Opinion Poll by YouGov, 2–3 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 32.0% 30.6–33.5% 30.2–33.9% 29.9–34.2% 29.2–34.9%
Labour Party 40.0% 31.0% 29.6–32.4% 29.2–32.8% 28.9–33.2% 28.2–33.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 12.0% 11.1–13.1% 10.8–13.4% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.6–8.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.5%
Brexit Party 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.5%
Green Party 1.6% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 276 249–299 243–302 239–306 231–313
Labour Party 262 255 233–280 231–285 228–289 221–295
Liberal Democrats 12 38 33–43 31–44 30–45 28–46
UK Independence Party 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Scottish National Party 35 54 53–55 53–56 53–57 51–58
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Green Party 1 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–8 4–9 4–10 3–12

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.1% 99.7%  
231 0.2% 99.6%  
232 0.1% 99.4%  
233 0.2% 99.3%  
234 0.2% 99.1%  
235 0.1% 99.0%  
236 0.3% 98.9%  
237 0.3% 98.6%  
238 0.5% 98%  
239 0.6% 98%  
240 0.1% 97%  
241 1.5% 97%  
242 0.2% 96%  
243 0.8% 95%  
244 1.3% 95%  
245 0.3% 93%  
246 2% 93%  
247 0.6% 91%  
248 0.5% 91%  
249 0.2% 90%  
250 1.1% 90%  
251 1.1% 89%  
252 0.6% 88%  
253 2% 87%  
254 0.9% 85%  
255 0.9% 84%  
256 3% 83%  
257 0.8% 81%  
258 1.1% 80%  
259 0.8% 79%  
260 3% 78%  
261 0.8% 75%  
262 1.3% 75%  
263 1.3% 73%  
264 1.1% 72%  
265 2% 71%  
266 0.5% 69%  
267 1.5% 68%  
268 3% 67%  
269 2% 64%  
270 1.1% 61%  
271 1.2% 60%  
272 2% 59%  
273 2% 57%  
274 2% 55%  
275 2% 53%  
276 1.5% 50% Median
277 3% 49%  
278 2% 46%  
279 1.4% 44%  
280 2% 43%  
281 2% 41%  
282 4% 38%  
283 1.4% 34%  
284 2% 33%  
285 0.8% 31%  
286 2% 30%  
287 1.3% 29%  
288 0.7% 27%  
289 5% 27%  
290 0.7% 22%  
291 0.3% 21%  
292 4% 21%  
293 1.0% 17%  
294 0.8% 16%  
295 1.0% 15%  
296 1.1% 14%  
297 1.4% 13%  
298 1.0% 12%  
299 1.2% 11%  
300 1.5% 9%  
301 1.4% 8%  
302 2% 7%  
303 1.3% 5%  
304 0.6% 3%  
305 0.2% 3%  
306 0.7% 3%  
307 0.3% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0.4% 2%  
310 0.1% 1.2%  
311 0.3% 1.0%  
312 0.2% 0.7%  
313 0.1% 0.5%  
314 0% 0.4%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.7%  
221 0.4% 99.5%  
222 0.1% 99.2%  
223 0.2% 99.0%  
224 0.1% 98.8%  
225 0.3% 98.8%  
226 0.3% 98%  
227 0.4% 98%  
228 0.9% 98%  
229 0.8% 97%  
230 1.0% 96%  
231 1.2% 95%  
232 2% 94%  
233 3% 92%  
234 2% 89%  
235 2% 88%  
236 0.3% 86%  
237 0.4% 86%  
238 1.4% 85%  
239 2% 84%  
240 1.0% 82%  
241 0.9% 81%  
242 1.2% 80%  
243 6% 79%  
244 0.7% 72%  
245 1.2% 72%  
246 2% 71%  
247 0.5% 69%  
248 5% 68%  
249 0.5% 63%  
250 2% 63%  
251 5% 60%  
252 0.7% 56%  
253 0.6% 55%  
254 3% 54%  
255 4% 51% Median
256 1.4% 47%  
257 2% 46%  
258 2% 44%  
259 0.6% 42%  
260 2% 41%  
261 0.9% 39%  
262 1.2% 38% Last Result
263 3% 37%  
264 1.2% 34%  
265 0.4% 33%  
266 3% 33%  
267 3% 29%  
268 0.9% 26%  
269 2% 25%  
270 0.4% 24%  
271 4% 23%  
272 0.6% 19%  
273 0.4% 19%  
274 1.2% 18%  
275 0.9% 17%  
276 1.4% 16%  
277 0.9% 15%  
278 0.6% 14%  
279 2% 13%  
280 2% 11%  
281 0.6% 9%  
282 0.4% 9%  
283 0.3% 8%  
284 1.1% 8%  
285 2% 7%  
286 0.5% 5%  
287 0.3% 4%  
288 2% 4%  
289 0.5% 3%  
290 0.4% 2%  
291 0.2% 2%  
292 0.3% 1.4%  
293 0.3% 1.1%  
294 0.1% 0.8%  
295 0.2% 0.7%  
296 0.1% 0.5%  
297 0.1% 0.4%  
298 0.2% 0.3%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.1% 99.8%  
27 0.2% 99.7%  
28 0.9% 99.5%  
29 0.6% 98.6%  
30 1.2% 98%  
31 3% 97%  
32 2% 94%  
33 4% 91%  
34 9% 87%  
35 7% 78%  
36 10% 71%  
37 10% 61%  
38 11% 51% Median
39 11% 40%  
40 8% 29%  
41 6% 21%  
42 3% 14%  
43 4% 12%  
44 4% 8%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.8%  
47 0% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 22% 99.0%  
2 77% 78% Median
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.7% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.3%  
53 43% 99.2%  
54 41% 56% Median
55 7% 15%  
56 3% 8%  
57 3% 4%  
58 1.3% 1.3%  
59 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 1.0%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 20% 100% Last Result
2 75% 80% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.4% 100%  
4 15% 98.6% Last Result
5 40% 83% Median
6 7% 43%  
7 3% 36%  
8 28% 34%  
9 2% 5%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.9%  
12 0.4% 0.6%  
13 0% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 352 96% 329–379 326–385 322–388 316–396
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 347 87% 323–373 320–380 317–382 308–391
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 336 70% 309–360 302–363 299–367 290–374
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 330 59% 303–354 296–356 293–360 285–366
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 314 30% 293–339 291–345 289–348 282–354
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 308 20% 287–334 284–339 282–343 274–349
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 314 26% 289–335 283–337 280–339 273–347
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 299 10% 275–325 273–332 268–334 262–342
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 293 6% 269–319 266–327 261–329 254–337
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 282 0.1% 255–305 248–309 245–312 236–320
Conservative Party 317 276 0% 249–299 243–302 239–306 231–313
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 261 0% 239–285 237–291 236–294 228–301
Labour Party 262 255 0% 233–280 231–285 228–289 221–295

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
314 0.1% 99.6%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.2% 99.5%  
317 0.1% 99.3%  
318 0.3% 99.2%  
319 0.2% 98.9%  
320 0.4% 98.7%  
321 0.2% 98%  
322 0.7% 98%  
323 0.2% 97%  
324 0.5% 97%  
325 0.8% 97%  
326 2% 96% Majority
327 1.0% 94%  
328 2% 93%  
329 1.2% 91%  
330 0.7% 90%  
331 2% 89%  
332 0.9% 87%  
333 1.0% 86%  
334 0.7% 85%  
335 1.4% 85%  
336 3% 83%  
337 1.3% 80%  
338 0.7% 79%  
339 5% 78%  
340 0.9% 74%  
341 0.9% 73%  
342 1.0% 72%  
343 1.5% 71%  
344 2% 70%  
345 1.1% 67%  
346 5% 66%  
347 1.3% 62%  
348 3% 60%  
349 0.9% 58%  
350 2% 57%  
351 1.0% 54%  
352 4% 53% Median
353 2% 50%  
354 1.1% 48%  
355 2% 47%  
356 1.3% 44%  
357 3% 43%  
358 1.3% 40%  
359 1.3% 39%  
360 2% 37%  
361 4% 36%  
362 1.0% 32%  
363 2% 31%  
364 0.6% 29%  
365 1.5% 28%  
366 0.9% 27%  
367 0.7% 26%  
368 3% 25%  
369 0.8% 22%  
370 1.0% 21%  
371 0.4% 20%  
372 3% 20%  
373 1.4% 17%  
374 0.7% 16%  
375 1.4% 15%  
376 2% 14%  
377 0.5% 12%  
378 1.0% 11%  
379 0.5% 10%  
380 0.8% 10%  
381 0.4% 9%  
382 2% 9%  
383 0.4% 7%  
384 0.5% 7%  
385 1.4% 6%  
386 2% 5%  
387 0.3% 3%  
388 0.5% 3%  
389 0.3% 2%  
390 0.5% 2%  
391 0.4% 2%  
392 0.1% 1.2%  
393 0.1% 1.1%  
394 0.1% 0.9%  
395 0.2% 0.8%  
396 0.2% 0.6%  
397 0.1% 0.4%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0% 99.6%  
308 0.1% 99.6%  
309 0.1% 99.4% Last Result
310 0.3% 99.3%  
311 0.1% 99.0%  
312 0.2% 98.9%  
313 0.2% 98.8%  
314 0.2% 98.5%  
315 0.3% 98%  
316 0.4% 98%  
317 1.0% 98%  
318 0.4% 97%  
319 0.8% 96%  
320 0.5% 95%  
321 3% 95%  
322 1.0% 92%  
323 2% 91%  
324 0.8% 89%  
325 0.9% 88%  
326 2% 87% Majority
327 1.0% 86%  
328 0.7% 85%  
329 1.0% 84%  
330 1.4% 83%  
331 3% 82%  
332 1.0% 79%  
333 2% 78%  
334 4% 76%  
335 0.8% 73%  
336 2% 72%  
337 0.7% 70%  
338 6% 70%  
339 1.0% 63%  
340 1.3% 62%  
341 1.2% 61%  
342 1.2% 60%  
343 2% 59%  
344 1.2% 57%  
345 3% 55%  
346 0.8% 52%  
347 3% 51% Median
348 4% 48%  
349 0.9% 45%  
350 0.7% 44%  
351 1.3% 43%  
352 2% 42%  
353 2% 40%  
354 1.5% 38%  
355 2% 36%  
356 4% 34%  
357 0.9% 30%  
358 0.8% 29%  
359 1.0% 28%  
360 1.2% 27%  
361 2% 26%  
362 0.4% 24%  
363 2% 24%  
364 3% 22%  
365 0.9% 19%  
366 0.4% 18%  
367 0.8% 18%  
368 1.3% 17%  
369 2% 16%  
370 0.8% 14%  
371 2% 13%  
372 0.5% 11%  
373 1.2% 11%  
374 0.5% 10%  
375 0.4% 9%  
376 0.5% 9%  
377 1.4% 8%  
378 0.5% 7%  
379 0.6% 6%  
380 2% 6%  
381 2% 4%  
382 0.3% 3%  
383 0.4% 2%  
384 0.2% 2%  
385 0.5% 2%  
386 0.2% 1.4%  
387 0.2% 1.2%  
388 0.1% 1.0%  
389 0.1% 0.9%  
390 0.2% 0.8%  
391 0.2% 0.6%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.2% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.4%  
292 0.2% 99.3%  
293 0.1% 99.1%  
294 0.1% 99.0%  
295 0.4% 98.9%  
296 0.2% 98%  
297 0.1% 98%  
298 0.5% 98%  
299 1.2% 98%  
300 0.4% 96%  
301 0.7% 96%  
302 2% 95%  
303 0.3% 94%  
304 1.4% 93%  
305 0.3% 92%  
306 0.3% 92%  
307 0.5% 91%  
308 0.5% 91%  
309 0.7% 90%  
310 1.1% 90%  
311 0.3% 89%  
312 2% 88%  
313 2% 86%  
314 2% 84%  
315 0.5% 83%  
316 0.7% 82%  
317 2% 82%  
318 2% 79%  
319 0.7% 77%  
320 0.7% 76%  
321 1.2% 76%  
322 1.1% 74%  
323 0.9% 73%  
324 1.0% 72%  
325 1.2% 71%  
326 3% 70% Majority
327 2% 67%  
328 3% 65%  
329 0.9% 62%  
330 2% 61%  
331 2% 59%  
332 1.4% 58%  
333 1.2% 56%  
334 3% 55%  
335 2% 52% Median
336 4% 50%  
337 0.9% 47%  
338 3% 46%  
339 0.4% 43%  
340 1.2% 42%  
341 2% 41%  
342 0.9% 39%  
343 1.1% 38%  
344 5% 37%  
345 2% 32%  
346 1.3% 30%  
347 0.8% 28%  
348 4% 28%  
349 1.2% 24%  
350 0.7% 22%  
351 3% 22%  
352 0.6% 18%  
353 1.4% 18%  
354 1.0% 16%  
355 0.6% 15%  
356 1.4% 15% Last Result
357 0.8% 13%  
358 1.2% 12%  
359 0.7% 11%  
360 3% 11%  
361 1.0% 8%  
362 2% 7%  
363 1.1% 5%  
364 0.3% 4%  
365 0.6% 4%  
366 0.4% 3%  
367 0.4% 3%  
368 0.4% 2%  
369 0.4% 2%  
370 0.2% 1.4%  
371 0.1% 1.2%  
372 0.4% 1.1%  
373 0.1% 0.7%  
374 0.1% 0.6%  
375 0% 0.5%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.2% 99.6%  
286 0.2% 99.4%  
287 0.1% 99.2%  
288 0.2% 99.1%  
289 0.1% 98.9%  
290 0.3% 98.8%  
291 0.4% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.5% 98%  
294 1.5% 97%  
295 0.3% 96%  
296 0.6% 96%  
297 1.4% 95%  
298 0.4% 94%  
299 1.5% 93%  
300 0.6% 92%  
301 0.4% 91%  
302 0.4% 91%  
303 0.5% 90%  
304 0.7% 90%  
305 1.4% 89%  
306 0.9% 88%  
307 2% 87%  
308 1.3% 85%  
309 3% 84%  
310 0.7% 81%  
311 1.2% 80%  
312 0.4% 79%  
313 2% 79%  
314 1.3% 77%  
315 1.2% 75%  
316 1.1% 74%  
317 1.1% 73%  
318 0.8% 72%  
319 2% 71%  
320 0.6% 69%  
321 4% 69%  
322 2% 65%  
323 2% 63%  
324 2% 61%  
325 1.2% 60%  
326 2% 59% Majority
327 2% 56%  
328 3% 54%  
329 1.3% 51%  
330 3% 50% Median
331 2% 47%  
332 0.6% 45%  
333 3% 45%  
334 0.4% 42%  
335 3% 41%  
336 4% 39%  
337 2% 35%  
338 1.2% 32%  
339 2% 31%  
340 1.1% 29%  
341 1.3% 28%  
342 0.6% 27%  
343 5% 26%  
344 0.4% 22%  
345 1.3% 21%  
346 3% 20%  
347 0.7% 17%  
348 1.1% 16%  
349 1.1% 15%  
350 1.4% 14%  
351 1.0% 13%  
352 0.6% 12% Last Result
353 1.1% 11%  
354 1.4% 10%  
355 3% 9%  
356 1.3% 5%  
357 0.7% 4%  
358 0.2% 4%  
359 0.2% 3%  
360 0.8% 3%  
361 0.4% 2%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.4% 2%  
364 0.5% 1.2%  
365 0.2% 0.8%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0% 0.5%  
368 0% 0.4%  
369 0% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0.1% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.4% 99.5%  
283 0.1% 99.1%  
284 0.2% 99.1%  
285 0.5% 98.9%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.4% 98%  
290 1.1% 97%  
291 4% 96%  
292 1.4% 93%  
293 1.5% 91%  
294 2% 90%  
295 0.4% 88%  
296 1.3% 87%  
297 0.5% 86%  
298 2% 85%  
299 2% 84%  
300 0.9% 82%  
301 1.0% 81% Last Result
302 6% 80%  
303 0.4% 74%  
304 2% 74%  
305 2% 72%  
306 0.3% 70%  
307 0.2% 69%  
308 2% 69%  
309 2% 67%  
310 6% 65%  
311 0.8% 59%  
312 4% 58%  
313 1.0% 54%  
314 4% 53% Median
315 2% 49%  
316 3% 48%  
317 0.8% 45%  
318 1.1% 44%  
319 2% 43%  
320 3% 40%  
321 0.6% 38%  
322 0.7% 37%  
323 0.3% 37%  
324 3% 36%  
325 4% 34%  
326 2% 30% Majority
327 2% 27%  
328 0.3% 25%  
329 1.5% 25%  
330 1.0% 24%  
331 1.3% 23%  
332 3% 21%  
333 1.3% 18%  
334 0.3% 17%  
335 0.5% 17%  
336 1.2% 16%  
337 1.3% 15%  
338 3% 14%  
339 0.8% 11%  
340 0.6% 10%  
341 0.3% 9%  
342 0.6% 9%  
343 2% 8%  
344 0.3% 6%  
345 0.9% 6%  
346 1.5% 5%  
347 0.6% 3%  
348 0.5% 3%  
349 0.4% 2%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.2% 2%  
352 0.5% 1.3%  
353 0.1% 0.8%  
354 0.2% 0.7%  
355 0.1% 0.5%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.4% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.2%  
276 0.2% 99.2%  
277 0.1% 99.0%  
278 0.2% 98.9%  
279 0.2% 98.7%  
280 0.4% 98.5%  
281 0.4% 98%  
282 0.6% 98%  
283 1.0% 97%  
284 1.3% 96%  
285 2% 95%  
286 3% 93%  
287 0.6% 90%  
288 2% 90%  
289 2% 88%  
290 0.6% 86%  
291 1.0% 86%  
292 1.1% 85%  
293 1.1% 84%  
294 1.3% 82%  
295 2% 81%  
296 0.8% 79%  
297 6% 79% Last Result
298 0.6% 73%  
299 1.3% 72%  
300 2% 71%  
301 0.1% 69%  
302 5% 69%  
303 1.4% 64%  
304 5% 62%  
305 2% 58%  
306 0.7% 56%  
307 1.1% 55%  
308 5% 54%  
309 2% 49% Median
310 2% 47%  
311 2% 45%  
312 0.8% 43%  
313 1.3% 42%  
314 2% 41%  
315 0.8% 39%  
316 2% 39%  
317 3% 37%  
318 0.4% 34%  
319 3% 34%  
320 3% 31%  
321 2% 28%  
322 1.1% 26%  
323 1.3% 25%  
324 4% 24%  
325 0.3% 20%  
326 0.8% 20% Majority
327 0.6% 19%  
328 1.1% 18%  
329 1.1% 17%  
330 1.1% 16%  
331 0.8% 15%  
332 1.2% 14%  
333 3% 13%  
334 0.8% 10%  
335 0.6% 9%  
336 0.3% 9%  
337 0.8% 8%  
338 2% 8%  
339 0.6% 5%  
340 0.4% 5%  
341 2% 4%  
342 0.2% 3%  
343 0.6% 3%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.3% 2%  
346 0.3% 1.4%  
347 0.4% 1.1%  
348 0.1% 0.7%  
349 0.2% 0.7%  
350 0% 0.5%  
351 0.2% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.3% 99.6%  
274 0.1% 99.3%  
275 0.2% 99.2%  
276 0.4% 99.1%  
277 0.4% 98.7%  
278 0.3% 98%  
279 0.2% 98%  
280 0.6% 98%  
281 0.8% 97%  
282 0.5% 96%  
283 1.4% 96%  
284 2% 94%  
285 0.2% 93%  
286 1.2% 92%  
287 0.2% 91%  
288 0.6% 91%  
289 1.3% 90%  
290 2% 89%  
291 2% 88%  
292 1.3% 85%  
293 0.6% 84%  
294 0.6% 83%  
295 0.3% 83%  
296 3% 82%  
297 1.3% 79%  
298 2% 78%  
299 1.5% 76%  
300 0.2% 75%  
301 2% 75%  
302 1.1% 73%  
303 4% 72%  
304 2% 68%  
305 3% 66%  
306 0.6% 63%  
307 0.1% 62%  
308 1.0% 62%  
309 3% 61%  
310 2% 59%  
311 2% 57%  
312 0.6% 55%  
313 3% 55%  
314 4% 52% Median
315 1.1% 48%  
316 3% 47%  
317 2% 44%  
318 6% 42%  
319 3% 36%  
320 1.1% 33%  
321 1.3% 32%  
322 0.1% 31%  
323 2% 31%  
324 1.4% 29%  
325 1.4% 27%  
326 6% 26% Majority
327 0.8% 20%  
328 0.8% 19%  
329 2% 18% Last Result
330 2% 17%  
331 0.8% 15%  
332 1.1% 14%  
333 0.6% 13%  
334 1.4% 13%  
335 1.5% 11%  
336 2% 10%  
337 3% 8%  
338 1.5% 5%  
339 0.7% 3%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.4% 1.4%  
345 0.1% 1.0%  
346 0.1% 0.9%  
347 0.4% 0.8%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0.2% 0.4%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.7%  
260 0% 99.6%  
261 0% 99.6%  
262 0.1% 99.5%  
263 0.2% 99.4%  
264 0.1% 99.2%  
265 0.4% 99.1%  
266 0.4% 98.7%  
267 0.3% 98%  
268 0.9% 98%  
269 0.3% 97%  
270 0.2% 97%  
271 0.7% 97%  
272 0.6% 96%  
273 3% 95%  
274 2% 93%  
275 0.9% 90%  
276 1.1% 90%  
277 1.0% 89%  
278 1.2% 87% Last Result
279 0.9% 86%  
280 1.2% 85%  
281 1.0% 84%  
282 3% 83%  
283 2% 80%  
284 0.7% 79%  
285 5% 78%  
286 0.3% 74%  
287 1.1% 73%  
288 1.3% 72%  
289 0.5% 71%  
290 3% 70%  
291 2% 68%  
292 5% 66%  
293 1.3% 61%  
294 2% 60%  
295 3% 58%  
296 0.5% 55%  
297 2% 55%  
298 1.2% 53% Median
299 3% 52%  
300 3% 49%  
301 1.0% 46%  
302 2% 45%  
303 2% 43%  
304 2% 41%  
305 2% 39%  
306 2% 38%  
307 1.4% 35%  
308 3% 34%  
309 2% 31%  
310 1.4% 29%  
311 0.7% 28%  
312 1.2% 27%  
313 0.9% 26%  
314 1.4% 25%  
315 2% 24%  
316 0.5% 21%  
317 1.2% 21%  
318 0.3% 20%  
319 3% 19%  
320 1.4% 17%  
321 1.0% 15%  
322 2% 14%  
323 0.4% 12%  
324 1.2% 12%  
325 0.5% 10%  
326 0.5% 10% Majority
327 0.7% 9%  
328 0.4% 9%  
329 1.5% 8%  
330 0.3% 7%  
331 0.7% 7%  
332 1.4% 6%  
333 2% 4%  
334 0.3% 3%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.3% 2%  
337 0.3% 2%  
338 0.3% 1.4%  
339 0.1% 1.1%  
340 0.1% 1.0%  
341 0.2% 0.9%  
342 0.3% 0.7%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0.1% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0.2% 99.5%  
256 0.1% 99.3%  
257 0.3% 99.2%  
258 0.2% 98.9%  
259 0.3% 98.7%  
260 0.3% 98%  
261 0.6% 98%  
262 0.3% 97%  
263 0.7% 97%  
264 0.4% 96%  
265 0.7% 96%  
266 1.5% 95%  
267 1.0% 94%  
268 3% 93%  
269 1.0% 90%  
270 1.2% 89%  
271 0.7% 88%  
272 2% 87%  
273 0.3% 85%  
274 1.0% 85% Last Result
275 1.3% 84%  
276 1.1% 83%  
277 3% 82%  
278 0.4% 79%  
279 2% 78%  
280 4% 77%  
281 0.6% 73%  
282 2% 72%  
283 1.0% 70%  
284 5% 69%  
285 2% 64%  
286 1.2% 62%  
287 2% 61%  
288 1.1% 60%  
289 1.1% 59%  
290 3% 57%  
291 1.1% 55%  
292 2% 53%  
293 2% 51% Median
294 2% 49%  
295 3% 47%  
296 1.0% 44%  
297 1.0% 43%  
298 1.3% 42%  
299 3% 41%  
300 1.4% 38%  
301 3% 36%  
302 0.8% 33%  
303 3% 32%  
304 0.8% 29%  
305 1.4% 28%  
306 0.9% 27%  
307 1.0% 26%  
308 1.1% 25%  
309 0.3% 24%  
310 2% 23%  
311 2% 21%  
312 0.9% 19%  
313 0.3% 18%  
314 2% 17%  
315 1.1% 16%  
316 2% 15%  
317 2% 13%  
318 0.4% 11%  
319 1.2% 11%  
320 0.4% 10%  
321 0.7% 9%  
322 0.2% 9%  
323 0.5% 8%  
324 1.3% 8%  
325 0.6% 7%  
326 0.6% 6% Majority
327 2% 5%  
328 1.4% 4%  
329 0.4% 3%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.2% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.2% 1.3%  
334 0.2% 1.1%  
335 0.1% 0.9%  
336 0.1% 0.8%  
337 0.3% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.2% 99.7%  
237 0.1% 99.4%  
238 0.2% 99.4%  
239 0.1% 99.2%  
240 0.1% 99.1%  
241 0.2% 99.0%  
242 0.4% 98.7%  
243 0.4% 98%  
244 0.3% 98%  
245 0.2% 98%  
246 1.3% 97%  
247 0.5% 96%  
248 0.8% 96%  
249 1.4% 95%  
250 0.3% 93%  
251 1.4% 93%  
252 0.3% 92%  
253 0.4% 91%  
254 0.5% 91%  
255 0.9% 90%  
256 1.0% 90%  
257 0.3% 89%  
258 2% 88%  
259 2% 86%  
260 1.1% 85%  
261 1.3% 84%  
262 0.4% 82%  
263 0.8% 82%  
264 3% 81%  
265 2% 78%  
266 0.7% 76%  
267 1.1% 76%  
268 0.9% 74%  
269 2% 74%  
270 0.6% 72%  
271 0.9% 71%  
272 2% 70%  
273 4% 69%  
274 2% 65%  
275 1.3% 63%  
276 2% 61%  
277 1.4% 59%  
278 1.4% 58%  
279 0.9% 57%  
280 1.5% 56%  
281 3% 54% Median
282 3% 51%  
283 3% 48%  
284 1.5% 45%  
285 2% 44%  
286 0.8% 42%  
287 2% 41%  
288 0.9% 39%  
289 1.1% 38%  
290 5% 37%  
291 3% 32%  
292 1.4% 30%  
293 0.6% 28%  
294 4% 28%  
295 0.9% 24%  
296 1.4% 23%  
297 3% 21%  
298 1.1% 18%  
299 0.8% 17%  
300 1.0% 17%  
301 1.0% 16%  
302 1.3% 15%  
303 1.3% 13%  
304 0.6% 12%  
305 2% 11%  
306 0.7% 10%  
307 3% 9%  
308 0.8% 6%  
309 1.4% 5%  
310 0.3% 4%  
311 0.9% 4%  
312 0.5% 3%  
313 0.1% 2%  
314 0.5% 2%  
315 0.3% 2%  
316 0.1% 1.3%  
317 0.2% 1.2%  
318 0.1% 1.0%  
319 0.3% 0.9%  
320 0.2% 0.6%  
321 0% 0.4% Last Result
322 0.1% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.1% 99.7%  
231 0.2% 99.6%  
232 0.1% 99.4%  
233 0.2% 99.3%  
234 0.2% 99.1%  
235 0.1% 99.0%  
236 0.3% 98.9%  
237 0.3% 98.6%  
238 0.5% 98%  
239 0.6% 98%  
240 0.1% 97%  
241 1.5% 97%  
242 0.2% 96%  
243 0.8% 95%  
244 1.3% 95%  
245 0.3% 93%  
246 2% 93%  
247 0.6% 91%  
248 0.5% 91%  
249 0.2% 90%  
250 1.1% 90%  
251 1.1% 89%  
252 0.6% 88%  
253 2% 87%  
254 0.9% 85%  
255 0.9% 84%  
256 3% 83%  
257 0.8% 81%  
258 1.1% 80%  
259 0.8% 79%  
260 3% 78%  
261 0.8% 75%  
262 1.3% 75%  
263 1.3% 73%  
264 1.1% 72%  
265 2% 71%  
266 0.5% 69%  
267 1.5% 68%  
268 3% 67%  
269 2% 64%  
270 1.1% 61%  
271 1.2% 60%  
272 2% 59%  
273 2% 57%  
274 2% 55%  
275 2% 53%  
276 1.5% 50% Median
277 3% 49%  
278 2% 46%  
279 1.4% 44%  
280 2% 43%  
281 2% 41%  
282 4% 38%  
283 1.4% 34%  
284 2% 33%  
285 0.8% 31%  
286 2% 30%  
287 1.3% 29%  
288 0.7% 27%  
289 5% 27%  
290 0.7% 22%  
291 0.3% 21%  
292 4% 21%  
293 1.0% 17%  
294 0.8% 16%  
295 1.0% 15%  
296 1.1% 14%  
297 1.4% 13%  
298 1.0% 12%  
299 1.2% 11%  
300 1.5% 9%  
301 1.4% 8%  
302 2% 7%  
303 1.3% 5%  
304 0.6% 3%  
305 0.2% 3%  
306 0.7% 3%  
307 0.3% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0.4% 2%  
310 0.1% 1.2%  
311 0.3% 1.0%  
312 0.2% 0.7%  
313 0.1% 0.5%  
314 0% 0.4%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.6%  
228 0.2% 99.5%  
229 0.4% 99.4%  
230 0.1% 99.0%  
231 0.4% 98.9%  
232 0.2% 98.5%  
233 0.3% 98%  
234 0.1% 98%  
235 0.2% 98%  
236 1.1% 98%  
237 2% 97%  
238 3% 95%  
239 2% 92%  
240 2% 89%  
241 0.4% 87%  
242 0.7% 87%  
243 0.8% 86%  
244 1.1% 85%  
245 1.5% 84%  
246 1.0% 83%  
247 1.4% 82%  
248 6% 80%  
249 0.7% 74%  
250 1.3% 73%  
251 2% 72%  
252 0.5% 70%  
253 0.3% 69%  
254 0.3% 69%  
255 3% 69%  
256 7% 66%  
257 0.6% 58%  
258 0.8% 58%  
259 4% 57%  
260 3% 53% Median
261 3% 50%  
262 1.1% 48%  
263 3% 46%  
264 1.0% 44%  
265 2% 43%  
266 2% 40% Last Result
267 0.4% 38%  
268 0.7% 38%  
269 0.7% 37%  
270 1.2% 36%  
271 5% 35%  
272 3% 30%  
273 1.5% 27%  
274 1.2% 26%  
275 0.2% 25%  
276 2% 24%  
277 0.8% 22%  
278 0.8% 21%  
279 3% 21%  
280 1.2% 17%  
281 0.2% 16%  
282 0.5% 16%  
283 2% 16%  
284 3% 14%  
285 2% 11%  
286 0.7% 10%  
287 0.3% 9%  
288 0.3% 9%  
289 1.0% 8%  
290 2% 7%  
291 0.6% 5%  
292 0.3% 5%  
293 2% 5%  
294 0.8% 3%  
295 0.2% 2%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0.3% 2%  
298 0.4% 1.2%  
299 0.1% 0.8%  
300 0.2% 0.7%  
301 0.1% 0.5%  
302 0% 0.4%  
303 0.1% 0.4%  
304 0% 0.3%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0.1% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.7%  
221 0.4% 99.5%  
222 0.1% 99.2%  
223 0.2% 99.0%  
224 0.1% 98.8%  
225 0.3% 98.8%  
226 0.3% 98%  
227 0.4% 98%  
228 0.9% 98%  
229 0.8% 97%  
230 1.0% 96%  
231 1.2% 95%  
232 2% 94%  
233 3% 92%  
234 2% 89%  
235 2% 88%  
236 0.3% 86%  
237 0.4% 86%  
238 1.4% 85%  
239 2% 84%  
240 1.0% 82%  
241 0.9% 81%  
242 1.2% 80%  
243 6% 79%  
244 0.7% 72%  
245 1.2% 72%  
246 2% 71%  
247 0.5% 69%  
248 5% 68%  
249 0.5% 63%  
250 2% 63%  
251 5% 60%  
252 0.7% 56%  
253 0.6% 55%  
254 3% 54%  
255 4% 51% Median
256 1.4% 47%  
257 2% 46%  
258 2% 44%  
259 0.6% 42%  
260 2% 41%  
261 0.9% 39%  
262 1.2% 38% Last Result
263 3% 37%  
264 1.2% 34%  
265 0.4% 33%  
266 3% 33%  
267 3% 29%  
268 0.9% 26%  
269 2% 25%  
270 0.4% 24%  
271 4% 23%  
272 0.6% 19%  
273 0.4% 19%  
274 1.2% 18%  
275 0.9% 17%  
276 1.4% 16%  
277 0.9% 15%  
278 0.6% 14%  
279 2% 13%  
280 2% 11%  
281 0.6% 9%  
282 0.4% 9%  
283 0.3% 8%  
284 1.1% 8%  
285 2% 7%  
286 0.5% 5%  
287 0.3% 4%  
288 2% 4%  
289 0.5% 3%  
290 0.4% 2%  
291 0.2% 2%  
292 0.3% 1.4%  
293 0.3% 1.1%  
294 0.1% 0.8%  
295 0.2% 0.7%  
296 0.1% 0.5%  
297 0.1% 0.4%  
298 0.2% 0.3%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations