Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 16–17 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 30.0% 28.7–31.5% 28.3–31.9% 27.9–32.2% 27.3–32.9%
Conservative Party 42.4% 29.0% 27.6–30.4% 27.3–30.8% 26.9–31.2% 26.3–31.9%
Brexit Party 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.1% 10.8–13.4% 10.6–13.6% 10.1–14.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.0% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–12.0%
Green Party 1.6% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–6.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.5%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Change UK 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 267 240–285 230–287 222–294 216–299
Conservative Party 317 247 233–278 228–284 222–293 215–298
Brexit Party 0 22 15–28 12–30 9–32 6–34
Liberal Democrats 12 34 27–39 27–40 26–42 24–44
Green Party 1 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Scottish National Party 35 54 53–55 53–56 51–57 51–58
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 5 3–6 3–8 3–8 2–9

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.8%  
214 0% 99.8%  
215 0.1% 99.8%  
216 0.3% 99.7%  
217 0.4% 99.4%  
218 0.2% 99.0%  
219 0.5% 98.8%  
220 0.4% 98%  
221 0% 98%  
222 0.6% 98%  
223 0.1% 97%  
224 0.6% 97%  
225 0.1% 97%  
226 0.7% 96%  
227 0.4% 96%  
228 0.2% 95%  
229 0.1% 95%  
230 0.2% 95%  
231 0.2% 95%  
232 0.4% 95%  
233 0.1% 94%  
234 0.5% 94%  
235 0.2% 94%  
236 0.6% 93%  
237 0.3% 93%  
238 0.5% 92%  
239 1.2% 92%  
240 2% 91%  
241 0.2% 89%  
242 0.4% 89%  
243 0.2% 88%  
244 0.3% 88%  
245 1.5% 88%  
246 0.2% 86%  
247 2% 86%  
248 0.8% 84%  
249 0.5% 83%  
250 1.3% 82%  
251 0.6% 81%  
252 2% 80%  
253 0.3% 79%  
254 0.3% 79%  
255 0.8% 78%  
256 1.2% 78%  
257 0.8% 76%  
258 0.3% 75%  
259 1.1% 75%  
260 0.6% 74%  
261 0.6% 73%  
262 0.5% 73% Last Result
263 0.8% 72%  
264 4% 72%  
265 3% 68%  
266 15% 65%  
267 0.8% 50% Median
268 0.6% 50%  
269 5% 49%  
270 0.5% 45%  
271 3% 44%  
272 2% 41%  
273 2% 40%  
274 4% 38%  
275 4% 34%  
276 8% 30%  
277 2% 22%  
278 0.7% 20%  
279 1.2% 19%  
280 2% 18%  
281 0.6% 16%  
282 3% 16%  
283 0.6% 12%  
284 0.9% 12%  
285 5% 11%  
286 0.7% 6%  
287 0.8% 5%  
288 0.7% 5%  
289 0.4% 4%  
290 0.4% 3%  
291 0.2% 3%  
292 0.1% 3%  
293 0.1% 3%  
294 0.5% 3%  
295 0.2% 2%  
296 0.5% 2%  
297 0.4% 1.5%  
298 0.6% 1.1%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0.1% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0.1% 0.1%  
310 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.8%  
213 0.1% 99.8%  
214 0.1% 99.7%  
215 0.1% 99.6%  
216 0% 99.5%  
217 0.1% 99.4%  
218 0.5% 99.3%  
219 0.3% 98.8%  
220 0.4% 98%  
221 0.3% 98%  
222 0.4% 98%  
223 0.3% 97%  
224 0.2% 97%  
225 0.6% 97%  
226 0.5% 96%  
227 0.8% 96%  
228 0.3% 95%  
229 0.3% 95%  
230 1.2% 94%  
231 0.6% 93%  
232 2% 93%  
233 1.0% 91%  
234 1.2% 90%  
235 3% 88%  
236 2% 85%  
237 5% 83%  
238 0.4% 79%  
239 4% 78%  
240 5% 74%  
241 0.9% 69%  
242 0.7% 68%  
243 6% 67%  
244 2% 61%  
245 7% 59%  
246 0.6% 52%  
247 12% 52% Median
248 0.5% 40%  
249 5% 39%  
250 1.5% 34%  
251 3% 33%  
252 1.1% 30%  
253 0.4% 29%  
254 2% 29%  
255 1.0% 26%  
256 0.7% 25%  
257 0.9% 25%  
258 0.1% 24%  
259 2% 24%  
260 2% 22%  
261 2% 19%  
262 1.1% 18%  
263 0.3% 17%  
264 0.8% 17%  
265 0.4% 16%  
266 0.2% 15%  
267 0.3% 15%  
268 0.4% 15%  
269 0.2% 15%  
270 0.5% 14%  
271 1.2% 14%  
272 0.4% 13%  
273 0.3% 12%  
274 0.9% 12%  
275 0.3% 11%  
276 0.1% 11%  
277 0.5% 11%  
278 0.7% 10%  
279 0.4% 9%  
280 0.3% 9%  
281 3% 9%  
282 0.2% 6%  
283 0.1% 6%  
284 0.8% 6%  
285 0.4% 5%  
286 0.3% 5%  
287 0.3% 4%  
288 0.1% 4%  
289 0.1% 4%  
290 0.4% 4%  
291 0.3% 3%  
292 0.2% 3%  
293 0.6% 3%  
294 0.2% 2%  
295 0.6% 2%  
296 0.9% 2%  
297 0.2% 0.7%  
298 0% 0.5%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0% 0.4%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0.1% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0.1% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 0.5% 99.7%  
7 1.2% 99.2%  
8 0.1% 98%  
9 0.8% 98%  
10 0.4% 97%  
11 0.9% 97%  
12 1.4% 96%  
13 0.8% 94%  
14 1.2% 94%  
15 9% 92%  
16 3% 83%  
17 4% 80%  
18 4% 75%  
19 5% 72%  
20 2% 67%  
21 14% 65%  
22 8% 51% Median
23 13% 43%  
24 7% 30%  
25 4% 23%  
26 3% 19%  
27 3% 16%  
28 2% 12%  
29 2% 10%  
30 4% 8%  
31 2% 4%  
32 1.4% 3%  
33 0.5% 1.1%  
34 0.1% 0.6%  
35 0% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.4%  
38 0% 0.3%  
39 0% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.3% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.7%  
25 0.8% 98.9%  
26 2% 98%  
27 7% 96%  
28 3% 89%  
29 9% 86%  
30 10% 78%  
31 3% 68%  
32 5% 65%  
33 6% 60%  
34 5% 54% Median
35 23% 49%  
36 7% 26%  
37 1.4% 19%  
38 3% 18%  
39 7% 15%  
40 4% 7%  
41 1.0% 4%  
42 0.9% 3%  
43 0.4% 2%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 46% 100%  
3 51% 54% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 3% 99.6%  
52 0.1% 97%  
53 27% 97%  
54 55% 70% Median
55 7% 16%  
56 6% 9%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.5% 99.9%  
3 13% 99.4%  
4 19% 86% Last Result
5 56% 67% Median
6 4% 11%  
7 1.2% 7%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.4% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 361 94% 330–376 319–381 313–386 305–394
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 356 91% 326–371 315–376 307–382 300–390
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 325 50% 298–344 289–346 282–353 273–359
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 306 15% 291–336 286–343 281–352 273–358
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 321 42% 294–339 283–341 278–348 269–354
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 301 13% 287–330 282–338 276–347 269–352
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 306 7% 277–323 266–327 259–332 253–341
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 301 4% 272–318 261–323 253–328 246–336
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 301 4% 272–318 261–323 253–328 246–336
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 282 2% 269–309 265–316 257–325 252–328
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 282 2% 269–309 265–316 257–325 252–328
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 252 0% 238–283 233–289 227–298 220–304
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 272 0% 244–290 236–292 227–298 220–304
Labour Party – Change UK 262 267 0% 240–285 230–287 222–294 216–299
Labour Party 262 267 0% 240–285 230–287 222–294 216–299
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 247 0% 233–278 228–284 222–293 215–298
Conservative Party 317 247 0% 233–278 228–284 222–293 215–298

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0.3% 99.8%  
306 0.5% 99.5%  
307 0.1% 99.0%  
308 0.2% 98.9%  
309 0.1% 98.7%  
310 0.2% 98.6%  
311 0.3% 98%  
312 0.5% 98%  
313 0.2% 98% Last Result
314 0.4% 97%  
315 0.3% 97%  
316 0.6% 97%  
317 0.3% 96%  
318 0.3% 96%  
319 0.4% 95%  
320 0.3% 95%  
321 0.1% 95%  
322 0.3% 95%  
323 0.1% 94%  
324 0.2% 94%  
325 0.2% 94%  
326 0.2% 94% Majority
327 0.1% 94%  
328 1.0% 94%  
329 0.9% 93%  
330 2% 92%  
331 0.3% 90%  
332 0.3% 90%  
333 1.3% 89%  
334 0.3% 88%  
335 0.8% 88%  
336 0.6% 87%  
337 2% 86%  
338 0.3% 85%  
339 2% 84%  
340 0.8% 83%  
341 0.4% 82%  
342 0.4% 81%  
343 0.3% 81%  
344 0.5% 81%  
345 1.0% 80%  
346 0.8% 79%  
347 0.4% 78%  
348 1.3% 78%  
349 0.8% 77%  
350 1.2% 76%  
351 0.4% 75%  
352 2% 74%  
353 3% 72%  
354 0.6% 69%  
355 0.6% 69%  
356 5% 68%  
357 0.2% 64%  
358 2% 63%  
359 0.5% 61%  
360 10% 61% Median
361 3% 51%  
362 5% 48%  
363 2% 43%  
364 5% 41%  
365 3% 36%  
366 4% 33%  
367 0.6% 29%  
368 1.3% 28%  
369 4% 27%  
370 0.2% 23%  
371 2% 23%  
372 0.5% 21%  
373 2% 21%  
374 5% 19%  
375 1.0% 13%  
376 4% 12%  
377 1.0% 8%  
378 0.2% 7%  
379 0.8% 7%  
380 0.4% 6%  
381 1.0% 6%  
382 0.6% 5%  
383 0.4% 4%  
384 0.4% 4%  
385 0.4% 3%  
386 0.6% 3%  
387 0.3% 2%  
388 0.5% 2%  
389 0.1% 2%  
390 0% 1.4%  
391 0.2% 1.4%  
392 0.3% 1.2%  
393 0.1% 0.9%  
394 0.4% 0.8%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0.1% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.3% 99.7%  
301 0.2% 99.4%  
302 0.3% 99.2%  
303 0.3% 98.9%  
304 0% 98.5%  
305 0.3% 98%  
306 0.2% 98%  
307 0.6% 98%  
308 0.4% 97%  
309 0.3% 97% Last Result
310 0.1% 97%  
311 0.7% 97%  
312 0.4% 96%  
313 0.3% 96%  
314 0.1% 95%  
315 0.3% 95%  
316 0.2% 95%  
317 0.3% 95%  
318 0.2% 94%  
319 0.1% 94%  
320 0% 94%  
321 0.6% 94%  
322 0.2% 93%  
323 0.9% 93%  
324 0.7% 92%  
325 0.1% 91%  
326 2% 91% Majority
327 0.4% 90%  
328 0.9% 89%  
329 0.8% 88%  
330 0.7% 88%  
331 0.3% 87%  
332 1.2% 87%  
333 0.6% 85%  
334 3% 85%  
335 0.1% 82%  
336 0.8% 82%  
337 0.4% 81%  
338 0.4% 81%  
339 0.7% 81%  
340 0.3% 80%  
341 2% 80%  
342 0.7% 78%  
343 1.2% 77%  
344 0.7% 76%  
345 0.8% 75%  
346 0.4% 75%  
347 2% 74%  
348 3% 72%  
349 0.6% 69%  
350 0.6% 69%  
351 2% 68%  
352 4% 67%  
353 0.2% 63%  
354 0.3% 63%  
355 12% 62% Median
356 4% 50%  
357 0.7% 46%  
358 1.3% 46%  
359 8% 44%  
360 3% 37%  
361 1.0% 33%  
362 4% 32%  
363 0.9% 29%  
364 0.9% 28%  
365 4% 27%  
366 1.0% 22%  
367 0.9% 21%  
368 1.2% 21%  
369 6% 19%  
370 0.6% 13%  
371 3% 13%  
372 1.4% 9%  
373 0.8% 8%  
374 0.3% 7%  
375 0.5% 7%  
376 1.1% 6%  
377 0.6% 5%  
378 0.3% 4%  
379 0.5% 4%  
380 0.3% 4%  
381 0.5% 3%  
382 0.3% 3%  
383 0.7% 2%  
384 0.4% 2%  
385 0% 1.4%  
386 0.1% 1.3%  
387 0.3% 1.2%  
388 0.1% 0.9%  
389 0.3% 0.8%  
390 0.1% 0.5%  
391 0.1% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0.5% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.3%  
275 0.1% 99.2%  
276 0.1% 99.1%  
277 0.2% 99.0%  
278 0.1% 98.8%  
279 0% 98.7%  
280 0.4% 98.7%  
281 0.6% 98%  
282 0.3% 98%  
283 1.0% 97%  
284 0.1% 96%  
285 0.8% 96%  
286 0.1% 95%  
287 0.1% 95%  
288 0.1% 95%  
289 0.2% 95%  
290 0.1% 95%  
291 0.3% 95%  
292 0.2% 94%  
293 0.4% 94%  
294 0.6% 94%  
295 0.7% 93%  
296 0.4% 93%  
297 0.5% 92%  
298 3% 92%  
299 0.3% 89%  
300 0.2% 88%  
301 0.1% 88% Last Result
302 0.1% 88%  
303 0.5% 88%  
304 0.8% 87%  
305 1.1% 87%  
306 2% 85%  
307 0.2% 83%  
308 1.0% 83%  
309 0.6% 82%  
310 2% 82%  
311 0.4% 80%  
312 0.6% 79%  
313 1.1% 79%  
314 0.6% 78%  
315 1.0% 77%  
316 0.7% 76%  
317 0.3% 75%  
318 0.3% 75%  
319 0.1% 75%  
320 1.1% 75%  
321 4% 74%  
322 2% 69%  
323 1.0% 67%  
324 4% 66%  
325 13% 63%  
326 0.7% 50% Median, Majority
327 4% 49%  
328 1.3% 45%  
329 0.8% 44%  
330 3% 43%  
331 0.2% 41%  
332 5% 40%  
333 1.2% 35%  
334 8% 34%  
335 3% 26%  
336 2% 23%  
337 1.5% 21%  
338 2% 19%  
339 2% 18%  
340 3% 16%  
341 0.5% 13%  
342 0.8% 12%  
343 0.6% 11%  
344 5% 11%  
345 0.6% 6%  
346 0.9% 5%  
347 0.4% 5%  
348 0.9% 4%  
349 0.4% 3%  
350 0.1% 3%  
351 0.2% 3%  
352 0.1% 3%  
353 0.7% 3%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.4% 2%  
356 0.3% 1.2%  
357 0.2% 0.9%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.2% 0.5%  
360 0% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0% 99.5%  
275 0.3% 99.4%  
276 0.4% 99.1%  
277 0.1% 98.8%  
278 0.4% 98.7%  
279 0.4% 98%  
280 0.4% 98%  
281 0.2% 98%  
282 0.3% 97%  
283 0.3% 97%  
284 0.8% 97%  
285 0.3% 96%  
286 0.7% 96%  
287 0.9% 95%  
288 0.6% 94%  
289 0.7% 93%  
290 2% 93%  
291 2% 91%  
292 1.5% 89%  
293 1.1% 88%  
294 2% 87%  
295 4% 85%  
296 2% 80%  
297 0.7% 79%  
298 5% 78%  
299 5% 74%  
300 1.0% 69%  
301 6% 68%  
302 3% 62%  
303 0.6% 58%  
304 2% 58%  
305 4% 56%  
306 15% 52% Median
307 1.3% 36%  
308 2% 35%  
309 0.2% 33%  
310 3% 33%  
311 2% 30%  
312 0.6% 28%  
313 0.9% 28%  
314 0.5% 27%  
315 2% 26%  
316 0.2% 25%  
317 0.5% 24%  
318 2% 24%  
319 3% 22%  
320 1.5% 19%  
321 0.4% 17%  
322 0.4% 17%  
323 0.3% 16%  
324 0.5% 16%  
325 0.4% 16%  
326 0.5% 15% Majority
327 0.4% 15%  
328 0.2% 14%  
329 0.5% 14%  
330 0.5% 14%  
331 1.1% 13%  
332 0.3% 12%  
333 0.9% 12%  
334 0.4% 11%  
335 0.1% 10%  
336 0.5% 10%  
337 0.2% 10%  
338 0.6% 10%  
339 2% 9%  
340 0.9% 7%  
341 0.3% 6%  
342 0.1% 6%  
343 0.9% 6%  
344 0.2% 5%  
345 0.2% 5%  
346 0.3% 5%  
347 0.1% 4%  
348 0.5% 4%  
349 0.4% 4%  
350 0% 3%  
351 0.2% 3%  
352 0.9% 3%  
353 0.2% 2%  
354 0.6% 2%  
355 0.3% 1.4%  
356 0.1% 1.1% Last Result
357 0.2% 1.0%  
358 0.3% 0.7%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0.3% 99.8%  
269 0.3% 99.5%  
270 0.1% 99.2%  
271 0.1% 99.1%  
272 0.2% 99.0%  
273 0.4% 98.7%  
274 0.4% 98%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0.1% 98%  
278 1.1% 98%  
279 0.2% 96%  
280 0.7% 96%  
281 0.3% 96%  
282 0.1% 95%  
283 0.3% 95%  
284 0.3% 95%  
285 0.1% 94%  
286 0.1% 94%  
287 0.6% 94%  
288 0.2% 94%  
289 0.6% 94%  
290 0.5% 93%  
291 0.1% 92%  
292 0.6% 92%  
293 0.8% 92%  
294 2% 91%  
295 0.5% 89%  
296 0.1% 88%  
297 0.2% 88% Last Result
298 0.3% 88%  
299 0.9% 88%  
300 0.7% 87%  
301 2% 86%  
302 0.7% 83%  
303 0.7% 83%  
304 0.7% 82%  
305 1.2% 81%  
306 1.4% 80%  
307 0.2% 79%  
308 1.4% 79%  
309 0.1% 77%  
310 1.3% 77%  
311 0.5% 76%  
312 0.3% 75%  
313 0.6% 75%  
314 0.3% 74%  
315 1.2% 74%  
316 0.4% 73%  
317 4% 73%  
318 0.9% 69%  
319 5% 68%  
320 13% 63%  
321 0.7% 50% Median
322 0.9% 49%  
323 4% 49%  
324 2% 45%  
325 1.1% 43%  
326 0.6% 42% Majority
327 3% 41%  
328 1.3% 38%  
329 6% 37%  
330 8% 31%  
331 1.4% 22%  
332 2% 21%  
333 2% 19%  
334 1.5% 18%  
335 3% 16%  
336 0.7% 13%  
337 0.4% 12%  
338 0.6% 12%  
339 5% 11%  
340 0.6% 6%  
341 0.9% 6%  
342 0.4% 5%  
343 0.9% 4%  
344 0.3% 3%  
345 0.1% 3%  
346 0.2% 3%  
347 0.1% 3%  
348 0.4% 3%  
349 0.3% 2%  
350 0.6% 2%  
351 0.5% 1.3%  
352 0.3% 0.8%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0.1% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.5%  
270 0.1% 99.5%  
271 0.3% 99.4%  
272 0.3% 99.0%  
273 0.2% 98.7%  
274 0.5% 98.5%  
275 0.5% 98%  
276 0.2% 98%  
277 0.2% 97%  
278 0.3% 97%  
279 0.8% 97%  
280 0.5% 96%  
281 0.6% 96%  
282 0.3% 95%  
283 1.4% 95%  
284 0.5% 93%  
285 0.5% 93%  
286 2% 92%  
287 1.2% 90%  
288 3% 89%  
289 1.3% 87%  
290 5% 85%  
291 2% 80%  
292 0.7% 79%  
293 5% 78%  
294 4% 73%  
295 0.7% 69%  
296 1.0% 68%  
297 6% 67%  
298 0.5% 61%  
299 4% 61%  
300 3% 56%  
301 13% 53% Median
302 5% 40%  
303 2% 35%  
304 0.3% 33%  
305 3% 33%  
306 0.7% 30%  
307 1.2% 29%  
308 1.1% 28%  
309 0.5% 27%  
310 2% 26%  
311 0.2% 24%  
312 0.5% 24%  
313 2% 23%  
314 2% 21%  
315 1.5% 19%  
316 1.1% 18%  
317 0.3% 17%  
318 0.5% 16%  
319 0.6% 16%  
320 0.2% 15%  
321 0.3% 15%  
322 0.5% 15%  
323 0.5% 14%  
324 0.1% 14%  
325 0.5% 14%  
326 1.3% 13% Majority
327 0.2% 12%  
328 0.9% 12%  
329 0.5% 11%  
330 0.6% 10%  
331 0.3% 10%  
332 0.2% 10%  
333 0.4% 9%  
334 0.2% 9%  
335 3% 9%  
336 0.3% 6%  
337 0.1% 6%  
338 1.0% 6%  
339 0.3% 5%  
340 0.2% 5%  
341 0.3% 4%  
342 0.1% 4%  
343 0.3% 4%  
344 0.1% 4%  
345 0.3% 3%  
346 0.4% 3%  
347 0.3% 3%  
348 0.5% 2%  
349 0.7% 2%  
350 0.6% 1.3%  
351 0.1% 0.8%  
352 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
353 0% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0.2% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.6%  
252 0.1% 99.6%  
253 0.3% 99.5%  
254 0.5% 99.2%  
255 0.1% 98.7%  
256 0.6% 98.6%  
257 0.4% 98%  
258 0% 98%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 0.5% 97%  
261 0.2% 97%  
262 0.7% 97%  
263 0.2% 96%  
264 0.2% 96%  
265 0.4% 96%  
266 0.4% 95%  
267 0.2% 95%  
268 0.1% 94%  
269 0.2% 94%  
270 0.2% 94%  
271 0.3% 94%  
272 0.2% 94%  
273 0.1% 94%  
274 0.7% 93%  
275 0.5% 93%  
276 2% 92%  
277 0.4% 90%  
278 0.4% 90% Last Result
279 1.5% 89%  
280 0.4% 88%  
281 0.4% 88%  
282 1.2% 87%  
283 1.5% 86%  
284 0.3% 85%  
285 2% 84%  
286 0.7% 82%  
287 0.4% 82%  
288 0.2% 81%  
289 0.5% 81%  
290 0.2% 81%  
291 1.1% 80%  
292 2% 79%  
293 0.4% 78%  
294 0.7% 77%  
295 0.5% 77%  
296 0.6% 76%  
297 1.1% 76%  
298 2% 74%  
299 3% 72%  
300 0.2% 69%  
301 0.7% 69%  
302 0.4% 68%  
303 5% 68%  
304 0.8% 63%  
305 3% 63%  
306 13% 60% Median
307 0.3% 47%  
308 4% 46%  
309 1.4% 42%  
310 5% 40%  
311 2% 36%  
312 4% 34%  
313 1.5% 30%  
314 0.9% 28%  
315 4% 27%  
316 0.5% 23%  
317 1.1% 23%  
318 0.6% 21%  
319 2% 21%  
320 6% 19%  
321 0.7% 13%  
322 1.1% 13%  
323 4% 12%  
324 0.7% 8%  
325 0.4% 7%  
326 1.5% 7% Majority
327 0.6% 5%  
328 0.7% 5%  
329 0.4% 4%  
330 0.3% 4%  
331 0.3% 4%  
332 0.8% 3%  
333 0.4% 2%  
334 0.1% 2%  
335 0.5% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.5%  
337 0.1% 1.3%  
338 0.3% 1.2%  
339 0.1% 0.9%  
340 0.1% 0.8%  
341 0.3% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.8%  
245 0.2% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.6%  
247 0% 99.5%  
248 0% 99.5%  
249 0.9% 99.4%  
250 0% 98.5%  
251 0.8% 98%  
252 0.2% 98%  
253 0.1% 98%  
254 0.4% 97%  
255 0.3% 97%  
256 0.1% 97%  
257 0.7% 97%  
258 0.2% 96%  
259 0.3% 96%  
260 0.2% 96%  
261 0.7% 95%  
262 0.1% 95%  
263 0.3% 95%  
264 0.2% 94%  
265 0.2% 94%  
266 0.1% 94%  
267 0.3% 94%  
268 0.6% 94%  
269 0.7% 93%  
270 0.4% 92%  
271 0.3% 92%  
272 2% 92%  
273 0.6% 90%  
274 0.8% 89% Last Result
275 0.7% 88%  
276 0.4% 88%  
277 1.4% 87%  
278 0.3% 86%  
279 0.5% 86%  
280 3% 85%  
281 0.3% 82%  
282 0.8% 82%  
283 0.2% 81%  
284 0.4% 81%  
285 0.4% 81%  
286 0.6% 80%  
287 2% 80%  
288 0.3% 77%  
289 0.9% 77%  
290 0.5% 76%  
291 0.3% 76%  
292 0.6% 75%  
293 2% 75%  
294 3% 72%  
295 0.6% 69%  
296 0.7% 69%  
297 0.5% 68%  
298 1.1% 67%  
299 5% 66%  
300 0.3% 62%  
301 13% 61% Median
302 2% 48%  
303 2% 46%  
304 0.7% 44%  
305 7% 43%  
306 3% 37%  
307 1.4% 34%  
308 3% 33%  
309 2% 29%  
310 1.1% 28%  
311 3% 26%  
312 2% 23%  
313 0.4% 21%  
314 1.3% 21%  
315 7% 20%  
316 0.5% 13%  
317 0.7% 13%  
318 3% 12%  
319 2% 9%  
320 0.3% 7%  
321 0.8% 7%  
322 0.6% 6%  
323 1.0% 5%  
324 0.1% 4%  
325 0.3% 4%  
326 0.5% 4% Majority
327 0.8% 3%  
328 0.2% 3%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.7% 2%  
331 0.2% 1.5%  
332 0.1% 1.3%  
333 0.3% 1.2%  
334 0.1% 0.9%  
335 0% 0.8%  
336 0.3% 0.8%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.8%  
245 0.2% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.6%  
247 0% 99.5%  
248 0% 99.5%  
249 0.9% 99.4%  
250 0% 98.5%  
251 0.8% 98%  
252 0.2% 98%  
253 0.1% 98%  
254 0.4% 97%  
255 0.3% 97%  
256 0.1% 97%  
257 0.7% 97%  
258 0.2% 96%  
259 0.3% 96%  
260 0.2% 96%  
261 0.7% 95%  
262 0.1% 95%  
263 0.3% 95%  
264 0.2% 94%  
265 0.2% 94%  
266 0.1% 94%  
267 0.3% 94%  
268 0.6% 94%  
269 0.7% 93%  
270 0.4% 92%  
271 0.3% 92%  
272 2% 92%  
273 0.6% 90%  
274 0.8% 89% Last Result
275 0.7% 88%  
276 0.4% 88%  
277 1.4% 87%  
278 0.3% 86%  
279 0.5% 86%  
280 3% 85%  
281 0.3% 82%  
282 0.8% 82%  
283 0.2% 81%  
284 0.4% 81%  
285 0.4% 81%  
286 0.6% 80%  
287 2% 80%  
288 0.3% 77%  
289 0.9% 77%  
290 0.5% 76%  
291 0.3% 76%  
292 0.6% 75%  
293 2% 75%  
294 3% 72%  
295 0.6% 69%  
296 0.7% 69%  
297 0.5% 68%  
298 1.1% 67%  
299 5% 66%  
300 0.3% 62%  
301 13% 61% Median
302 2% 48%  
303 2% 46%  
304 0.7% 44%  
305 7% 43%  
306 3% 37%  
307 1.4% 34%  
308 3% 33%  
309 2% 29%  
310 1.1% 28%  
311 3% 26%  
312 2% 23%  
313 0.4% 21%  
314 1.3% 21%  
315 7% 20%  
316 0.5% 13%  
317 0.7% 13%  
318 3% 12%  
319 2% 9%  
320 0.3% 7%  
321 0.8% 7%  
322 0.6% 6%  
323 1.0% 5%  
324 0.1% 4%  
325 0.3% 4%  
326 0.5% 4% Majority
327 0.8% 3%  
328 0.2% 3%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.7% 2%  
331 0.2% 1.5%  
332 0.1% 1.3%  
333 0.3% 1.2%  
334 0.1% 0.9%  
335 0% 0.8%  
336 0.3% 0.8%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.2% 99.5%  
253 0.1% 99.3%  
254 0.4% 99.2%  
255 0.7% 98.8%  
256 0.4% 98%  
257 0.2% 98%  
258 0.4% 97%  
259 0.2% 97%  
260 0.3% 97%  
261 0.3% 97%  
262 0.4% 96%  
263 0.2% 96%  
264 0.5% 96%  
265 0.3% 95%  
266 0.7% 95%  
267 1.3% 94%  
268 2% 93%  
269 8% 91%  
270 3% 83%  
271 2% 80%  
272 4% 78%  
273 4% 74%  
274 1.0% 70%  
275 6% 69%  
276 3% 62%  
277 0.8% 60%  
278 4% 59%  
279 0.7% 55%  
280 4% 54%  
281 0.8% 51% Median
282 16% 50%  
283 0.4% 34%  
284 4% 34%  
285 2% 30%  
286 2% 28%  
287 0.2% 26%  
288 0.5% 26%  
289 0.6% 25%  
290 0.5% 25%  
291 2% 24%  
292 1.2% 22%  
293 2% 21%  
294 0.9% 19%  
295 0.8% 18%  
296 0.9% 18%  
297 0.9% 17%  
298 1.0% 16%  
299 0.2% 15%  
300 0.1% 15%  
301 0.4% 14%  
302 0.3% 14%  
303 1.0% 14%  
304 0.5% 13%  
305 0.7% 12%  
306 0.5% 12%  
307 0.4% 11%  
308 0.6% 11%  
309 0.2% 10%  
310 0.3% 10%  
311 2% 10%  
312 0.1% 8%  
313 2% 8%  
314 0.2% 6%  
315 0.7% 6%  
316 0.2% 5%  
317 0.1% 5%  
318 0.1% 5%  
319 0.2% 5%  
320 0.2% 4%  
321 0.2% 4%  
322 0.9% 4%  
323 0.1% 3%  
324 0.3% 3%  
325 0.5% 3%  
326 0.6% 2% Majority
327 0.4% 1.5%  
328 0.6% 1.1%  
329 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.2% 99.5%  
253 0.1% 99.3%  
254 0.4% 99.2%  
255 0.7% 98.8%  
256 0.4% 98%  
257 0.2% 98%  
258 0.4% 97%  
259 0.2% 97%  
260 0.3% 97%  
261 0.3% 97%  
262 0.4% 96%  
263 0.2% 96%  
264 0.5% 96%  
265 0.3% 95%  
266 0.7% 95%  
267 1.3% 94%  
268 2% 93%  
269 8% 91%  
270 3% 83%  
271 2% 80%  
272 4% 78%  
273 4% 74%  
274 1.0% 70%  
275 6% 69%  
276 3% 62%  
277 0.8% 60%  
278 4% 59%  
279 0.7% 55%  
280 4% 54%  
281 0.8% 51% Median
282 16% 50%  
283 0.4% 34%  
284 4% 34%  
285 2% 30%  
286 2% 28%  
287 0.2% 26%  
288 0.5% 26%  
289 0.6% 25%  
290 0.5% 25%  
291 2% 24%  
292 1.2% 22%  
293 2% 21%  
294 0.9% 19%  
295 0.8% 18%  
296 0.9% 18%  
297 0.9% 17%  
298 1.0% 16%  
299 0.2% 15%  
300 0.1% 15%  
301 0.4% 14%  
302 0.3% 14%  
303 1.0% 14%  
304 0.5% 13%  
305 0.7% 12%  
306 0.5% 12%  
307 0.4% 11%  
308 0.6% 11%  
309 0.2% 10%  
310 0.3% 10%  
311 2% 10%  
312 0.1% 8%  
313 2% 8%  
314 0.2% 6%  
315 0.7% 6%  
316 0.2% 5%  
317 0.1% 5%  
318 0.1% 5%  
319 0.2% 5%  
320 0.2% 4%  
321 0.2% 4%  
322 0.9% 4%  
323 0.1% 3%  
324 0.3% 3%  
325 0.5% 3%  
326 0.6% 2% Majority
327 0.4% 1.5%  
328 0.6% 1.1%  
329 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.7%  
219 0.1% 99.7%  
220 0.1% 99.5%  
221 0.2% 99.4%  
222 0.3% 99.2%  
223 0.3% 98.9%  
224 0.1% 98.6%  
225 0.4% 98%  
226 0.3% 98%  
227 0.4% 98%  
228 0.3% 97%  
229 0.2% 97%  
230 0.6% 97%  
231 0.5% 96%  
232 0.7% 96%  
233 0.4% 95%  
234 0.7% 95%  
235 0.9% 94%  
236 1.4% 93%  
237 1.4% 92%  
238 2% 90%  
239 1.2% 89%  
240 2% 87%  
241 2% 85%  
242 4% 83%  
243 0.6% 79%  
244 4% 78%  
245 4% 74%  
246 1.3% 69%  
247 6% 68%  
248 3% 62%  
249 2% 58%  
250 4% 57%  
251 0.8% 52%  
252 13% 52% Median
253 3% 39%  
254 0.7% 35%  
255 2% 35%  
256 3% 32%  
257 1.0% 30%  
258 0.6% 29%  
259 1.3% 28%  
260 1.3% 27%  
261 0.4% 25%  
262 0.7% 25%  
263 0.2% 24%  
264 2% 24%  
265 3% 22%  
266 2% 19%  
267 0.2% 17%  
268 0.5% 17%  
269 0.8% 17%  
270 0.4% 16%  
271 0.1% 15%  
272 0.2% 15%  
273 0.6% 15%  
274 0.1% 14%  
275 0.6% 14%  
276 1.2% 14%  
277 0.2% 12%  
278 0.5% 12%  
279 1.0% 12%  
280 0.2% 11%  
281 0.1% 11%  
282 0.4% 11%  
283 0.5% 10%  
284 0.2% 10%  
285 2% 9%  
286 0.9% 7%  
287 0.2% 6%  
288 0% 6%  
289 0.9% 6%  
290 0.4% 5%  
291 0% 5%  
292 0.3% 5%  
293 0.1% 4%  
294 0.4% 4%  
295 0.4% 4%  
296 0.2% 3%  
297 0.1% 3%  
298 0.7% 3%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0.2% 2%  
301 0.8% 2%  
302 0.1% 0.9%  
303 0.1% 0.8%  
304 0.3% 0.8%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0% 0.3%  
307 0.1% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0.1% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0.1% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.3% 99.8%  
221 0% 99.5%  
222 0.5% 99.4%  
223 0.1% 99.0%  
224 0.2% 98.8%  
225 0.1% 98.6%  
226 0.2% 98.6%  
227 1.1% 98%  
228 0.3% 97%  
229 0.6% 97%  
230 0.2% 96%  
231 0.9% 96%  
232 0.1% 95%  
233 0.1% 95%  
234 0% 95%  
235 0.1% 95%  
236 0.2% 95%  
237 0.4% 95%  
238 0.2% 94%  
239 0.3% 94%  
240 0.4% 94%  
241 0.3% 94%  
242 0.6% 93%  
243 0.8% 93%  
244 3% 92%  
245 0.4% 89%  
246 0.1% 88%  
247 0.3% 88%  
248 0.1% 88%  
249 0.3% 88%  
250 1.3% 88%  
251 0.9% 86%  
252 2% 85%  
253 0.5% 83%  
254 0.4% 83%  
255 2% 83%  
256 1.0% 81%  
257 0.6% 80%  
258 0.3% 79%  
259 0.7% 79%  
260 0.6% 78%  
261 0.9% 78%  
262 0.8% 77%  
263 0.5% 76%  
264 1.2% 75%  
265 0.4% 74%  
266 0.4% 74% Last Result
267 0.3% 73%  
268 4% 73%  
269 2% 69%  
270 3% 67%  
271 13% 63%  
272 1.1% 50% Median
273 4% 49%  
274 1.4% 46%  
275 1.1% 44%  
276 0.8% 43%  
277 3% 42%  
278 4% 39%  
279 5% 35%  
280 4% 30%  
281 4% 26%  
282 2% 22%  
283 1.0% 20%  
284 1.4% 19%  
285 2% 18%  
286 0.8% 16%  
287 3% 15%  
288 0.8% 12%  
289 0.8% 12%  
290 5% 11%  
291 0.8% 6%  
292 1.0% 5%  
293 0.9% 4%  
294 0.4% 4%  
295 0.1% 3%  
296 0.2% 3%  
297 0.2% 3%  
298 0.1% 3%  
299 0.7% 2%  
300 0.1% 2%  
301 0.2% 2%  
302 0.4% 1.4%  
303 0.5% 1.1%  
304 0.1% 0.6%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0% 0.3%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0.1% 0.1%  
315 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.8%  
214 0% 99.8%  
215 0.1% 99.8%  
216 0.3% 99.7%  
217 0.4% 99.4%  
218 0.2% 99.0%  
219 0.5% 98.8%  
220 0.4% 98%  
221 0% 98%  
222 0.6% 98%  
223 0.1% 97%  
224 0.6% 97%  
225 0.1% 97%  
226 0.7% 96%  
227 0.4% 96%  
228 0.2% 95%  
229 0.1% 95%  
230 0.2% 95%  
231 0.2% 95%  
232 0.4% 95%  
233 0.1% 94%  
234 0.5% 94%  
235 0.2% 94%  
236 0.6% 93%  
237 0.3% 93%  
238 0.5% 92%  
239 1.2% 92%  
240 2% 91%  
241 0.2% 89%  
242 0.4% 89%  
243 0.2% 88%  
244 0.3% 88%  
245 1.5% 88%  
246 0.2% 86%  
247 2% 86%  
248 0.8% 84%  
249 0.5% 83%  
250 1.3% 82%  
251 0.6% 81%  
252 2% 80%  
253 0.3% 79%  
254 0.3% 79%  
255 0.8% 78%  
256 1.2% 78%  
257 0.8% 76%  
258 0.3% 75%  
259 1.1% 75%  
260 0.6% 74%  
261 0.6% 73%  
262 0.5% 73% Last Result
263 0.8% 72%  
264 4% 72%  
265 3% 68%  
266 15% 65%  
267 0.8% 50% Median
268 0.6% 50%  
269 5% 49%  
270 0.5% 45%  
271 3% 44%  
272 2% 41%  
273 2% 40%  
274 4% 38%  
275 4% 34%  
276 8% 30%  
277 2% 22%  
278 0.7% 20%  
279 1.2% 19%  
280 2% 18%  
281 0.6% 16%  
282 3% 16%  
283 0.6% 12%  
284 0.9% 12%  
285 5% 11%  
286 0.7% 6%  
287 0.8% 5%  
288 0.7% 5%  
289 0.4% 4%  
290 0.4% 3%  
291 0.2% 3%  
292 0.1% 3%  
293 0.1% 3%  
294 0.5% 3%  
295 0.2% 2%  
296 0.5% 2%  
297 0.4% 1.5%  
298 0.6% 1.1%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0.1% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0.1% 0.1%  
310 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.8%  
214 0% 99.8%  
215 0.1% 99.8%  
216 0.3% 99.7%  
217 0.4% 99.4%  
218 0.2% 99.0%  
219 0.5% 98.8%  
220 0.4% 98%  
221 0% 98%  
222 0.6% 98%  
223 0.1% 97%  
224 0.6% 97%  
225 0.1% 97%  
226 0.7% 96%  
227 0.4% 96%  
228 0.2% 95%  
229 0.1% 95%  
230 0.2% 95%  
231 0.2% 95%  
232 0.4% 95%  
233 0.1% 94%  
234 0.5% 94%  
235 0.2% 94%  
236 0.6% 93%  
237 0.3% 93%  
238 0.5% 92%  
239 1.2% 92%  
240 2% 91%  
241 0.2% 89%  
242 0.4% 89%  
243 0.2% 88%  
244 0.3% 88%  
245 1.5% 88%  
246 0.2% 86%  
247 2% 86%  
248 0.8% 84%  
249 0.5% 83%  
250 1.3% 82%  
251 0.6% 81%  
252 2% 80%  
253 0.3% 79%  
254 0.3% 79%  
255 0.8% 78%  
256 1.2% 78%  
257 0.8% 76%  
258 0.3% 75%  
259 1.1% 75%  
260 0.6% 74%  
261 0.6% 73%  
262 0.5% 73% Last Result
263 0.8% 72%  
264 4% 72%  
265 3% 68%  
266 15% 65%  
267 0.8% 50% Median
268 0.6% 50%  
269 5% 49%  
270 0.5% 45%  
271 3% 44%  
272 2% 41%  
273 2% 40%  
274 4% 38%  
275 4% 34%  
276 8% 30%  
277 2% 22%  
278 0.7% 20%  
279 1.2% 19%  
280 2% 18%  
281 0.6% 16%  
282 3% 16%  
283 0.6% 12%  
284 0.9% 12%  
285 5% 11%  
286 0.7% 6%  
287 0.8% 5%  
288 0.7% 5%  
289 0.4% 4%  
290 0.4% 3%  
291 0.2% 3%  
292 0.1% 3%  
293 0.1% 3%  
294 0.5% 3%  
295 0.2% 2%  
296 0.5% 2%  
297 0.4% 1.5%  
298 0.6% 1.1%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0.1% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0.1% 0.1%  
310 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.8%  
213 0.1% 99.8%  
214 0.1% 99.7%  
215 0.1% 99.6%  
216 0% 99.5%  
217 0.1% 99.4%  
218 0.5% 99.3%  
219 0.3% 98.8%  
220 0.4% 98%  
221 0.3% 98%  
222 0.4% 98%  
223 0.3% 97%  
224 0.2% 97%  
225 0.6% 97%  
226 0.5% 96%  
227 0.8% 96%  
228 0.3% 95%  
229 0.3% 95%  
230 1.2% 94%  
231 0.6% 93%  
232 2% 93%  
233 1.0% 91%  
234 1.2% 90%  
235 3% 88%  
236 2% 85%  
237 5% 83%  
238 0.4% 79%  
239 4% 78%  
240 5% 74%  
241 0.9% 69%  
242 0.7% 68%  
243 6% 67%  
244 2% 61%  
245 7% 59%  
246 0.6% 52%  
247 12% 52% Median
248 0.5% 40%  
249 5% 39%  
250 1.5% 34%  
251 3% 33%  
252 1.1% 30%  
253 0.4% 29%  
254 2% 29%  
255 1.0% 26%  
256 0.7% 25%  
257 0.9% 25%  
258 0.1% 24%  
259 2% 24%  
260 2% 22%  
261 2% 19%  
262 1.1% 18%  
263 0.3% 17%  
264 0.8% 17%  
265 0.4% 16%  
266 0.2% 15%  
267 0.3% 15%  
268 0.4% 15%  
269 0.2% 15%  
270 0.5% 14%  
271 1.2% 14%  
272 0.4% 13%  
273 0.3% 12%  
274 0.9% 12%  
275 0.3% 11%  
276 0.1% 11%  
277 0.5% 11%  
278 0.7% 10%  
279 0.4% 9%  
280 0.3% 9%  
281 3% 9%  
282 0.2% 6%  
283 0.1% 6%  
284 0.8% 6%  
285 0.4% 5%  
286 0.3% 5%  
287 0.3% 4%  
288 0.1% 4%  
289 0.1% 4%  
290 0.4% 4%  
291 0.3% 3%  
292 0.2% 3%  
293 0.6% 3%  
294 0.2% 2%  
295 0.6% 2%  
296 0.9% 2%  
297 0.2% 0.7%  
298 0% 0.5%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0% 0.4%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0.1% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0.1% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.8%  
213 0.1% 99.8%  
214 0.1% 99.7%  
215 0.1% 99.6%  
216 0% 99.5%  
217 0.1% 99.4%  
218 0.5% 99.3%  
219 0.3% 98.8%  
220 0.4% 98%  
221 0.3% 98%  
222 0.4% 98%  
223 0.3% 97%  
224 0.2% 97%  
225 0.6% 97%  
226 0.5% 96%  
227 0.8% 96%  
228 0.3% 95%  
229 0.3% 95%  
230 1.2% 94%  
231 0.6% 93%  
232 2% 93%  
233 1.0% 91%  
234 1.2% 90%  
235 3% 88%  
236 2% 85%  
237 5% 83%  
238 0.4% 79%  
239 4% 78%  
240 5% 74%  
241 0.9% 69%  
242 0.7% 68%  
243 6% 67%  
244 2% 61%  
245 7% 59%  
246 0.6% 52%  
247 12% 52% Median
248 0.5% 40%  
249 5% 39%  
250 1.5% 34%  
251 3% 33%  
252 1.1% 30%  
253 0.4% 29%  
254 2% 29%  
255 1.0% 26%  
256 0.7% 25%  
257 0.9% 25%  
258 0.1% 24%  
259 2% 24%  
260 2% 22%  
261 2% 19%  
262 1.1% 18%  
263 0.3% 17%  
264 0.8% 17%  
265 0.4% 16%  
266 0.2% 15%  
267 0.3% 15%  
268 0.4% 15%  
269 0.2% 15%  
270 0.5% 14%  
271 1.2% 14%  
272 0.4% 13%  
273 0.3% 12%  
274 0.9% 12%  
275 0.3% 11%  
276 0.1% 11%  
277 0.5% 11%  
278 0.7% 10%  
279 0.4% 9%  
280 0.3% 9%  
281 3% 9%  
282 0.2% 6%  
283 0.1% 6%  
284 0.8% 6%  
285 0.4% 5%  
286 0.3% 5%  
287 0.3% 4%  
288 0.1% 4%  
289 0.1% 4%  
290 0.4% 4%  
291 0.3% 3%  
292 0.2% 3%  
293 0.6% 3%  
294 0.2% 2%  
295 0.6% 2%  
296 0.9% 2%  
297 0.2% 0.7%  
298 0% 0.5%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0% 0.4%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0.1% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0.1% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations