% 98.6%  
253 0.1% 98.6%  
254 0.6% 98.6%  
255 0.3% 98%  
256 0.4% 98%  
257 0.1% 97%  
258 0.4% 97%  
259 0.9% 97%  
260 10% 96%  
261 0.2% 86%  
262 1.1% 85%  
263 7% 84%  
264 0.2% 78%  
265 0.2% 77%  
266 2% 77%  
267 2% 75%  
268 4% 74%  
269 3% 70%  
270 3% 66%  
271 2% 63%  
272 0.2% 61%  
273 6% 61%  
274 0.4% 55%  
275 1.1% 55%  
276 2% 54%  
277 1.1% 52%  
278 1.0% 51%  
279 0.3% 50%  
280 4% 49% Median
281 0.9% 46%  
282 11% 45%  
283 2% 34%  
284 3% 32%  
285 5% 29%  
286 2% 24%  
287 1.2% 22%  
288 0.4% 21%  
289 0.6% 20%  
290 0.3% 20%  
291 0.1% 20%  
292 2% 19%  
293 0.1% 17%  
294 1.2% 17%  
295 1.1% 16%  
296 0.7% 15%  
297 1.2% 14% Last Result
298 2% 13%  
299 2% 11%  
300 0.1% 9%  
301 0.1% 9%  
302 3% 9%  
303 0.1% 7%  
304 0.1% 7%  
305 0.3% 6%  
306 0.1% 6%  
307 0.4% 6%  
308 0.1% 6%  
309 0% 6%  
310 0.1% 6%  
311 0.2% 5%  
312 0% 5%  
313 0% 5%  
314 1.3% 5%  
315 0.7% 4%  
316 0% 3%  
317 0% 3%  
318 0.1% 3%  
319 0% 3%  
320 0.2% 3%  
321 0.1% 3%  
322 0% 3%  
323 0% 3%  
324 0% 3%  
325 0.9% 3%  
326 1.1% 2% Majority
327 0% 0.7%  
328 0% 0.7%  
329 0% 0.7%  
330 0.3% 0.7%  
331 0.2% 0.4%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0.2% 0.2%  
337 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.7%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0.3% 99.7%  
243 0.2% 99.4%  
244 0.1% 99.2%  
245 0.1% 99.0%  
246 0.3% 98.9%  
247 0% 98.7%  
248 0.1% 98.7%  
249 7% 98.6%  
250 0.8% 92%  
251 0% 91%  
252 0% 91%  
253 0% 91%  
254 0.1% 91%  
255 0.2% 91%  
256 2% 91%  
257 5% 89%  
258 3% 84%  
259 0.7% 81%  
260 2% 80%  
261 0.3% 78%  
262 3% 78%  
263 0.8% 75%  
264 2% 74%  
265 0.4% 72%  
266 4% 71%  
267 0.8% 67%  
268 4% 66%  
269 10% 63%  
270 1.2% 53%  
271 1.1% 52%  
272 0.7% 50% Median
273 3% 50%  
274 4% 47%  
275 0.6% 43%  
276 6% 42%  
277 1.2% 36%  
278 2% 35% Last Result
279 0.5% 33%  
280 0.5% 32%  
281 0.1% 32%  
282 0.4% 32%  
283 0.3% 31%  
284 9% 31%  
285 0.2% 22%  
286 2% 22%  
287 0.3% 20%  
288 0.5% 20%  
289 0% 19%  
290 2% 19%  
291 0.3% 18%  
292 0.7% 17%  
293 2% 17%  
294 0.4% 15%  
295 0.2% 14%  
296 0% 14%  
297 0.4% 14%  
298 0.8% 14%  
299 0% 13%  
300 0.3% 13%  
301 3% 13%  
302 0.1% 10%  
303 0% 10%  
304 3% 10%  
305 0% 7%  
306 0.1% 7%  
307 1.2% 7%  
308 0.1% 6%  
309 0.2% 6%  
310 0.6% 6%  
311 1.3% 5%  
312 0% 4%  
313 0% 4%  
314 1.2% 4%  
315 0% 2%  
316 0.1% 2%  
317 0% 2%  
318 1.1% 2%  
319 0% 1.2%  
320 0% 1.2%  
321 0% 1.2%  
322 0.1% 1.1%  
323 0% 1.1%  
324 0% 1.0%  
325 0% 1.0%  
326 0.1% 1.0% Majority
327 0% 0.9%  
328 0.2% 0.8%  
329 0% 0.6%  
330 0.2% 0.6%  
331 0.2% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0% 99.6%  
235 0.3% 99.6%  
236 0.1% 99.3%  
237 0.1% 99.2%  
238 0.2% 99.0%  
239 0.1% 98.9%  
240 0.1% 98.8%  
241 0% 98.7%  
242 0.5% 98.6%  
243 0.1% 98%  
244 7% 98%  
245 0.1% 91%  
246 0.2% 91%  
247 0% 91%  
248 0.3% 91%  
249 0.2% 90%  
250 2% 90%  
251 3% 88%  
252 5% 85%  
253 1.0% 79%  
254 3% 78%  
255 0.9% 76%  
256 2% 75%  
257 0.3% 73%  
258 4% 72%  
259 0.7% 69%  
260 0.1% 68%  
261 4% 68%  
262 2% 64%  
263 4% 62%  
264 3% 58%  
265 6% 55%  
266 2% 49%  
267 0.9% 47% Median
268 0.5% 46%  
269 6% 45%  
270 0.5% 39%  
271 2% 39%  
272 2% 36%  
273 0.8% 34%  
274 2% 34% Last Result
275 0.2% 32%  
276 5% 32%  
277 2% 26%  
278 0.2% 25%  
279 2% 25%  
280 0.9% 22%  
281 0.1% 21%  
282 2% 21%  
283 0.5% 20%  
284 0.6% 19%  
285 2% 19%  
286 0.3% 17%  
287 0.2% 17%  
288 2% 16%  
289 0.1% 15%  
290 0.3% 14%  
291 0.1% 14%  
292 0.1% 14%  
293 1.1% 14%  
294 0.1% 13%  
295 0.1% 13%  
296 5% 13%  
297 0.1% 8%  
298 0.1% 8%  
299 0.1% 8%  
300 0.4% 7%  
301 0% 7%  
302 0.6% 7%  
303 1.4% 6%  
304 0.7% 5%  
305 0.7% 4%  
306 0.1% 4%  
307 0.1% 4%  
308 0% 4%  
309 1.1% 4%  
310 0.1% 2%  
311 0.1% 2%  
312 0% 2%  
313 1.1% 2%  
314 0.1% 1.2%  
315 0% 1.1%  
316 0% 1.1%  
317 0% 1.0%  
318 0% 1.0%  
319 0% 1.0%  
320 0% 1.0%  
321 0.1% 1.0%  
322 0% 0.9%  
323 0.3% 0.9%  
324 0% 0.6%  
325 0.2% 0.6%  
326 0.1% 0.3% Majority
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0% 99.8%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0.1% 99.7%  
209 0.1% 99.6%  
210 0.1% 99.5%  
211 0.2% 99.4%  
212 0.3% 99.2%  
213 0.1% 98.9%  
214 0.1% 98.9%  
215 0.4% 98.7%  
216 0% 98%  
217 7% 98%  
218 0% 91%  
219 0.2% 91%  
220 1.2% 91%  
221 0.9% 90%  
222 0.1% 89%  
223 0% 89%  
224 0.3% 89%  
225 1.1% 89%  
226 4% 88%  
227 11% 84%  
228 0.5% 73%  
229 0.6% 73%  
230 5% 72%  
231 3% 67%  
232 1.4% 64%  
233 6% 63%  
234 0.4% 57%  
235 3% 56%  
236 0.6% 53%  
237 6% 52% Median
238 3% 46%  
239 4% 43%  
240 0.7% 39%  
241 4% 38%  
242 2% 34%  
243 0.8% 32%  
244 0.2% 31%  
245 0.2% 31%  
246 0.3% 31%  
247 0.2% 31%  
248 4% 30%  
249 5% 27%  
250 0.3% 22%  
251 0.1% 22%  
252 2% 21%  
253 1.5% 19%  
254 0% 18%  
255 0.5% 18%  
256 2% 17%  
257 0.4% 15%  
258 0.1% 14%  
259 0.1% 14%  
260 0.4% 14%  
261 2% 14%  
262 3% 12%  
263 0.2% 9%  
264 0.8% 9%  
265 0.7% 8%  
266 0.1% 7% Last Result
267 0% 7%  
268 0.1% 7%  
269 0.5% 7%  
270 0.7% 6%  
271 0.1% 6%  
272 2% 6%  
273 0% 4%  
274 0.1% 4%  
275 0.1% 4%  
276 0% 4%  
277 0% 4%  
278 0% 4%  
279 0.5% 4%  
280 2% 3%  
281 0.1% 1.4%  
282 0.2% 1.3%  
283 0% 1.2%  
284 0% 1.1%  
285 0.3% 1.1%  
286 0% 0.8%  
287 0% 0.8%  
288 0% 0.8%  
289 0.1% 0.7%  
290 0.3% 0.6%  
291 0% 0.3%  
292 0% 0.3%  
293 0.1% 0.3%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0.1% 99.8%  
200 0% 99.7%  
201 0.1% 99.7%  
202 0.1% 99.6%  
203 0.1% 99.5%  
204 0.2% 99.4%  
205 0.3% 99.2%  
206 0.2% 99.0%  
207 0.4% 98.8%  
208 0.1% 98%  
209 0.1% 98%  
210 0.1% 98%  
211 0.2% 98%  
212 7% 98%  
213 0.3% 91%  
214 0.2% 91%  
215 1.2% 90%  
216 0.7% 89%  
217 1.3% 89%  
218 2% 87%  
219 5% 86%  
220 0.4% 81%  
221 2% 80%  
222 7% 78%  
223 3% 72%  
224 1.3% 68%  
225 6% 67%  
226 1.2% 61%  
227 4% 60%  
228 0.4% 56%  
229 4% 56%  
230 0.8% 52%  
231 0.8% 52%  
232 6% 51% Median
233 2% 45%  
234 6% 43%  
235 2% 36%  
236 1.0% 35%  
237 2% 34%  
238 0.3% 32%  
239 0.5% 31%  
240 0.7% 31%  
241 6% 30%  
242 0.3% 24%  
243 2% 24%  
244 0.2% 22%  
245 0.1% 22%  
246 0.1% 21%  
247 2% 21%  
248 1.2% 19%  
249 2% 18%  
250 0.3% 17%  
251 2% 16%  
252 0.3% 15%  
253 2% 14%  
254 0.1% 12%  
255 0.3% 12%  
256 0.1% 12%  
257 3% 12%  
258 0.1% 9%  
259 0.8% 9%  
260 0.1% 8%  
261 0.4% 8%  
262 0% 7% Last Result
263 0.1% 7%  
264 2% 7%  
265 0.1% 5%  
266 0.1% 5%  
267 0.9% 5%  
268 0% 4%  
269 0% 4%  
270 0% 4%  
271 0.1% 4%  
272 0% 4%  
273 0% 4%  
274 0.5% 4%  
275 2% 3%  
276 0% 1.3%  
277 0.2% 1.3%  
278 0% 1.1%  
279 0.1% 1.1%  
280 0.3% 1.0%  
281 0% 0.8%  
282 0% 0.7%  
283 0% 0.7%  
284 0% 0.7%  
285 0.4% 0.7%  
286 0% 0.3%  
287 0% 0.3%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations